If Fetterman can win PA, I think the Democrats will maintain control of the Senate.

[kentuck]

In my opinion, they have a very good chance of winning Iowa and NC. Franken is a very good candidate for Iowa. He has charisma and is very likeable. I would not be surprised to see him retire Chuck Grassley, a political mainstay for the last sixty years.

Also, the Democrat from NC, Cheri Beasley, is very likeable and very experienced and she has a very good chance of winning that seat for the Democrats, in my opinion.

Taking into account that the Democrats may lose a couple of races in the mega-MAGA states, the PA and GA races could determine who controls the Senate. The WI and AZ races would almost guarantee a Democratic majority if, by chance, they could win those races, but they will be difficult.

Also, don't bet the farm on Rand Paul in Kentucky.

[brooklynite]

1. "don't bet the farm on Rand Paul in Kentucky"

I see no data pointing to Rand Paul being in trouble.

[gab13by13]

2. Hey Kentuck? What's with the "If"

I am not worried about Fetterman, I saw Fetterman signs where I never saw signs before.

Do not believe polls. The Magats want a close race in Pa. because they are planning to claim fraud in Philadelphia.

[kentuck]

3. There is a lot of chaos and confusion in politics this year.

It is unpredictable.

[PRETZEL]

4. That may be a strategy,

but if Fetterman wins SE PA (Philly and suburbs) by 10 points, I just don't see Oz or his campaign putting out the millions of dollars that would be needed for a recount. That's too large a margin.

[Joe Cool]

5. Butler County (PA) resident here

Not that much stock should be in put in yard signs, but I have never seen so many signs for Democratic candidates (specifically Fetterman for Senate and Josh Shapiro for governor) in Butler County (GOP +27% registration advantage) in my life.
If Fetterman even does a mediocre job at the debate tonight, Oz is toast and the election is over.

[AkFemDem]

6. Even my RW ex in NE PA

Is grudgingly supporting Fetterman. I think he has this one.

I do think Walker’s going to take GA though.

[Amishman]

7. Iowa is completely off the table, though there are other opportunities

Franken is trailing by double digits in the polling average. We have six polls in the past month from reputable pollsters, and the spread is 3 to 14%. With no polls showing closer, and the winds and generic ballot shifting a little bit the Pub's way, there's just no basis for optimism in Iowa.

Nevada is really damn close, we could lose a seat there.

Barring a radical polling miss, AZ seems safe. well polled and remarkably consistent narrow lead on Kelly's part.

My thought is GA and PA are going to turn out better than polling suggests, with our candidates picking up late deciders and the last marginal votes. Oz and Walker are both unlikeable candidates who are extreme hard right on abortion - which will help our turnout and with independents. PA also has Mastriano turning off voters, GA has a phenomenal state level party to help and a blue trend.

FL is unfortunately out of reach based on the information available. I had such high hopes there, but polling data and early voting numbers just aren't promising.

WI is a long shot, it's going to be close but that state seems to be getting redder over time. Polling is slightly lighter than other races, but only one shows a barnes lead.

Ohio and NC are in almost the same state as WI. Longshot, lots of polls showing a 1-5% pub lead, only one poll showing us up at all.

Add it all up, and I see break even as the most likely outcome.

[W_HAMILTON]

8. Huh?

You seem to imply that AZ and WI are "mega-MAGA" states, while talking up the chances of us winning in IA and NC.

Huh? We actually won AZ and WI in 2020, whereas we weren't close in IA and lost NC.

I like the optimism -- lord we could use more of that around this place -- even if the rational is ... questionable.

[gab13by13]

9. Do not believe the polls.

Polls are used for propaganda. The polls will have the Fetterman/Oz race really close before election day and those close polls will be used by Magats for an argument when they declare that there was fraud in Philadelphia. They tell us what they are going to do.