Stop watching election 'news'

[bigtree]

...almost every new org has breathless segments today (these latest drafting off another singular, outlier poll) proclaiming 'Dems in trouble.'

Their collective, laughable premise today (from the 'Amazing Kornacki' and others) is that there's more enthusiasm among republican voters than from Democrats, following a week of them drafting their cynicism off of another outlier poll claiming women had lurched back to republicans.

One thing we know is that early voting is near 2020 levels, and that republicans have been dissuaded from mail-in and other ev, meaning a sizable chunk of the vote is already coming from fired up Democrats.

Recognize that these same media sources had written Dems off in this election a year ago based on their misreading of republican prospects in gerrymandering, which blew up in their faces. We've already outpaced expectations and are on the verge of upsetting their deliberately discouraging projections.

Simon Rosenberg @SimonWDC 1h
Via TargetEarly, % D/R who've voted at this point in:

2020 2022
US 52-37 54-36
GA 48-44 52-40
MI 41-38 53-27
PA 69-25 73-23
VA 54-32 56-29
WI 38-40 42-29

Early vote is more D in US and these states. Some good news from NV too:

Jon Ralston @RalstonReports 9h
NEWS: This is a large batch of mail ballots and Dems are crushing Repubs in Clark County almost 2 to 1. Very similar to what happened in 2020: Early voting has slight edge to GOP and then Dems obliterate the lead.

These are significant numbers after two days.

Simon Rosenberg @SimonWDC 1h
Morning Consult found rising Dem vote intensity. Tracks what we are seeing in the early vote.

"Dems Hold Enthusiasm Edge: For the fifth week in a row, D voters are more likely than Rs to say they are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting in the midterm elections, 63% to 58%. The 5-point gap is the largest Dem advantage Morning Consult has recorded in 2022"
https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

...more:

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[AZSkiffyGeek]

1. Good news, but did you need to include Moz?

Asshole is a fascist.

[bigtree]

3. better?

[AZSkiffyGeek]

6. Lol thanks

I love the Smiths, but Moz just keeps getting worse and worse. Thankfully Johnny Marr is out playing those songs nowadays...

It's nice to see good news from Nevada as well - the posts over the week were worrisome about lower turnout - but Ralston did say to check back Monday for a better picture.

[bigtree]

10. wouldn't you just know it?

...I had a thought, which just as quickly left me, to check his political creds.

Should have known, as his retort, as apt as it may be mostimes, really isn't universally applicable.

[Iwasthere]

2. We know better in DU

But what about the voters outside of DU. Your message needs to reach Them

[bigtree]

7. those voters showing up early in near record numbers have already gotten the message

...and I believe there will be many more enlightened folks standing up to be heard in the coming weeks.

[Hortensis]

4. Agree. Even if it weren't bad for my health, damned if I'll serve

my head up for hostile tinkering. Waste of their time too -- malign elements have been trying to discourage me into not voting for decades but never succeeded.

[Satch59]

5. Totally agree!!

Just screamed at Kornaki, saying Dems should be worried with a ONE POINT deficit…ONE POINT?? Turned it off and just following Simon Rosenberg/Tom Bonier/Jon Ralston/Michael Moore.

And if I hear one more talking head say women have “calmed down” since Dobbs, I may start seriously drinking until 11/8. We have not calmed down or forgotten…and refuse to be 2nd class citizens…ugh!

[PatSeg]

17. Yeah, I can't listen to it anymore and maintain my sanity

Meanwhile, there is plenty of other news to report on and somehow much of it gets ignored in favor of manufactured election hype.

I'll watch election coverage on election day!

[bdamomma]

8. Good idea

Bigtree, to preserve my mental health, I'm going to stick to watching limited TV maybe just Joy Reid, Lawrence O'Donnell and a lot of Randi Rhodes.

We are going to have blue tsunami. finger crossed

[msfiddlestix]

9. Agree but since I cut the cord years ago, I go to DU... Im telling myself to get off DU until after

the elections, but I must be a glutton for punishment cuz I just can't seem to quit coming here, getting served up M$M polling favor QOP favorables. this is effing terrifying.

[bigtree]

11. angst and stuff drives many folks to post

...so I read the pages on the top for what they are.

Like everywhere you look for info, you have to sift through a lot of nonsense to get to the truth, and not just these days.

[msfiddlestix]

15. ✔️ Ty n/t

[Elessar Zappa]

13. I'm cutting off the media and DU

after the midterms, regardless of who wins. I need a mental health break from politics. I’ll be back in the thick of things after a couple of months.

[msfiddlestix]

16. actually feel like I should make a break from here now. I can no longer discern what's click bait

fear mongering or just the real deal, and the pro lem is there very little distinction with a significant difference.

it's all bad. Feeling like living in a state of fear, panic, lingering angst, worst of all hopelessness. (justice)

Very bad for my mental health and well being. He and his cult followers in and out of office seem to be dominating airwaves and DU and the fact he is still free to build and build and build more support looms heavy in my psyche.

[samnsara]

12. only local seattle news and weather for me from 5-7am then b/w sitcoms

[IcyPeas]

14. polls schmolls. makes my head spin.

[FakeNoose]

18. I think there's a method to their madness

They're trying to inspire Dems to get out and vote because IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD!

They're trying to get the Repukes to stay home and not bother because TV SAYS WE'VE GOT THIS!

I remember the poisonous atmosphere of 2016 when many polls guaranteed us that Hillary was going to win. At least some liberal/Dem voters stayed home that year because ... well ... we all know what happened.

American news media will never admit out loud that they did a terrible job in 2016. But they KNOW it was partially their fault and maybe they want to make up for it now? I don't know. We'll see how this plays out.

[WarGamer]

19. 15 days and we'll find out which pollsters and pundits were lying/full of shit.

[Ford_Prefect]

20. We'll find a lot of them will never admit they were wrong. Just like the last 4 elections.

They cannot get reliable numbers but cannot tell anyone that truth.

The real numbers are in how many D and R voters have voted so far. Any opinionating is bogus at best.

The R's won't speak to most of the legitimate polling outfits. They've been told not to.

[Genki Hikari]

31. Oh, they can get reliable numbers

When they need to and want to.

There isn't a business in America that doesn't make major decisions based on polling; they call it "market research," but it's polling. Don't let them fool you into thinking otherwise.

Car manufacturers have relied not only on sales histories but also on "market research" to determine what cars to make, what colors to make them in, and even which dealership gets how many of X cars in Y colors. Your grocery store uses polling to decide what to keep in the store, and where to put it on the shelves. They tell companies who is buying their product, what the customer looks for from them, and even what design to use even for labels, to get your attention.

They know more about Americans than the NSA--when it serves them to know it.

[Ford_Prefect]

33. Day by day political polling has been voodoo since the cell phone became ubiquitous.

Overall trends can be read but not with the accuracy they once were.

Consumer product preference research isn't conducted in the same kind of time frame. As far as which color and what options are sent to dealers goes, that takes even more time to originate, and it surprising how often and to what degree that is pushed rather than a reaction to consumer tastes.

The firms who specialize in this "research" have much past work and analysis to draw on, it is true.

However they adapt poorly when the game is rigged to the degree it has been in Ohio, or Kentucky, or Michigan, or North Carolina, and more recently in Georgia or Arizona.

One other issue which is rarely discussed openly is that the customers shape the polling. The client who commissions the poll and typically distributes the results can have much to do with the outcome and the audience polled. We've seen that in some of the more egregiously biased polling.

The polls which have been most accurate are exit polls. Since the advent of GOP anti-polling propaganda even that has been less effective.

[Wednesdays]

35. Car companies can get it wrong, too...

note how many car models stopped production the last 15 years: Mercury, Oldsmobile, Saturn, etc., etc.

Their "market research" didn't save them.

[ffr]

21. Info to backup the Nevada Data...FOR MIDTERMS.

Link to tweet

[Roc2020]

22. I don't believe any polls

simply go and vote

[MontanaMama]

23. If the MSM really wanted to report what's real...

and, spoiler, they don’t….then Andrea Mitchell wouldn’t have broken away from President Biden giving hell of a speech this morning to Democrats nor would they have gone to AG Garland’s presser late only to break away when DAG Monaco took the podium only to bring in Steve Kornwacky and his corduroy pants telling us how voters have moved past their concerns about abortion. Don’t watch! Their coverage is worthless.

[Cozmo]

24. Ignore the polls. You'll only ask for heartache if you allow these triggers to make you suffer

[Traildogbob]

25. But beware

Those Georgia numbers are “before” the SOS gets perfect phone calls from trump and Graham.

[ancianita]

26. Absolutely. Post November 8 will show the truth.

[bucolic_frolic]

27. That is a hard stat to understand

73% of PA Democrats have already voted?

[Cheezoholic]

28. They're acting like Vegas odds makers

like odds makers when bettors/voters begin to favor one side they will make the opposite side more favorable via better odds/touting the repuke comeback real or imagined. Odds makers make the most money on a pure 50/50 split of the bets. MSM turns this into ratings which they make the most money on 50/50 split. Both make less money if there's a 10 point spread all the way to the day of the game.

[Marthe48]

29. Expecting the worst, hoping for the best

I am aware of the opinions, but working for the result I want. M$M might not be reporting on things, but doesn't mean the things aren't there. I think the right wing doesn't know what the left wing is doing. Whistling past the graveyard also comes to mind. And not changing horses in the middle of the stream. And cheaters never win.

I posted on facebook that voting for Democrats doesn't mean you're voting against God.

[Genki Hikari]

32. We would be better off

If our elections had never become about fictional supernatural characters.

Those of you who believe in that sort of thing needed to be a whole lot louder about keeping your big buddies in your worship centers when it started becoming a problem. Instead, you patted those of us with concerns about it on the head and told us we were worried for nothing, back in the 70s and 80s.

And now...here we are.

[bigtree]

30. Texas

Last edited Mon Oct 24, 2022, 10:42 PM - Edit history (1)

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[hunter]

34. If television news and opinion doesn't rot your brain, the commercials certainly will.

I was visiting family in Republican California this weekend and the television I was exposed to was even more repulsive than it usually is. The political "hit" advertising is beyond caricature these days.

My wife and I don't see any traditional television in our daily lives. We watch DVDs and usually subscribe to one or two commercial free streaming services.

We haven't had cable, satellite, or broadcast television for many years.

I simply can't watch it anymore. It's long been intolerable. I won't pay for it, I don't want it in my life.

My wife was never a fan of television news and opinion. I quit shortly after 9-11-2001.

I don't need the television telling me what I should be afraid of, what I should be angry about, or what I should be anxious about.

[Wednesdays]

36. No matter what, GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!

Whether we're ahead or behind, GOTV!



If you're scared, if you think we're behind, then work twice as hard!

[LetMyPeopleVote]

37. Forget the polls, go vote

Link to tweet

[bigtree]

38. don't let anyone suppress your vote

Link to tweet