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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums218 House Seats Now Lean Republican
218 House Seats Now Lean Republican
October 26, 2022 at 7:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments
https://politicalwire.com/2022/10/26/218-house-seats-now-lean-republican/
"SNIP........
Larry Sabatos Crystal Ball: We now rate 218 House seats the magic number for winning a majority as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings.
A large number of races remain close and competitive. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up breaking disproportionately to the Republicans.
We suspect the Republicans will do better than just a split in the Toss-ups, so our updated forecast is a GOP gain in the high teens or low 20s.
.....SNIP"
Elessar Zappa
(14,084 posts)Do they have any actual evidence of this?
applegrove
(118,832 posts)Elessar Zappa
(14,084 posts)will win the majority of toss up races. Its just speculation as far as I can tell.
pstokely
(10,531 posts)but the playing field might overall be more neutral this year
Demsrule86
(68,703 posts)were not...they wouldn't have this result...so it seems they did it to get the result they wanted. I say we keep the house and win the senate as well with more senators...maybe even Iowa.
DestinyIsles
(263 posts)ColinC
(8,337 posts)Perhaps it is different in the general, but anybody not treating this like an enormously unique election is cray cray imho
madville
(7,412 posts)2006 Democrats won the house easily against GWB.
2010 Republicans won a huge house majority against Obama.
2014 Republicans took the Senate by gaining 9 seats and increased their majority in the House against Obama.
2018 Democrats reclaim the house against Trump.
2022 looks like Republicans regaining the House by 10-20 seats.
But this is a vastly unique midterm as far as what the presidents party had the ability to do, as well as losing a fundamental basic right due to the opposition party.
Indicators suggest this will not go the way of most midterms. Current events confirm this is a unique election regardless of the results and treating it like any other midterm is insane to me.
pstokely
(10,531 posts)but instincts differ than indicators?
ColinC
(8,337 posts)I consider the polling discrepancies in the year the midterms take place to be indicators.
Polls being consistently wrong by 5-16 points, for example. Other indicators like record level spikes in voter registration by women, and some early turnout numbers in key states suggest this will be different.
Nothing will be sure until after the election though and everything depends on -among other things, on doors knocked (which the specials indicated also having a huge uptck in)
Demsrule86
(68,703 posts)No, it doesn't look like the GOP regaining the House. Other more honest polls show a different result.
brooklynite
(94,768 posts)
and historically they break for the challenger in an off year election.
I chose not to post this because folks accuse me of spreading doom and gloom, but the analysis of Sabato and his team is in line with what the team at Cook Political think.
Elessar Zappa
(14,084 posts)I guess well find out in 13 days.
ColinC
(8,337 posts)I think Dobbs motivated a lot of people to take action and knock on doors. This is why the polls may continue to be very wrong and Democrats could win (maybe massively) on election day. Alas, it all depends probably on how many doors are knocked.
pstokely
(10,531 posts)since that was scaled back in 2020 and mostly discouraged
ColinC
(8,337 posts)Which is why polls were so inaccurate.
yankee87
(2,181 posts)I cant believe the polls because they dont take into effect the Roe vote.
pstokely
(10,531 posts)they'd vote a for anti-choice repuke while voting for a constitutional amendment protection reproductive freeom
Nevilledog
(51,212 posts)Demsrule86
(68,703 posts)PortTack
(32,803 posts)Fla Dem
(23,771 posts)I just can't believe sane people will vote for anyone who is running as a "Stop the Steal" Trump Magot.
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,468 posts)Kid Berwyn
(14,987 posts)Thats the power of messaging.
Xoan
(25,324 posts)TheBlackAdder
(28,226 posts)brooklynite
(94,768 posts)JustAnotherGen
(31,931 posts)Just GOTV. Make call, knock on a door, send a text, make sure your shut in /disabled / elderly neighbors know what is at stake - and help them vote.