New AZ poll: Lake leads Hobbs 54 to 43 and Kelly leads Masters 45 to 43

[Celerity]

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/2022-arizona-election-poll-lake-leads-governors-race-senate-race-tightens

PHOENIX - A new FOX 10 InsiderAdvantage poll shows the race for Governor - widening a bit. But the race for U.S. Senate is turning into a dead heat. With less than 2 weeks to go before the November election, Republican Kari Lake leads Democrat Katie Hobbs by 11 percentage points. Only about 2% of voters are undecided.

Pollster Matt Towery believes that Hobbs' reluctance to debate Lake may be a reason why the gap has widened in recent weeks. According to InsiderAdvantage, Lake is polling higher among older adults and Hispanics.



Senate race

The U.S. Senate race, between incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters is much closer. Kelly leads Masters by 2 percentage points. Libertarian, Marc Victor, is at 6%, with 6% still undecided.



Methodology

This latest InsiderAdvantage poll was conducted Oct. 24-25 over cell phone, landline and text. It included 550 likely voters, with a margin of error of 4.2%.

[Lovie777]

1. Yeah right.....

[Sympthsical]

2. Two minds on this poll

On the one hand, it feels like an outlier, so you want to wait to see if any other polls show similar shifts.

On the other, Kelly is leading this exact same poll with similar numbers we've been seeing over a month. And as we've seen in states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, voters seem willing to split vote between senators and governor. How are Kelly's numbers remaining stable while Hobbs/Lake have done this with the same sample?

Katie Hobbs has had something of a disastrous month. Refusing to debate was a mistake. She's more or less hiding from the media. There was a voting problem when she's SoS. And Lake is very, very aggressive and out there.

Sometimes we don't nominate the right people, and it's beginning to feel like Hobbs might've been that.

But Lake is dangerous. She's out there yelling that she won't certify an election in 2024 if she feels it's stolen (i.e. Republicans don't win). So . . .

Bleh.

[Celerity]

3. Lake terrifies me, especially as a VP candidate

[Sympthsical]

4. Trevor Noah had a whole segment on her the other day

Watching her evolution over ten years is bizarre.

[Celerity]

8. thanks for posting this

[PortTack]

10. FYI: she can refuse to certify the '24 election. If so, AZ will lose the right to have a say in the

Presidential election. The electoral count act gives specific rules regarding this. Each state is given a set amount of time to certify and submit their election results. If AZ refuse to certify the results the 11 electoral votes that AZ allotted is dropped from the 270 total to win. It’s a nothing burger.

It’s typical bluster on her part other and every other magat!

[Sympthsical]

12. For certain. But it's the precedent of the thing

Once the first person breaks the established chain of authority and institutional norms, others will take the opportunity to go at it with a will.

I think if states started getting willy nilly partisan about certification, that would severely corrode the stability of our system.

It's just one of those things you don't even want played with.

[PortTack]

13. I agree

We’ve all seen how these gqp govs claim they won’t certify. Who would be the first and deny their state any say in the presidential election? Who knows!

[Nevilledog]

14. She's not hiding from the media.

Where'd you get that idea?

She's refusing to debate Lake because Lake is a fucking whackjob and it would be a circus. Katie also gave an extensive interview to the main paper, which Lake refused to do. Lake also spends her time almost exclusively talking to RW media.

Funny, people didn't give Ducey a hard time when he refused to debate Bennett because he was an extremist.

Also, several Republicans including Andy Biggs have refused to debate. You've bought into the rw media narrative.

Anc what "voting problem" are you talking about? The lies and the audit were exclusively extremist driven and the results confirmed Biden's win. Katie was and is subjected to dangerous threats, some federally prosecuted.

I'm in AZ.

[Sympthsical]

15. She also refused to debate in the Democratic primary

Is that also because of the right-wing and her crazy opponent . . . uh, Marco Lopez, infamously known far and wide as *checks* an Obama appointee. The villain! Being a solid Democrat like that. Who could possibly want to be in the same room as him?!

People were not happy with her. Here's one liberal Democrat who wasn't so happy:

https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2022/10/12/katie-hobbs-refuses-debate-kari-lake-loses-her-fault/10477719002/

Look, Lake is a total nutter and her being elected is asking for a shit show.

But let's not run disingenuous interference for a candidate who has been making some poor choices. If she loses, it will be entirely her own fault. No one should pretend otherwise.

[Nevilledog]

21. And your response to the Republicans not debating?

People are not happy because they're being told to not be happy. Anybody who's waiting on a circus to decide whether to vote for democracy vs. Fascism is not a serious person. Tell me how you think Hobbs debating would convince MAGAts to vote for Hobbs or sit out the election. Tell me what you think a debate between these two would accomplish.

[Sympthsical]

24. A politician doesn't owe defending their positions to voters?

Part of the problem with some politicians - particularly careerists - is they start believing they are immune to the "lower" functions of the office. They begin to believe they don't really have to answer to anyone. They don't owe people answers or explanations. They're ensconced in their corridors.

It works until it doesn't. Oftentimes, it bites them right in the ass when they get too comfortable. AOC rode into office on it.

Democrats were dying for Kari Lake to win the primary. They wanted the easy, crazy extremist so the general would be a cakewalk - a strategy I find totally baffling after 2016. Were people in that state incapable of learning from that?

No, it's not good when Republicans do it either. Ducey debated his opponent in the general. No one cares about Biggs. But Arizona is a battleground state. What happens there could have implications on certifying the 2024 election. It's the same reason Pennsylvania was under a bigger microscope even before Fetterman's stroke. Senate balance is in play in a tiny handful of races. They get outsized focus.

The problem with partisanship and online insularity is that I don't think people have a good grasp on how voters think. They have a grasp on how they and their friends think and a straw man they've constructed of how the other side thinks. "Anybody who's waiting on a circus to decide whether to vote for democracy vs. Fascism is not a serious person."

Yeah, but unserious people vote. A lot. And it behooves people to be aware of that fact, take it into consideration, and prepare accordingly. You're fine with sloughing them off? Yeah, I remember that attitude in 2016.

So, how'd that go for us?

[Nevilledog]

25. No one cares about Biggs?

Seems like you are playing fast and loose with what YOU think it's important.

Kari Lake is an extremist. She's been very loud with her extremist positions. People who like her positions are going to vote for her. Those who think she's too extreme will not. You are putting way too much weight on a debate which would not accomplish convincing a single person that Lake is too extreme if they already agree with her. Those who are not paying attention would also not pay attention to a debate. I disagree with you over the importance of a debate.

You're also ignoring all the community level outreach Katie is doing, or the support she's getting from Republicans. Perhaps follow her on Twitter where you can see all the places she's speaking.

How about you give me your opinion about all the Republicans in the country who are not debating their opponents, not just in AZ. Do you think it's hurting their campaigns?

We are just not going to agree on what the importance of a debate is, but I don't think it's accurate to accuse Katie of not being available to the media.

[jillan]

28. The bottom line is Hobbs is losing

Qari Lake was a newscaster for many years. She is polished, articulate and adorable & speaks fluent Trump

I hope that the polls are wrong.
If Lake wins it'll help Masters and Finchem and Abe and all the other qrazies

[kentuck]

5. AZ is much like WY, in my opinion.

They are deep under the spell.

[Polybius]

17. I don't know

Wyoming is the Reddest state in the Union though. Trump won there with nearly 70% of the vote.

[Elessar Zappa]

23. Yes.

Despite everything, Arizona’s a purple state. It went for Biden and has two moderate Dem senators.

[Docreed2003]

6. It's interesting they attribute "not debating" to the polling results

Arizona must care more about debates than Tennessee. Here our shady MAGA scum Governor refuses to debate his opponent. His excuse is that he's "focused on being Governor", which is a load of bunk. Yet, Bill Lee has barely gotten criticism here in TN.

[Johonny]

7. I think I care more if Kelly wins anyway

[MacKasey]

9. Inside advantage poll used 550 likely voters

Got info from 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2022/arizona/

550 is not a big enough sample

[dsc]

18. It is big enough to use statistical methods with

but the MOE will be rather large.

[Deminpenn]

22. It is, but LVs are the issue

LVs are a poll of who the pollster thinks will turnout. Maybe their turnout model is right and maybe it isn't.

[PortTack]

11. I can't imagine a debate is at the bottom of this

How long has it been since AZ has had a dem gov?

[jillan]

27. Our last Dem Gov was Janet Napolitano who Obama took

for his cabinet.

Not one since

[PortTack]

29. That's right..and she was a good one!

[Polybius]

16. I'm not the least bit surprised that Lake leads

It's all because of this:

[Emile]

19. I don't trust her.

[kairos12]

20. She is a Lipstick Fascist.

[jillan]

26. Cook Political Report just put Mark Kelly's race as a toss up

[lees1975]

30. It's a Fox poll and an outlier.

The governor's race is a toss up, the senate race leans toward Kelly.