Something is off. The early vote numbers (while super early) simply do not match the narrative

[Demsrule86]

coming from that wonky NY Times poll.

UPDATE: After two days, Georgia Early Voting is now surpassing 2020! Not 2018, but 2020! Anyone comparing this to a low turnout midterm of years past will be wrong. It’s that simple : abcnews.go.com/…

There were such strange numbers in the small sample of that poll—high black GOP support, independent women swinging so hard to the right, so few new voters (which flies hard in the face of every special election this year)— and the liberal twitter narrative and mainstream pundits just decided to jump all over it and prep for doom. Every mainstream pundit and election analyst, with the notable exception of Rachel Bitecofer, seem practically rooting for a GOP wave. It’s so strange.

The irony of these analysts is that for them to keep their jobs in 2025, they have to prove to be awful at their jobs in 2022! May it be so.

That’s really all I wanted to say. Something is OFF, something is off in the likely voting model. I’m not hoping it is. We are seeing that it is. As an amateur data nerd, I can tell when numbers don’t add up, and these numbers aren’t adding up between “likely” voter screens and the real results of who is voting in 2022.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/19/2129893/-Something-is-Off

[Demsrule86]

1. This is what I believe. And to those who breathlessly post such things as 'facts'. Please stop!

We get enough of that from the liberal media. Of course, there is no liberal media hence the sarcasm.

[SheltieLover]

12. I couldn't agree more!

My only hope is that by the media being so skewed, it fires up Blue voters.

All that said, the avg American is not nearly as aware of the goings on as we are again, in large part, due to the media.

Perhaps our talking heads should consider an internship in russia. See how they enjoy what they are pushing!

Thx for posting!

[Walleye]

2. I don't know how many pundits I have heard say "when the Republicans take over the house" not if

And if they turn out to be wrong they will never admit it. They will act with the same sort of confidence next time around

[Demsrule86]

3. I agree with that...these folks are not on our side...and they have cheerleaders even here.

[Walleye]

5. It's almost as if opinion polls are more important to them than the actual election

I think we need to do some basic messaging on what elections are actually for. To determine the will of the people. The GOP has completely forgotten that

[Demsrule86]

8. Yes they have forgotten this...they don't give a damn IMHO...most are rich enough so it doesn't

matter to them who governs.

[Quixote1818]

4. Michael Moore tends to have good instincts and he isn't buying the polling either. nt

[Demsrule86]

9. Michael Moore has gotten on my last nerve forever!!! But often, he has been correct and I have been

wrong...I read all of his reasons for why we will win...there are 13 or 14 and they make sense. I hope he and I are both right (I agree with him completely).

[KPN]

57. +++

[pwb]

6. Yeah

Women are pissed and the wealth class owned media can't hide it much longer. Every puke defeated will be by Women. Roevember.

[Demsrule86]

10. Roevember is coming.

[Sky Jewels]

70. And Roectober is here!

[GreenWave]

7. An outlier poll and "our" "pundits" are out lying with it.

[Demsrule86]

14. I think they are lying and are deliberately trying to help the GOP...They use parameters which

don't even consider Roe. That is not by accident.

[sarcasmo]

65. I saw one poll where only 5 percent said Abortion was the issue. Rigging the polls on purpose.

[Elessar Zappa]

11. Yeah, it doesn't make sense.

This huge early turnout favors us. I do think there’s a chance the GOP wins the House but there’s an equal or more chance that we hold it. And I’m certain we’ll keep the Senate.

[Demsrule86]

15. I think the House could go either way with gerrymandering and all but I think we get the Senate and

with Roe we may very well get the House. The media may be hoping for a big fight about 'stealing' the election for ratings and just to fuck with Democrats...and the polls can be used to say we 'stole the election.

[dchill]

74. They're cherry picking bogus, low count polls to show that...

..."all of a sudden" voters swung from preferring Democrats to preferring Republicans. And that's the New York Times, using a poll with fewer than 800 responders! Let's not forget that the NYT may go out of business if Trump is not in the news. Pretty much the same for the major Media. Hmmm.....

[Meadowoak]

13. Because polls are all bullshit, supposed to make us think we've already lost,

Might as well just stay home. Just GOTV,. We can win any race, if we just GOTV. A high turnout ALWAYS favors the Democrats.

[Demsrule86]

17. I think if we show up, we win. And in Georgia they are showing up!

[Meadowoak]

20. Yep, there are a lot more of us than them, we always win if we

Show up.

[Demsrule86]

22. Fired up and ready to go...

[jaxexpat]

41. That is true. So true, in fact, that Republicans have gone to full on absurdity.

Absurd voter intimidation, absurd gerrymandering, absurd election result denial, Republicans have the absurdity caucus totally sewn up. The amazing thing about it is how anybody swallows their crap, but there are apparently some of them who seem to prefer it, and those folks are loud and sought out by so many of media's microphone holders.

The question at this time is, "how real is the possibility of a majority of the voters supporting absurdity?"

Straight Democratic ticket! Any other process is flawed.

[Meadowoak]

43. +1

[Demsrule86]

46. Absolutely right. I can't wait.

[Sky Jewels]

23. And in other states, including Pennsylvania.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/20/2130162/-More-Americans-Are-Voting-Early-but-What-Does-That-Mean-Here-are-some-details

[BumRushDaShow]

68. Thank you for that link because it has a link to here

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?state=PA&view_type=state

When it comes to PA - anything referencing "early voting" and "2018" needs to be tossed out because Act-77 that authorized "no-excuse absentee ballots" was not in effect. The law was passed at the end of October 2019 and was effective as of April 2020, with the first "test" of it in an election came with what became a delayed April primary (due to COVID) to June. PA also has no traditional "early" (in person) voting.

The 2018 ballots were the "traditional" absentee ballots (with specific excuses required - e.g., out of town on election day, in a medical facility, etc).

The below was their data run as of today (Oct. 20, 2022)




This is remarkable considering that since 2020, we have had 3 more elections (2021 primary, 2021 general, 2022 primary) and this type of ballot return rate is fantastic - assuming their modeling is anywhere near close!!

I got my mail ballot on Wed. Oct. 12, I mailed it on Fri. Oct. 14, and I got a notification back from the state that my ballot had been "received timely and recorded" on Tues. Oct. 18.

In general, the turnout has been "higher" (in quotes) for years with gubernatorial elections, which this year is. Only fly might be that in 2020, this process was still "new", so that might have affected some of the use of it vs "in person". Plus now that we are almost back to "normal" (at least here in Philly) with number of polling locations compared to 2020, then there may still be quite a few (D)s voting "in person".... But still....

[Sky Jewels]

69. Yes, it's pretty astounding, IMO.

Especially considering this: The 2022 numbers do not yet include ballots cast in Philadelphia county, whereas the 2020 and 2018 numbers do.

[BumRushDaShow]

71. This city alone represents abourt 15% of the state's vote and we are about 80% (D)

I know various groups have been working hard canvassing around here and where I live, I was visited by someone who apparently lives nearby who is working with Indivisible.

My part of the city already traditionally has the highest voter turnout in Philly (tying or superseding downtown) so we are a guarantee here.

[Sky Jewels]

73. Great news!

[Wednesdays]

77. Wow.

GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!

[SergeStorms]

62. Bingo.

It worked for Trump voters in the special Senatorial election in Georgia. Let's give it a try on Democrats and see what happens.

They're going to pull out all the stops on this election. Everyone just get your behinds out there and vote, whether early voting, absentee, or on election day. VOTE!

[onenote]

16. Are there numbers for mailed-in absentee ballots?

In 2020, every voter in Georgia was mailed an absentee ballot. A lot of people did not want to vote in person, early or otherwise. Now people are less concerned about COVID and the rules for mailed in ballots have been tightened. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the increased in-person voting is offset by a reduction in mailed-in ballots.

[Demsrule86]

18. They called it early voting so I think people are showing up at early voting sites. I have heard

nothing about mail-in. But the numbers are huge...presidential levels.

[onenote]

19. Again, as my post suggests, early in-person voting in 2020 was impacted by COVID

The fact that more people are showing up to vote early isn't surprising. The question is whether there has been a decrease in the number of people voting by mail that offsets this increase.

On edit: The numbers from the Georgia Secretary of State's office suggest the gain may not be as great as suggested.

Turnout Numbers Through 10/18/2022

Total Turnout: 291,740
Early In-Person: 268,050
Absentee: 23,690

Turnout Through Same Day in 2020:

Early In-Person: 266,403


So the number of early in-person votes is only up by around 1650 votes. It looks higher because the combined total of early in-person votes is being compared to the 2020 early in person votes, with no information about the number of absentee ballots cast in the early days of the 2020 campaign.

[Demsrule86]

21. Well that is where we disagree. I lived in Georgia and understand voting there...So you think the

increased voters is merely those who voted by mail last time? I don't think so. And even if this was accurate early voting ballots are considered to be in-person absentee ballots and are counted together.

In-Person Absentee Ballot Request Forms
__
Under Georgia law, Early Voting is considered “Absentee In-Person” voting because by casting a ballot before Election Day, they are making themselves absent on Election Day. See OCGA 21-2-385. When a voter shows up to vote for Early Voting aka “Absentee In-Person” voting, they will fill out an “Application for In-Person Absentee Ballot.” This is the same form that has been used for Early Voting in previous elections. For this election, Fulton County is having voters fill out the form manually instead of pre-populating it from the voter registration system, which is leading to increased questions about the title of the form. Filling out an “Application for In-Person Absentee Ballot” when a voter goes to early vote is the normal process. It results in that voter being granted access to go vote early; it does not result in that voter receiving an absentee by mail ballot.

https://sos.ga.gov/news/georgians-embrace-early-voting-heres-what-you-need-know

[onenote]

24. The numbers from the GA Sec of State's office suggest that in-person voting has not increased much

Turnout Numbers Through 10/18/2022

Total Turnout: 291,740
Early In-Person: 268,050
Absentee: 23,690

Turnout Through Same Day in 2020:

Early In-Person: 266,403

In other words, leaving absentee mailed-in ballots out of the calculation, only around 1650 more in-person votes have been cast.

For some reason, the published information doesn't disclose how many mailed-in absentee ballots were cast in the first days of voting in 2020, but it wouldn't surprise me if it was at least as many, and possibly more, than the number of mailed-in votes cast this year.

This article from the spring supports the idea that, compared to 2020, the number of mailed-in absentee ballots is dropping significantly.
https://www.wrdw.com/2022/05/16/tide-shifts-away-voting-by-mail-georgia-elsewhere/

[OilemFirchen]

28. 2020 was a Presidential election.

For a realistic gauge, compare the numbers to 2018 (pre-COVID, BTW):

October 19th, 2022:

Turnout Through Same Day in 2018:

Early In-Person: 147,289

https://sos.ga.gov/news/georgia-voters-set-new-midterm-turnout-record-day-one-voting-nears-presidential-level

(NewsNation) — Despite fears that new voting restrictions in Georgia would suppress turnout, particularly in communities of color, the number of ballots cast in the first two days of early voting has outpaced what it was in the last midterm and presidential elections.

According to statistics from the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office, 291,740 people had voted as of Tuesday, exceeding the total of 216,018 during the same period in 2018. According to the nonpartisan website georgiavotes.com, more than 100,000 Black voters have cast ballots, roughly 1.5 times more than the 73,000 who voted during the first two days of early voting in 2018.

https://www.newsnationnow.com/danabramslive/voter-turnout-in-georgia-outpacing-2018-despite-election-law/

[onenote]

31. The OP talked about this year surpassing 2020. So does the report you linked.

And I have no doubt that early in-person voting this year will surpass 2020. But I also fully expect the number of mailed-in absentee votes to drop significantly such that comparisons to 2020 give a false impression of what turnout may be this year.

[OilemFirchen]

38. The comparison to 2020 is interesting, but irrelevant.

Obviously, if turnout exceeds the 2020 election, that will be historical. But the useful comparison is to 2018 - a midterm that was dominated by Democrats in the HoR.

[Spazito]

33. You're comparing this year's mid-term to the 2020 Presidential election...

whereas it should be mid-term to mid-term.

[onenote]

34. The OP compared this year's mid term to 2020.

Quoting the OP:"After two days, Georgia Early Voting is now surpassing 2020! Not 2018, but 2020!"

[Spazito]

36. I would have thought rather than compounding the error...

by citing the 2020 vs 2022 numbers you would have posted the correct comparison. Disappointing that you chose not to do that.

[onenote]

39. Disappointing that you didn't point out the weakness of comparing 2022 to 2020 until after I did.

[Spazito]

40. I didn't use the wrong numbers in my post...

I don't think you can say the same about yours.

[onenote]

47. You didn't use any numbers in your post.

[Spazito]

56. I certainly didn't...

I was merely pointing out you used the wrong comparison and thought you would correct your post to reflect the mid-term to mid-term numbers. Obviously that hasn't happened yet.

[Demsrule86]

48. The point was that presidential elections

generally have higher turnout so this was significant.

[ashredux]

25. Most everybody today has a cell phone. Most do not answer calls of numbers I have no idea who it is

Most everybody today has a cell phone. Most do not answer calls of numbers I have no idea who it is

Traditional polling is not getting the real gauge of the voters

[Demsrule86]

42. I don't answer either.

[Warpy]

26. The models? Lazy journalism!

Lazy journalists tell us that midterms always favor the fundgelical Republicans, always, then they roll over and go back to sleep.

They have no idea how deeply pissed off women are because they've never bothered to ask us. Even antiabortion women realize that a fundamental right was taken away from them and their daughters.

[PortTack]

32. +1000

[Demsrule86]

49. I have three daughters and two granddaughters.

I almost died in Georgia at the hands of a right to life ass hat doctor and I don’t want any woman to go through what I went through.

[The Jungle 1]

27. I have been having a lot of fun with my republican friends

They still complain that the last election was stolen. I don't bother arguing with them.
I tell them that what is cool is they still don't know how we stole the election.
So we are going to do it again.
I don't think some of the names they call me are very nice.

[Demsrule86]

44. Haha...I am going to try that.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

55. I tell them if it was so obviously stolen and republicans can't prove in court a single case, then

… republicans are too stupid to be anywhere near the levers of power. I’m glad we stole it!

[relayerbob]

29. Pay no attnetion to polls and pundits and VOTE!!

And do what you can to help GOTV

[Demsrule86]

50. That is what we need to do.

[Initech]

30. Yes! It's time to kick Herschel Walker to the curb!

[Demsrule86]

51. Hershel Walker is a brain damaged

psychopath in my opinion.

[bucolic_frolic]

35. What's all the hubbub?

This is the year Republicans discover early voting, and mail-in voting. Because lo and behold it's convenient. The numbers will return to somewhere between 2018 turnout and 2020 turnout. Democrat will do fine.

[Demsrule86]

52. The idea that the media is enabling

the GOP with really fake polls is what is the matter IMHO.

[aggiesal]

37. No doubt (R)'s will say that illegals are vorting in large numbers. n/t

[Demsrule86]

53. Yup, they will cry that the election was stolen.

Any election they don’t win is automatically ‘stolen’.

[SunSeeker]

63. That's because they don't want to admit their ideas are unpopular. nt

[dchill]

45. The media are stirring the pot any way they can...

... because it's good for business. If the Republicans lose a lot of races, all those deniers will double down and get double the coverage. It's going to be a media-generated shit show no matter how it goes. They've got their bases covered no matter what happens.

Seems a little worse than disloyal to me.

[Demsrule86]

54. I agree completely.

[Sky Jewels]

66. Not only that, they've been intentionally and consistently pushing the narrative that Dems

will inevitably get shellacked big-time because the economy is the only REAL issue (i.e., not a piddling "women's" issue) and OF COURSE everyone trusts Republicans on that more because, um, reasons; people don't really care that much about Roe/Dobbs and abortion is "fading" in people's minds (even though more bans are going through and this will never, ever go away as a concern for women); and, the party in the White House ALWAYS loses seats in the midterms and the Dems will get crushed even worse than normal because EVERYBODY hates Joe Biden, unlike the orange guy who tried to overthrow democracy, who is still beloved by REAL Americans, i.e., old rightwing white guys in rural diners.

Not a joke, this propaganda onslaught has been happening non-stop for two years straight. I heard several pundits opine about how Dems would DEFINITELY lose the House in 2022 just a day or two after election 2020.

[Demsrule86]

78. I hate that because it could be a self-fufulling prophecy.

[Snackshack]

58. After 2016

When it came out the gop was manipulating polls to make DT seem more popular then he was I no longer have any faith in polls.

HRC was at 90+% to win and we know how that turned out that or the polls were right and DT manipulated the vote to steal the election (which several prominent people have said a forensic investigation of 2016 would show DT lost.

[live love laugh]

59. Yup. Thanks for posting this.

[Demsrule86]

79. We need some hopeful news...I am sick of the doom and gloom...

[burrowowl]

60. Kick!

[Demsrule86]

80. Thank you.

[sarcasmo]

61. Polls are not factoring in the high number of new voters. Roe Rage is real.

[Sky Jewels]

64. Roe Rage! I love that!

That is so true. I have been in a murderous rage since May, and my fury hasn't faded one iota. Every morning my first thought (after "Aww, my kitties are so cute and warm and snuggly" ) is "FUCK!!! The Supreme Court decimated Roe and I want revenge!"

[Wednesdays]

76. Indeed, even just a 5% increase in Democratic votes

changes a Republican win into a landslide victory for our side!

[Demsrule86]

81. Damned right...Roe Roe Roe your your vote.

[StormKing]

67. Someone is wrong period...

... let's just hope it's the people calling for a Republican majority in the house.

[pstokely]

72. pretty high early turnout, since gas is so expensive and inflation is so high

[Sky Jewels]

83. And let's not forget the most pressing issue of our time...

Trans kids playing on the wrong sports teams.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

82. K & R for Demsrule86!

Always fighting the good fight

[Wednesdays]

84. Yup. K&R.

The doom-and-gloomers are out in force today, aren't they?