Voters in Battleground States Prefer GOP for Congress

[applegrove]

Voters in Battleground States Prefer GOP for Congress

October 21, 2022 at 4:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2022/10/21/voters-in-battleground-states-prefer-gop-for-congress/

"SNIP........

A University of Pennsylvania poll finds that “51% of voters nationally said they would vote for the Democratic candidate if the election for House were being held today and 49% said they would vote for the Republican candidate.”

“But more concerning for Democrats — with just 18 days to go before the election — is that the Republican advantage grows to 6 points, 53% to 47%, among all likely voters who live in the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”

......SNIP"

[Sugarcoated]

1. Oh, noooo

The sky is falling

[applegrove]

2. Hopefully it pushes many to get out and vote.

[Demsrule86]

3. Another Garbage national poll which completely ignores Roe and uses questionable methods...

Meaningless drivel...

'The Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies/SurveyMonkey national poll was conducted from Sept. 15-Oct. 18, among 108,206 likely voters. To help contextualize how much the results may vary, note that national popular vote polls in the 2020 general election had an average error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points on the margin regardless of their size, sampling or mode of data collection according to the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) evaluation of 202 pre-election polls. The survey has an empirical error estimate, based on past analysis, of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. This number represents the best approximation of total survey error for this poll. All results are weighted so that the survey sample matches the 2016-20 American Community Survey according to age, race, gender and education. The sample was additionally weighted to the 2020 presidential vote. Analyses of subgroups of states were weighted according to population targets in those states.'

[turbinetree]

4. So just for giggles, did this Poll ask if the children / young adults think it will be just fine

and dandy to have mom and dad's Social Security and Medicare on the chomping block and that they will have to invite said parents into there homes.....or do they think that mom and dads retirement money is great enough or do they think it will be just fine to have mom and dad sleeping in car with card board piece of paper standing on a street corner begging for money....lets ask the University of Pennsylvania if they had that Poll question....doesn't appear in this article....

[DarthDem]

5. Why do you always post this kind of crap?

I know you're smart and know better.

[applegrove]

6. Because the polls are everywhere and when democrats get complacent

they can't be bothered to vote. People need to be motivated. Republicans are the ones who like Democrats secure that they got this. Why John Kerry lost to George W. Bush because it was announced in the middle of the election day that exit polls had Kerry well ahead. Harried Democrats stayed home. So please don't slur my motives and I won't slur yours.

[DarthDem]

7. Then post it saying that's what you're doing

Instead of posting it like it's a real poll, which we all know it's not.

[iemanja]

8. What makes a real vs fake poll?

A real one puts Democrats ahead?

[DarthDem]

10. Depends on Context

Like everything else. The answer to your snarky implied question, though, is that not every poll in which a Democrat trails is fake.

However, if you see a poll by (to take only one example - there are many) Trafalgar - which is a Gooper outfit with a demonstrable thumb on the scale that almost always posts more favorable results for Goopers than actually occur or are warranted - it's fake and an attempt to drive the narrative. Any Rasmussen poll can be dismissed for the same reasons. (With one exception - if these polls ever show a Democrat ahead, you know the Democrat is actually winning, and most likely winning big.)

Yesterday's silly "poll" by a Republican flack firm purporting to show the NY governor's race tied is another example.

Common sense can also be of assistance. Democrats won a special election a couple of months ago in New York - in total defiance of the polls, I might add, and in R-friendly territory (for New York). So now the incumbent governor is suddenly tied with a crappy GOP opponent? No.

What these GOP-owned and GOP-managed firms attempt to do is set the narrative. They put a ridiculous result out there, or a result unfavorable to Democrats, and hope that other "mainstream" pollsters will adjust their likely voter screens to show a similar result (and in fact, they often do, in a phenomenon called "herding&quot . They further hope that the message will then reach voters and either inspire Goopers, demoralize Democrats, or both.

All of this means that posting such garbage polls here without context is not helpful.

[iemanja]

11. This isn't a Trafalger poll

It's from Penn. You've provided no basis to back your claim up that it is other than "real." It's clear you are basis your assessment of polls on whether you like the results.
Not only that, the article about the poll comes from a source whose entire purpose is to make Democrats feel good. It's a shit publication, but one frequently sited on DU.

[DarthDem]

13. I said Trafalgar was one example

And only one example.

And if you think the entire purpose of PW (which I assume is what you were referring to) is to make Democrats feel good, your critical thinking is off.

But good day to you nonetheless. Cheer up and go phone bank or canvas!

[applegrove]

9. I don't think Taegan Goddard posts crappily sourced polls.

Last edited Sat Oct 22, 2022, 01:35 AM - Edit history (1)

[DarthDem]

12. He Sure Does

He's not a bad actor and his politics are Dem (albeit a sort of wet noodle, inside-the-beltway, wonky Dem), but his primary job is to drive clicks to his site, which is how he makes money. Excluding presumably paid trolls (and there are more than a few), almost the entire commentariat on PW is liberal Democrats. Posting good news polls for Democrats (or good news of any kind) doesn't drive as many comments, and therefore clicks, as posting Debbie Downer polls. For similar reasons, almost every break of wind generated by Mr. Trump will generate a headline on PW, because Mr. Goddard knows that the commenters will tee off, driving clicks and making him money.

However, many commenters on PW understand all this, and also understand Republican dirty tricks and fake polls, so the comments at PW are worth reading. Read far enough down any PW thread with a stupid, narrative-driving poll - and you usually don't have to read down very far at all - and multiple posters will debunk it with solid support.

[applegrove]

14. Lots of polls have Dems in jeopardy. The Senate race has tightened for sure. TG is national

Last edited Sun Oct 23, 2022, 09:05 PM - Edit history (1)

treasure. He posts his picks because they are so salient. They are right on. He does the truth we know, the Truths we know to be self evident. I doubt $$$ is the object. For years you did not have to pay. He tells us the story of what is going on.

[forthemiddle]

15. Like it or not

People like divided Government. That’s why it’s an extremely rare occurrence when the party in charge doesn’t lose at midterms.