Who Are The People Who Don't Respond To Polls?

[brooklynite]

FiveThirtyEight

“Can we trust election polls?” is a question that has reached a fever pitch in political junkie circles dating back to the 2016 election. One popular theory about why election polls missed in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump-friendly voters refused to respond to surveys, making Trump’s support among the population appear lower than it actually was. People give many anecdotal reasons for why this happened, but the big takeaway from this theory is that election surveys are undercounting Republicans and Trump voters.

Of course, many proponents of this theory lack data when making this assertion. The FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll, conducted using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, can shed some light on whether this is happening in 2022. Back in April, we launched a panel study with a group of about 2,000 Americans whose demographic makeup was representative of the U.S. The goal of the project was to see how their fears and beliefs changed in the six months leading up to the midterm elections. However, we’ve found this project has additional, unintended value. Following that initial survey, there was a large drop-off in participation in the second wave and a smaller drop-off between the second and third wave, after which participation largely plateaued. In total, there was a 23 percent decline in the number of participants between the first wave and the sixth and most recent wave (the results of this wave are forthcoming).1 This allows us, in a limited way, to examine something called “nonresponse bias” — that is, who is not answering surveys — and how it impacts polling data.

Our data indicates that some respondents who lean toward the Republican Party are less likely to take part in follow-up surveys. But we didn’t find ourselves in a situation where all Republicans were not answering, and we were able to find a few clues as to who exactly these Republican non-respondents could be.

The charts below show the share of various types of respondents from our initial survey who then took part in subsequent waves.2 By looking at each individual wave, we can get a sense of response rates for the different demographic groups we’ve surveyed:

[lindysalsagal]

1. Young voters. And they're showing up this time.

[Polybius]

5. So far, 18-25 year olds are 3.4% of all who have already voted

https://rpubs.com/ElectProject/early_vote_2022

[unc70]

6. How sure are we about young voters

THIS TIME. This is the usual refrain and often a prelude to disappointing results. The voter turnout demographics so far look like previous cycles.

[bearsfootball516]

9. As much as I would love this, there's no real data that points to it.

If anything, early voting data shows turnout among young voters is about the same.

If, after losing Roe AND Biden's student debt reform, young voters still aren't willing to come out...I'm pretty confident that basically nothing will. Young voters for the most part just don't vote, no matter the circumstances.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

12. Unfortunately, anybody depending on young voters is in trouble.

Election after election, you hear people saying this time, they'll vote. And election after election, they don't.

[SoBlueInFL]

14. I saw zero people younger than middle age at early voting on Monday here in FL. Not one younger.

[LonePirate]

2. I don't answer phone calls from numbers I don't recognize.

Most calls from polling firms are labeled as Spam by my phone and carrier or they have such cryptic names as to be indistinguishable from spam callers. Until this changes, I won't be answering their calls and I suspect I am not alone.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

11. Likewise

[Tree-Hugger]

3. I don't

I don't answer numbers I recognize. I don't respond to political texts. I don't respond to polling texts.

[Demsrule86]

4. Oh...the GOP doesn't take follow-ups...just another bullshit 'poll'. I don't answer the phone

unless I know who it is. I don't have a house phone. The sample size (less than 1000 in most cases) and quality on most polls is lacking and none of them take Roe into account...so this is just another way of you saying Democrats will lose? Kind of demoralizing the vote in the last two weeks aren't you with these multiple posts saying one thing Democrats are going to lose? Thanks for your gloom...and I guess expertise.

[50 Shades Of Blue]

7. If you're not on my iPhone contacts list, your call goes straight to voicemail.

And since my landline rings simultaneously on my iPhone, pollsters are doubly screwed.

[Midnight Writer]

8. Folks like me who get scam and telemarketing calls every day.

I check the caller ID, and if it ain't friend or family or my doctor, it ain't answered.

[Polly Hennessey]

10. I don't.

[iemanja]

13. They did six polls

to determine why some people don't respond to polls. Doesn't that seem strange to anyone?

[kimbutgar]

15. Only once have I ever been polled and that was for the recall of the DA in SF

I’ve been voting for 25+ years and only once have I been polled.