I'd love to hear some midterm (honest) predictions.

[Funtatlaguy]

So thinking with your head and not your heart, please fill in the blanks to the following 2 important questions.
The Dems will take _____ out of 435 House Seats.
The Dems will end up with ____ members that will caucus with them in the Senate.

My predictions:
215
52

Which means the GOP will have 220 members in the House caucus and will be in the majority and 48 in the Senate and remain in the minority.

Would love to hear your thoughts.

[Lovie777]

1. I'll bite . . .

I'm for the underdog 2022 midterms, that said, Dems keep both houses.

[Funtatlaguy]

2. Would you mind giving me some numbers. I'm going to tally them. Thanks.

[SallyHemmings]

3. Thoughts from the Philly 'burbs

We will keep the Senate 51 to 49.

218

And McCarthy will not hold the Speakers gavel. Tfg will support mtg and some dark horse will take the reigns.


The youth are active and engaged.

Hope springs eternal.

[Funtatlaguy]

4. Thank you, Sally.

[Sympthsical]

5. I think I fall close to you

215-220 Republican House.

50 or 51 Dem Senate.

But I would not lay any money on this thought, and it may change depending what polls look like over the next three weeks.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

6. I thought 51 Senate also

But I have no idea on the House. I'm never sure about polls. It depends on the methodology, and unfortunately they're mostly used for propaganda purposes (on all sides) rather than for real knowledge, IMO.

[Sympthsical]

7. I've put most of the weight on priority trends

What issues and how strongly are they topping polls.

Out of six polls over the past week, they all more or less looked the same. Inflation a big number one. Reproductive rights keeps falling somewhere around 6th on average. So it's hard to say what Dobbs will or won't do.

The one number I dislike is the national preference one for control of Congress. You have to take into consideration gerrymandering, district population density, etc. So you can't look at that number and really say with certainty how the House will fall. You'd have to dig into all the different districts and things.

Which, no.

So, it's more just more a sense/intuition thing based on how it feels things are trending.

[Funtatlaguy]

8. A lot of reticence so far to give a number on the House. Come on...

it’s just a guess.
You’re not laying any money on it. At least not with me…lol.

[Emile]

9. If Trump is arrested today, we'll win the house and senate.

[Polybius]

11. Maybe the opposite

It could motivate them to vote. But who knows, maybe you're right.

[Emile]

14. Republicans are running on democrats are weak on crime!

Just sayn. .

[Polybius]

10. Here's mine

The Dems will take 190 out of 435 House Seats.

The Dems will end up with 49 members that will caucus with them in the Senate.

[Celerity]

12. The 2024 Senate map for us is nightmarish, we'll have as many as 14 possibly at risk seats (some of

Last edited Fri Oct 21, 2022, 12:18 PM - Edit history (1)

those take unlikely but not impoosible scenarios to get to) YET the scum Rethugs have to only defend 10 seats TOTAL, all in Red states, 9 of the ten in impossible to flip deep Red states. Only Scott in FL is in any sort of remote danger, and I do not see him losing in a POTUS elelection year with either Trump or native son DeathSentence turbocharging the Floriduh MAGAt vote.

So, that all said, IF we end with only 49 or 48 (or worse, 46 would be the lowest possible in my book, to get there the Rethugs sweep their holds and flip NV, GA, NH, and AZ) do you see either Manchin or Sinema (or both) flipping sides?

If they are in the minority for Jan 3, 2023 to Jan 3, 2025, they'll likely be in the minority for another 2 to four years minimum post 2024, if they stay Dems.

Sinema is toast as a Dem in 2024 anyway (Gallego will crush here in the primaries), and if Justice decides to run for the Senate in 2024, so too, likely, is Manchin. Manchin will have a hard time beating any Rethug in 2024, tbh.

[Polybius]

13. Wow, I had no idea that 2024 was so bad for us

If Republicans win, I just don't see either of them switching sides. Manchin and Sinema vote with Democrats far more than Republicans, and Sinema especially is quite liberal on social issues.

So if Republicans take the Senate, Biden will never have a Democratic Congress again in his Presidency, even if he is re-elected? Ugh, depressing.

[Funtatlaguy]

15. Whoa, that's a wipeout in the House. 245 to 190. Hope you are wrong.

But thanx for your guess.

[Polybius]

16. Not a total wipeout, but a lost of about 30 seats

Last edited Sat Oct 22, 2022, 04:53 PM - Edit history (1)

We lost 60+ in 2010.