Most Candidates Who Think 2020 Was Rigged Are Probably Going To Win In November

[brooklynite]

FiveThirtyEight

In May, Anna Paulina Luna donned a red-carpet-worthy ball gown to a screening of “2000 Mules,” a debunked documentary that falsely claims to show evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election. In June, she made her stance on the 2020 election clear in an interview with MSNBC: “I believe that President Trump won that election, and I do believe that voter fraud occurred.” And in November, she will very likely be elected to Congress.

Luna is the Republican candidate for Florida’s 13th District, on the Gulf Coast around St. Petersburg. During redistricting last year, Republicans redrew this previously competitive district to be much redder, and as a result, Luna has a 97-in-100 shot at beating her Democrat opponent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast, as of Monday at 12 p.m. Eastern. (All numbers in this story are as of that same time and date.)

Luna is one of well over a hundred of candidates running this fall who have denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election1 and have a strong chance of winning their race. Of the 185 Republican candidates running for House, Senate and governor’s seats who have denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election, 124 — or 67 percent — are in races our forecast currently pins at “Solid R,” meaning they have a 95-in-100 or better chance of winning. Overall, a bigger share of election deniers are running in Solid R races than Republican candidates in general: Of the 496 Republican candidates running for House, Senate and governor, 225 — or 45 percent — are in Solid R races.2

Election-denying candidates running to become House representatives are faring better than those running to be governor or Senator. There are 170 election deniers running for House seats, and 70 percent (119) are running in Solid R races. Among the seven running for governor, only two — Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey and Idaho Gov. Brad Little — are running in Solid R races. And of the eight election deniers running for Senate, just three — Katie Britt in Alabama, Eric Schmitt in Missouri and Markwayne Mullin in Oklahoma’s special election — have better than 95-in-100 odds.

[Zambero]

1. And those ED's (Electile Dysfunctioneers) who don't win will insist that....

you got it!

[ck4829]

2. Are they though? How would they know their "win" was legitimate?

[Mad_Machine76]

7. Obviously

they didn't think that the people they liked who DID win cheated. They will declare that the election was rigged and challenge their opponents if they lose, however.

[Demsrule86]

3. I don't think they will win but please proceed with the doom and gloom predictions.

[onenote]

5. And we should put our heads in the sand?

You think that districts that are rated "Solid R" are going to flip? How often does that happen?

[GreenWave]

6. just pretend that all is grand

and hope that everything turns out ok?

Sorry somebody triggered the Steppenwolf today...

[bearsfootball516]

8. It's because most of them are running in deep red districts.

Where there's no real chance for the GOP candidate to lose.

[bullimiami]

4. Ill say probably almost none of them actually think it was rigged. Its a lying game.

Any that do should be in the booby hatch.