Cook Political: The Midterms May Come Down to the Last Gust of Political Wind

[brooklynite]

Cook Political Report

One thing on which strategists in both parties agree is that next month’s elections will feature a very high turnout level, a continuation of the last two cycles: 2018 featured the largest midterm turnout in 104 years, 2020 the biggest presidential turnout in 120 years. In recent elections it’s become a cliché for partisans to talk about the importance of mobilizing their base, yet in neither of the past two elections have they had much to worry about. This midterm doesn’t figure to end the high-turnout trend.

A hallmark of midterm elections is that those in or leaning toward the party of a sitting president are lethargic, complacent, or at least a little disappointed, and less likely to vote in the general election. True to form, that is the situation Democrats had going into this past summer. Republicans were just more motivated. That gap closed during the second half of the summer and into September. Indeed, the Fox News poll released this week shows Democrats now just as motivated as Republicans.

The extreme partisan polarization in recent years has yielded fewer “true independents,” ones who do not identify with or even lean toward either party, and fewer people voting split tickets. Indeed, few Democrats will now even consider voting for a Republican for anything, nor Republicans cast a ballot for a Democrat. With the party lines so rigorously followed, we now have higher floors and lower ceilings, meaning that in most competitive states and districts, the margins are rarely more than low- to mid-single digits and the trailing candidate usually remains within striking distance of the leader, hoping that circumstances or a key event will enable them to close the gap and surge or just edge ahead.

But just because there are fewer true independents or undecided voters in key races doesn’t mean they are any less important. Indeed, with both parties’ bases so thoroughly motivated, any meaningful growth in support has to come from those non-aligned voters in the middle.

[kentuck]

1. Democrats may want to study the race in Utah for future reference?

If Lee is defeated, it might show a way for Democrats to become more involved in "red" states and those they have chosen not to compete?

[brooklynite]

3. The left would never be happy with that strategy....

...especially since, if it worked, it would push the Democratic majority to the center.

[kentuck]

4. Then, they may die happy.

Why aren't Democrats in a better position today? Considering the crimes and the lack of an agenda by the Republican Party, shouldn't Democrats be in a much stronger position than they are at present? When you are in a hole, it's time to stop digging.

[Demsrule86]

8. I don't like Mike Lee but the winner will still caucus with the GOP so what does it matter?

[Polybius]

12. Evan McMullin just said a few days ago that he won't caucus with either Party

I guess that's a slight improvement.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. I doubt our motivations on the margin

When we're in power our constituency becomes complacent. Everything already feels good. Why bother to vote?

Anger drives voters to the polls. We're only angry at SCOTUS and they're never on the ballot.

[llmart]

5. I haven't seen much mention of the young people.

I know that historically young people only tend to come out to vote in Presidential election years, but I'm surprised I've seen very little projections on the likelihood of them voting in more numbers this election. I would think that with all the mass shootings and even more than that, the student loan forgiveness program, more young people would be inspired to vote for Democrats.

[kentuck]

6. Young voters can be very gullible...

...and they tend to support politicians like Trump.

Unfortunately.

That is just my opinion.

[Ace Rothstein]

7. Your opinion is the opposite of reality.

Young voters are why Trump is no longer President.

[Demsrule86]

9. That is nonsense...young voters do not support Trump...and young female voters support Roe and

are registering in big numbers...I see the powers that be are backing away from their breathless claim based on a flawed ridiculous NY Times poll that the Democrats are going to lose. We are going to win. Roe Roe Roe your vote and those hidebound Democrats who breathlessly insist on following the usual sort of polling which doesn't include women voters and ignores new voters will be shown to be wrong.

[kentuck]

10. I hope you are right...

But when I see the young Trump supporters, they seem to be the most passionate and stupid of the cult.

However, I would agree that it is the young voters that will rescue us if we are to be rescued.

[llmart]

15. I have to disagree.

Having worked at a university and a law school and having the students work for me where I got to know them quite well, my experience tells me that if they are the type that follow politics somewhat, they are usually liberal, especially with regard to the social issues. I just haven't heard much in the mainstream media about the younger voters. Could very well be that the media is too focused on what their corporate masters want them to report and nothing else.

I also wouldn't say they are gullible. If anything, one can be rather naive about life in general when they are young. There's a reason for the meme that with age comes wisdom. When I was young I saw most things through rose-colored glasses, but I wasn't gullible by any means.

[JustAnotherGen]

14. Young Women

They already 'get it'. I want to see those numbers.

[LeftinOH]

11. How I vote will depend on what gas prices are on voting day...

*SARCASM* ...except, there are lots of nitwits who vote like this.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

13. Fire 'em up!

Link to tweet

Roe, Roe, Roe your vote
against theocracy!
Republicans revoke your rights
and kill democracy!

Got post-its?
Stick 'em up for a blue wave: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217078977

[ancianita]

16. Numbers from the same article.

there are 162 seats in the Solid Democratic column, 14 more that are Likely Democrat, and 17 listed as Lean Democrat, for a total of 193 seats where they have an edge. Conversely, 188 seats are in the Solid Republican category, 12 more are Likely Republican, and 11 Lean Republican, totaling 211 seats where they seem to have the upper hand. It is the 31 seats in the Toss Up column where most of the action is.

To hold onto the barest majority possible, 218 seats, Democrats have to win 25 (81 percent) out of the 31 Toss Ups, while Republicans need to win just seven (23 percent) of the 31. If Democrats win every Toss Up race, they would end up with a net gain of one seat, a total of 223.

The 31 Toss Ups per Cook

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

TOSS UP DEMOCRAT
DISTRICT REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AK-00 Mary Peltola R+8
CA-13 Open D+4
IL-17 Open D+2
IN-01 Frank J. Mrvan D+3
KS-03 Sharice Davids R+1
ME-02 Jared Golden R+6
MI-07 Elissa Slotkin R+2
MN-02 Angie Craig D+1
NH-01 Chris Pappas EVEN
NV-01 Dina Titus D+3
NV-03 Susie Lee D+1
NY-19 Open EVEN
OH-13 Open R+1
OR-05 Open D+2
OR-06 New Seat D+4
PA-07 Susan Wild R+2
PA-08 Matt Cartwright R+4
PA-17 Open EVEN
RI-02 Open D+4
VA-02 Elaine Luria R+2
WA-08 Kim Schrier D+1



TOSS UP REPUBLICAN
DISTRICT REPRESENTATIVE PVI

AZ-01 David Schweikert R+2
CA-22 David Valadao D+5
CA-27 Mike Garcia D+4
CO-08 New Seat EVEN
NC-13 Open R+2
NE-02 Don Bacon EVEN
NM-02 Yvette Herrell D+1
NY-22 Open D+1
OH-01 Steve Chabot D+2
TX-34 Merged Seat D+9