Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden

[brooklynite]

A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden?leadSource=uverify%20wall#xj4y7vzkg

[live love laugh]

1. LOL: Since it's not here yet they're "projecting" ... as Republicans do.

Bullshit move.

[brooklynite]

9. Michael Bloomberg is a pro-Biden Democrat...

...and the quality of his company's economic analysis is why he's a billionaire today.

[live love laugh]

14. Bloomberg: Republican/ Independent/ Democrat

He’s been all three.

This projection seems far from pro-Biden.

[brooklynite]

15. The forecast isn't intended to be "pro-anyone". It is company's business analysis.

Biden YouTube site: Mike Bloomberg endorsement speech.

[live love laugh]

16. As a "blow" it's definitely not "pro".

[Demsrule86]

24. He hates Biden.

[brooklynite]

25. And Biden added his endorsement to the 2020 convention because...

[Demsrule86]

2. We shall see. I don't think this is normal...first of all if we a recession it will be because of

the misguided Fed policies over raising interest rates over greedflation...but I don't think we will have one...just another example of collusion to elect Republicans.

[HUAJIAO]

7. What happens to T-Bill yields in a recession?

[SWBTATTReg]

3. A 100%? Yeah, right. Awful damn brave to put a 100% number on this, eh?

[Mad_Machine76]

8. Is anything like this

ever THAT certain?!

[Elessar Zappa]

4. Isn't a recession coming because of the Fed's recent actions?

I thought one of the possible consequences from raising interest rates is a recession.

[Takket]

5. Uh huh

Remember earlier this year when they were saying we were ALREADY in a recession?

[Mad_Machine76]

6. If people know this is coming

why can't we work to prevent it?


Lots of bad news for Biden/Democrats all of the sudden..........

[Sympthsical]

10. It's not all of a sudden

This was all known some months ago. I remember having these conversations here back in July while discussing inflation and gas prices.

If people decide to ostrich entire situations, at some point that's on them.

[cilla4progress]

13. I think you miss their point.

Check WAPO's headlines. Good things are happening too, but all they disseminate is "news" that hurts Dems.

[Sympthsical]

17. Confirmation bias

In the past week, we've had an inflation report (which was largely ignored here) showing things continuing their shitty trend. We have new polling showing a shift towards Republicans. We also have new polling showing public priorities shifting towards issues we're not really running on.

I've seen good points and silver linings in places. But it seems like if the media aren't blasting all the news that's fit for a partisan bubble, then they're being biased.

I just finished combing through the Harvard/HarrisX poll that showed January 6th rank 19th on issues voters give a shit about.

19th.

*looks at DU* *looks at poll* *looks at DU* Are we really going to argue we have our fingers on the pulse of what's happening in this country?

If people can't feel the disconnect between what they want to be true, what they perceive to be true, and what actually is true with the American electorate and how things are going, I don't know what to say. It's the problem with curated content. The obvious often doesn't make it through. And when the obvious is stated, it's just media bias. "You know how they are!" It's like quoting Jesus to right-wing Christianists. It gets a blink and a continued ignore.

Which is fine. But I choose not to worship at Our Lady of the Perpetually Surprised.

[Sympthsical]

18. And I just checked WaPo's headlines. (2nd reply)

What's the problem here? The headlines in politics are as follows:

Trump’s long history of trafficking in antisemitic tropes

The potential sleeper races of 2022

Walker concedes giving check to ex-partner, denies knowing it was for abortion

Post Politics Now: More debates in marquee races playing out ahead of midterms

White House calls Trump’s attack on American Jews antisemitic

Ok, we're five headlines in. I see no radically biased headlines yet. I'll keep digging.

The top 10 Democratic presidential candidates for 2024, ranked

The new Jan. 6 video, and the other baseless GOP claim about Pelosi

5 takeaways from the latest Jan. 6 hearing

Trump’s fast-growing obstruction of justice problem

CDC officials describe intense pressure, job threats from Trump White House

So let's get this straight. Those are the Top 10 headlines on WaPo as I type this. And your argument is that they are just super biased towards the Right?

Really?

[cilla4progress]

19. Those are headlines.

Did you read the articles?

And it's not specificall only WAPO.

[Sympthsical]

21. Yes, I read the articles

If that place is just hopelessly right-wing biased, I honestly don't think any media would satisfy outside of one heavily curated to one's partisan preferences.

It's not specific to WaPo, but you called them out, and it seems there's little objective basis for it. Just a perception and claim.

I honestly think I could make a lot of money creating a heavily biased news site where it sounds objective, but it's carefully curated to only discuss things in subtly favorable ways. Nothing overtly partisan. Just take the daily news and clip out the unpleasant bits. Maybe decontextualize. I could call it Only Blue Vibes (gotta get Gen Z eyeballs in there). I'd have a poll section that is only the good parts. And if things don't work out - i.e. surprising election results - I'd just find a columnist to write about how it was all a conspiracy. Problem. Solved.

The thing is, it'd probably work.

[cilla4progress]

26. You say po-tah-to I say po-tay-to -

I wish I had time to curate news article to make my point...I note bias in MSM as do many others. One lame example I can give is SNL's mocking this weekend of Pelosi and Schumer panicking thinking with credibility that their lives were in danger, as well as SNL's relentless mocking of Biden for his age.

[cilla4progress]

11. I am noticing this

Guess MSM is all in for autocracy, too.
'
So much easier to have a dictator make all the hard decisions. Until they start dragging off dissenters...

[Bettie]

12. The Fed is actively working to create a recession

and of course there's lot of bad news for Biden/Dems....that's what the media does, they fluff Republicans and scream about the world ending for Democrats.

We could be in a full-on depression and if a Republican was in the White House, the media would be lauding the great economic leadership of whoever that guy was.

[ismnotwasm]

20. I thought the coming recession was common knowledge?

It’s not a personal “blow to Biden” but a natural fallout of emerging from a pandemic, among other economic stressors. I get the optics factor though

[cilla4progress]

27. It's

the spin

[FakeNoose]

22. Why isn't Bloomberg talking about how Chump plundered the U.S. Treasury like a drunken sailor

... for 4 blessed years!

Of course the Dems have to suck it up and pay the bills now, because we're Democrats and that's what we do.
We clean up their messes. Every.stinking.time.

[WarGamer]

23. We're already IN a recession... I do agree that 23 will be worse.

https://fortune.com/2022/10/10/global-recession-already-hitting-major-economies-morgan-stanley/

‘This debate to some extent is over.’ Major economies are already in a global recession, Morgan Stanley strategist says