Voters in battleground states prefer Republican House candidates over Democrats by 6%, survey says

[brooklynite]

NBC News

Republicans and Democrats around the nation are statistically tied when it comes to which party voters prefer to control the House of Representatives — but Republicans have a 6-point lead in key battleground states, according to a Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies/SurveyMonkey poll of over 100,000 likely voters.

Nationally, 49% said they would vote for the Democratic candidate if the election for House were being held today and 51% said they would vote for the Republican candidate.

But more concerning for Democrats — with just 18 days to go before the election — is that the Republican advantage grows to 6 points, 53% to 47%, among all likely voters who live in the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

[blm]

1. Dems need to link a GOP led Congress to Putin.

This should be spread in every state with Ukrainian, Polish, Lithuanian communities.

Spread it to their social media pages in states with Senate races as well as every congressional seat. Moldovan, and Latvian communities, too.

JD Vance CANNOT win Ohio if these communities there turn out. Same with Oz in Penn, Johnson in Wisconsin, and Grassley in Iowa.
….
Putin’s last hope to win in Ukraine is a GOP victory in November.

Just when Russia is on the ropes, Republican leaders are already signaling they’ll cut aid to Ukraine if they win control of Congress.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/putins-last-hope-to-win-in-ukraine-is-a-gop-victory-in-november

[brooklynite]

4. Fwiw, the survey is on House races.

[blm]

6. Yes, and I'm adding that impact to Senate races

in those states where those communities have a presence.

[at140]

7. Ukraine deserves aid but,

we are already $31,000,000,000,000 in debt.
We are broke and should not be funding foreign wars.

[blm]

8. You are Ukrainian?

Polish? Lithuanian? Moldovan? They may be voting for different reasons than you.

You may think it’s wise to turn away and let Putin do as he pleases because of the burden of GOPs years of deficit-increasing tax and economic policies, but, I don’t.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

16. Sounds like Lindbergh and America First, just before WWII.

Putin is hoping for a GOP win so he can re-escalate in January.

[at140]

19. Before WWII America was no where as broke as it is today

WIth National debt exceeding GDP by 50%, we are never going to be able to pay any part of the principle. Currently the US Treasury is paying out $365 Billion annually in servicing the interest on debt.
With FED increasing federal funds rate 3/4% every 2 months, that $365 Billion will soon reach $1 Trillion.
You need to understand finances better.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

20. I understand finances just fine, thank you. I also understand alliances.

[at140]

21. Empires met their demise by funding foreign wars while broke.

May be check up on history.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

22. Maybe you could stop presuming that you know me.

The fascist dictators have allied to bring down democracies. Democracies need to defend themselves.

[ProfessorGAC]

26. Time To Step Back A Bit

Your logic is flawed, your historical comparisons are not apt, and the US is not broke.
It's pretty rich that you're lecturing others about their knowledge of finance.

[LArider]

24. Exactly

it's not our problem.

[Docreed2003]

2. What's your motivation in posting this?

Education? Promoting turn out?

You're on the record as saying that nothing posted on DU matters in the real world, while posting pics with party bigwigs at fundraisers.

If it's get out the vote, fantastic. If it's something else, please elaborate.

As someone who doesn't have the luxury of living in a blue state as yourself, nor the connections you have, please share why posting this disheartening shit is prudent. Because you posted it without comment so we're left wondering.

[CatWoman]

3. exactly

[brooklynite]

11. I don't have motivation...

This is a political discussion board. I post topical stories that I find. You can discuss the, or not.

If this is factually true, are you better off if you didn’t ‘t know it?

[Demsrule86]

15. If you say so...

[brooklynite]

18. So you're questioning my honesty?

[Music Man]

25. Good for you.

In the past I have sometimes started discussions about which polls are more credible (whether or not they showed a Democrat leading), and people jumped in my shit.

Everyone here is a Democrat, but it's a political discussion board, and we're all adults. Sobering threads are fine with me, especially if they jolt us awake.

[The Protagonist]

23. Forgive me, as I'm relatively new here

As you can see from my post count. Is this forum only supposed to be for good news? And if the news is discouraging, must a motive be assigned?

I started visiting and signed up because DU is the one place where I believe I can get an honest, accurate, aggregated view of the issues of the day. The fact that Democrats are lagging a bit with less than 3 weeks left till an election certainly seems newsworthy. There are things that can be done! This site is visited by thousands of people! Should we just keep our heads in the sand and hope for the best? Or be aware of whats going on so we can help take action?

[Docreed2003]

27. No, I'm not suggesting we ignore possible pitfalls of the election

We indeed have work to do and our work is cut out for us if you look at historic trends. The best we can do is use articles like this to motivate our work in our local communities.

Also, welcome to DU

[ColinC]

5. Let this be the first year since 2012 the polling error favors Dems substantially

I mean, it's been long enough!

[dpibel]

9. Margarine of error, buttercup?

For the house, the numbers are 51/49 rep/dem all voters and an ASTONISHING 53/47 in battleground states. I mean, wow! A two-point difference in battleground states! Man the torpedoes! Take to the fallout shelters.

Oh.

Oops.

Margin of error on this poll? Plus or minus 4.5%.

We are supposed to freak exactly why?

[Docreed2003]

10. Right? Enquiring minds want to know!

[Genki Hikari]

12. I'd take this with a grain of salt

It's not a survey, and not an actual poll itself. It's an analysis of a variety of polls conducted over waaaaaayyyyy too long a time frame of more than two weeks.

So basically, 538 aggregate analysis with a different name.

Aggregate analysis hasn't worked too well in recent years.

[Greybnk48]

13. Doomsday post. You're right. n/t

[Demsrule86]

14. Trashing...what is the point of this anyway? A survey!

[yardwork]

17. The Democratic messaging needs to change fast.

We need hard hitting ads against the Republicans, telling the voters how these candidates have voted and what the Republicans are planning to do when they take over.

[dsc]

28. This paragraph is non sense and makes me wonder about the entire story

The Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies/SurveyMonkey national poll was conducted from Sept. 15-Oct. 18, among 108,206 likely voters. To help contextualize how much the results may vary, note that national popular vote polls in the 2020 general election had an average error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points on the margin regardless of their size, sampling or mode of data collection according to the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) evaluation of 202 pre-election polls. The survey has an empirical error estimate, based on past analysis, of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. This number represents the best approximation of total survey error for this poll. All results are weighted so that the survey sample matches the 2016-20 American Community Survey according to age, race, gender and education. The sample was additionally weighted to the 2020 presidential vote. Analyses of subgroups of states were weighted according to population targets in those states.

The MOE of polls varies inversely from the square root of the sample size. It is an immutable part of the formula from which the MOE is derived. The MOE also doesn't represent the total survey error of any poll. First, the MOE is designed to capture the true level of support 95% of the time. Second, the MOE only measures the error in regards to the sample not the survey. If the questions are misleading, poorly worded, asked in non random order, or any other error from the conduct of the survey that isn't measured as part of the MOE. Again, given the level of misunderstanding of basic statistics that the author of that paragraph demonstrates I have to wonder just how good this poll can possibly be.