Flashback: Polls Show Newsom Recall Election Survival Too Close for Democrats' Comfort

[BlueCheeseAgain]

From two weeks before the California governor recall:

SAN FRANCISCO (CNN) -- The idea that California voters might recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom seems like a Republican fantasy and nothing more at first glance. After all, Newsom won by 24 points in 2018 and President Joe Biden, a Democrat, took the state by 29 points last fall.

Now though, Democrats are worried that the Republican pipe dream may turn into a real Democratic nightmare on recall Election Day, Sept. 14.

A look at the data reveals there is a very real possibility of Newsom getting recalled, though chances are he won't be.

https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/newsom-recall-election-survival-close-call/

[onenote]

1. What is this supposed to prove?

[ColinC]

4. Ignore polls, just GOTV.

[mcar]

12. Yep

I'm barely even watching news at this point. They want a horse race, so they are creating one.

[a kennedy]

18. Ditto to not watching news, none, at all, except local.

[mcar]

19. No cable so I don't even watch that

It's actually been freeing. Of course, I'm here and on Twitter and other sites. but I don't have to deal with commercials!

[a kennedy]

21. and the commercials are horrendous!!!!

I do tape a whole lot of the shows I watch, so, I can fly through them. Close to cutting the cable…….

[EarlG]

2. Thanks for posting this reminder

Final result of that "too close" recall:

61.9% NO
38.1% YES

Look, I'm not suggesting we put our fingers in our ears and yell "la la la I can't hear the polls" but let's be honest, politics has gotten damn weird over the last few years, polling is all over the place, and nobody knows what's going to happen.

The most important thing -- the ONLY thing -- is GOTV. It seems that both sides are energized -- we just need to bring as many people out to vote as possible.

[onenote]

9. It was not a "too close" recall.

Discounting pollsters with a known Republican bias (like Trafalgar), the polls over the last month prior to the September 21recall vote showed the recall being rejected by margins ranging from 14 to 22 points. The final margin was 23 points.

The CBS/YouGov poll referenced in the article was taken in early August -- more than a month before the vote was taken (and several weeks before the article was published). A second CBS/YouGov poll, taken starting the day after that article was published -- in other words, two weeks before the votes were counted --showed the recall losing by 14 points. So the trend was definitely away from recall as voting day approached.

[EarlG]

20. Yes, understood

I think the purpose of the OP was to point out that even though it was not, and never was, a "too close" recall, that's how some media outlets portrayed it during the run-up to the election.

It seemed to me that the OP was aimed at this new NYT article about the NY-GOV race: "New York’s Governor’s Race Is Suddenly Too Close For Democrats’ Comfort" -- pointing out that while the media may be covering a race as "too close," it might not end up that way.

But yes, point taken, if in CBS's case they changed their tune closer to the election when polls started turning the other way.

[brooklynite]

3. Are you claiming that Democrats will win nationwide by an equally wide margin?

[EarlG]

5. I think they're merely posting a reminder that media-hyped "too close" polls

have not always panned out the way that the media has hyped them.

Probably in regards to this thread:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217285133

Out of curiosity, does that NY Gov poll match up with your current expectations?

[ColinC]

6. I think they will

IF they knock enough doors.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

7. No, not at all.

(To be honest, I'm usually pretty pessimistic, and pretty worried right now.)

I'm just saying that the pundit class can be wrong. This election might be better, worse, or about the same as what various predictions say now.

[mike_c]

8. point taken!

[Mike Nelson]

10. I live...

... in CA. Most people here didn't want to vote... waste of time and money. "Why do we have to do this?" He went to dinner without a mask? So, we're going to pick Larry Elder? Yeah, right...

[onecaliberal]

11. California has record early turnout. Tune out the noise and KEEP VOTING!!

[senseandsensibility]

13. Very good and to me, at least easy to understand post

I knew exactly what you were getting at, but I'm a lifelong Californian and the media coverage leading up to the recall was ridiculous. So one sided and simple-minded. The poster child for clueless beltway journalism and east coast bias. Anyway, I remember that most pundits were also wrong about 2018. They really poo-pooed the chance of blue wave and didn't even want to admit that it happened when it was over.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

14. I also live in CA and I think the polls reflected a level of frustration

with the whole situation. Anti-vaxx/anti-mask forces were all over supporting the recall, but many liberal Democrats were also angered over the perceptions of hypocrisy on the part of Newsom.

The French Laundry dinner did not play well. Nor did reports that Newsom's kids were attending a tony private school in-person (while public schools were closed).

So there was a period of "venting" on all sides.

Then things started improving and reality set in with the Democratic majority in our state who are aware that recalls can sweep Republicans into power. We remember Gray Davis.

So cooler heads prevailed.

I would not discount those bad poll numbers too much. They reflected a snapshot in time AFAIC.

[Sympthsical]

17. This is how I remember it, too

People really pissed with Newsom over Covid things.

But not so pissed that Elder was ever a realistic option.

[The_Casual_Observer]

15. The chatter about him being recalled and the constitutional crisis

That was going to happen was endless. Larry Elder was a going to win! JFC

[Sympthsical]

16. This was before Elder was the known opponent

Once it was Elder vs Newsom, it was over. Because he, you know, started talking.

It's not a comparable situation.

No one knows how November 8th will go. The polls are close in places. People need to stop taking them personally and receiving each one with either damp elation or piercing agony while railing against the sky and whittling stakes for heretics.

I dunno how anyone manages the mood swings. It sounds exhausting.

I, my partner, and our friends and family have voted. It's going to be a chill two weeks.

Fortunately I have a major exam on the 8th, so I'll be too preoccupied to join in the anxiety parade. Pharmacies will be wheeling a run on Xanax at this rate.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

22. Yeah. The reality that Larry Elder would be the alternative sobered people up.

And the Covid situation looked like it was improving.

The "mood" shifted. I think the polls were fairly accurate in capturing the shifts, myself.

Much more so that being evidence of how wrong polling is, as far as I see it.

[Sympthsical]

23. It is much easier to be generally pissed off

However, if it's, "Are you pissed off enough to want Larry Elder?"

Well, that is a much different poll question, lol.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

24. Exactly.

[PortTack]

25. The Newsom recall poll...right up there with the KS abortion initiative

And who’d have ever thought palin would lose AK?

The polls? Some still swear by them… I just swear at them!

[Xoan]

26. ooga booga