It appears that Republicans have peaked

[grantcart]

There is a lot of frustration with the polls but here is the bottom line no one knows what turnout model to use

Here are some key points over the last 3 days.

1) Analysis shows non partisan polls are showing Dems 2.5 points higher than partisan polls.

2) what is useful is comparison of the same polling company over time because they are using the same assumption on turnout.

3) It appears that Republican numbers have peaked. Ohio Predictive showing Kelly over Masters and Hobbs closing on Lake while Fontes (SS) is pulling away in AZ. Times Seneca showing Dems ahead in AZ GA and PA and closing in Nevada.

4) We are also gaining in Alaska and NM House races.

[Peacetrain]

1. Thank you for the update!!

[BlueIdaho]

2. From your keyboard

To god’s ears…

[jaxexpat]

7. Ditto. Literally what I was about to post.

[liberalla]

11. Me too - No joking!

[jaxexpat]

16. Is psychic plagiarism a literary Halloween thing?

[BlueIdaho]

33. Too Right!

[onetexan]

10. Ditto!!

[ProudMNDemocrat]

3. Could it be that even reasonable Republicans and Independents are SICK....

of MAGA Republican nuttery and want sanity as much as Democracy to thrive? Let's hope so.

[Sucha NastyWoman]

15. No that's not it

There are just more of us than there are of them.

[docgee]

18. This is true!

And all of them vote, every time. They have nothing to increase their chances of winning except voter suppression. If all liberal and centrist minded people actually voted, they would lose a lot of elections.

[Meadowoak]

25. +1000

[ITAL]

37. That's really not true

Trump got ten million more votes in 2020 than 2016, despite losing some people who voted for him four years earlier. Republicans don't all always vote either. More leftists might not vote, but plenty of people who lean right don't either.

[Septua]

40. Sick of MAGA?

A few 'man/woman on the street' interviews confirm it.

The 50/50 polls drive me crazy.

[Joinfortmill]

4. Clinging to hope here.

[yardwork]

5. I hope so. I just voted in NC.

I've never been so nervous before an elections. Seems like everything is riding on this one.

[blm]

19. Voting with mr blm on Friday.

My nerves are on thin ice. NC is such a tough state.

[yardwork]

38. Yes!

[The Blue Flower]

6. When craziness and mendacity are all you've got,

You've peaked.

[Rural_Progressive]

52. They've got a butt load of fear, anger, and resentment

to go with the craziness and mendacity.

[BlueKota]

8. I Am Especially Hoping

that Hochul beats Zeldin. It makes me feel physically ill that we might have a Trump ass kisser as Governor. NY needs to stay Blue.

[honest.abe]

9. I think you are correct... and along with peaking could also mean a drop coming up soon.

The timing might just be perfect.

Fingers crossed!

[mcar]

12. I've read that the Rs released a bunch of their own polls

in the last week or so to skew the polling averages. When the partisan polls are removed, things look much, much better for Dems.

My worry, though, is that the media is helping to set up the Rs inevitable "we were robbed" claims when they lose.

[rubbersole]

13. Count on it.

[Mr.Bill]

21. "We were robbed"

is the fun part. Hasn't worked yet and never will.

[PunkinPi]

50. Correct on all points. Joy Reid had Simon Rosenberg last night to discuss the polls that skew R...

they (right leaning pollsters) are trying to flood the zone to game the averages creating the narrative for "the red wave", of course the media runs with it.

Link to tweet

.@SimonWDC: "In six major battleground states more than half the polls conducted in October have been conducted by Republican firms... basically we can't trust the data on RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight any longer... it's essentially Republican propaganda." #TheReidOut

Additionally, Simon tweeted (first tweet of the thread) this morning...

Link to tweet

Morning everyone! Some thoughts on where we are 7 days before last day of voting. Early vote remains encouraging. At this point in 2018 Rs had 300k national vote lead. Today Ds lead by 2.6m. Ds are above 20 share in GA, IA, MI, NM, NV, NC, OH, PA, TX, WI, almost in AZ, WA. 1/

Of course we all still need to GOTV.

[doc03]

14. If we keep the House and Senate wouldn't Republicans

be jumping off the Trump train in droves? I can't believe they would still support him. Joe Scarbourgh claims many Republicans can't stand Trump in private but are to cowardly to do anything.

[liberalla]

22. I would think so! They would feel safer to dump trump... it'd give them permission

to abandon the orange menace... Unless he has kompromat on them... Like lindsey graham...

[Septua]

41. It's too late to jump off the train to get my attention.

I'll never respect another Republican politician.

[calimary]

51. But there's that other dynamic in play here, as well.

Nobody want to admit they were wrong, much less that they’ve been royally HAD. It’s gonna take an almost Herculean effort for some of ‘em (maybe a lot, or most of them) to find their inner grown-up and shake this off.

If we didn’t have such a powerful and as-yet unchecked push-back from Pox Noise and other Dark Side media trying to salvage their own pride and misplaced sense of “righteousness” then a graceful reconciliation might be possible.

But it takes a LOT to get there, including an acceptance of a very harsh and deeply unwanted reality that many of them will resist to the bitter end. It’s a pride thing. Some of our misguided brothers and sisters just may not be willing to see the light. Conversion away from previous staunchly-held and passionately-embraced is often not easy or voluntary.

[PortTack]

17. Thx for posting..great news!!

[liberalla]

20. Thank you for posting this! Fontes "pulling away" sounds spectacular! I've been so

worried about that race and Katie Hobbs too. That Finchem interview last night on 60 Minutes was really something. I think any semi-reasonable person watching that would recognize an extreme drumpf zealot and want to run screaming in the opposite direction. He looked a complete fool.

Thank you again. I appreciate you sharing your insight and info.

[Wednesdays]

23. Great news, but take nothing for granted! GOTV!

GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217304193

[ificandream]

24. VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!

Don't stay away on Election Day! Your vote counts!!

[BumRushDaShow]

26. They don't have a good handle on the "likely voter"

They missed (enough to affect the outcome) in 2016 not realizing a segment of deplorables who never voted, would wake up and vote. They ignored 2018, downplaying the Democratic enthusiasm. Because. 2016. And missed again when it came to estimating the number seats Democrats would flip. And then they missed once more with turnouts in 2020, where all sides had enhanced participation and included more unaffiliated voters choosing sides.

The question now is whether they are assuming that there is a trend of underestimating "hidden" GOP voters while they continue to dismiss Democratic ones, who came out strong both in 2018 and in 2020. In fact here in Philly, a couple bullshitting Philadelpiha Inquirer reporters demanded to know why Philadelphia didn't turn out for Biden (we did). And then they left that mess of an article up and still haven't corrected it 2 years later.

This type of likely voter faux pas is what deep-sixed Gallup back in 2012 when their "poll" that had been used for decades, predicted that Romney would win (he didn't and Gallup ceased doing that poll after writing a mea culpa).

Analysis of that mess-up.

Gallup identifies flaws in 2012 election polls


Martha T. Moore
USA TODAY
Published 2:24 p.m. E.T. June 4, 2013 | Updated 5:02 p.m. ET June 4, 2013



WASHINGTON – Pollsters at Gallup said Tuesday they have identified flawed methods that contributed to their incorrect prediction that Mitt Romney would win the 2012 presidential election, but they are still working to determine how to better identify who is likely to vote.

The survey firm undertook a far-reaching review of its operations after its surveys came up short in the election: Gallup's final pre-election estimate showed Romney with 49% support to Obama's 48%, with a margin of error of +/-2%. Most polls estimated Obama would win the popular vote by 1 percentage point. Obama won the popular vote by 3.85 points.

In pre-election polling, Gallup consistently showed Romney with a 3-percentage point lead over Obama. When Gallup switched to surveying only "likely voters," Romney's edge increased to 4 percentage points.

Gallup, with researchers from the University of Michigan, will experiment with ways to better identify likely voters in surveys during the 2013 governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia. Gallup asks seven questions in its phone surveys to determine whether people are likely to vote – a questionnaire that may rely too much on past voting and on how much "thought" voters have given to the election, Gallup Poll editor in chief Frank Newport said. Though all polling outfits showed an increase of support for Romney among likely voters vs. registered voters, Gallup's bump for Romney was the most extreme. "We really are re-evaluating that from square one," Newport said.

(snip)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/06/04/gallup-poll-election-obama-romney/2388921/

Literally this afternoon, my local CBS news radio station here in Philly had a reporter do a series of "person on the street" questions about "what issues" were important to them and what was "driving them" to vote, and although some gave some responses about "abortion", "economy", "democracy", etc., a couple said that they would "rather not say" for party affiliation and one (a Republican) even said "not on the radio". So I expect that you might have more and more people basically telling a pollster one thing and doing something else when they vote.

https://www.audacy.com/podcast/kyw-newsradio-audio-on-demand-12880/episodes/what-voters-are-most-concerned-about-this-election-f94ca

[soldierant]

44. It's not the "likely" voters they don't have a handle on -

it's the "unlikely" voters - many of them women and young people registering for the first time - that they aren't counting because they have no idea how to pinpoint them, sonce they have no voting record.

And, by the way, my ballot has been mailed in and counted for a week now. So I won't be out on election day. Don't go by that.

[BumRushDaShow]

46. I think we are saying the same thing

but in a different way.

We know, just based on the registration stats and even early voting estimates, that there is an uptick of the young and women in terms of registration, and that should suggest that they would be considered as potential "likely voters". But what they are not taking into consideration is that in order to vote, one does NOT have to register for every friggin' election and there are still many in those demographics who can (and do) vote, having already been registered (and voted) in the past.

So you have many millions who are already registered to vote and who may have last voted in 2020 but not in 2021 (for whatever reason) and they have also NOT been thrown off the voter rolls (in restrictive states, it often requires some low "x" number of missed elections). However these people are dismissed and not considered "likely" to vote because they are NOT "dedicated, vote-every-single-election including every primary and every special election voters".

And even in those cases when they are, those determining this have inherent biases that automatically dismiss certain demographics (youth, some women, minorities) anyway because they don't understand what barriers have been put in their way to keep them from voting (you have many who work shifts and can't vote during the day), and then they use them as bludgeons to attack Democrats for not getting them to turn out because their own methods for accurately capturing their existence, ability, willingness, and travails, have failed.

ETA - I voted by mail here in PA and my ballot was "received timely and recorded" by the state per their email, on Oct. 18, so I am also "done".

[soldierant]

53. No, you don't have to register in every election, certainly

but in most states you do have to vote in at least some of them or you will be removed from the rolls. Yes, that's a practice which can lead to abuse, but it's also not totally useless. It also varies from state to states. So, yean, some of the "new" registrants over 18 may not be completely new. But id they are in that category they also will not have been polled as "likely voters."

[republianmushroom]

27. LIKE IT

[peggysue2]

28. Yes, peaked and . . .

Quickly gone to the rotting stage. LOL!

Makes me furious that so many GOP outlier polls were allowed to enter the mix. It won't change the end result but will give every election denier another step to shout from on any and every Dem victory: but, but we were ahead, the polls said so, yada, yada.

We need to buckle up regardless of what happens because Election Day, night and many days following could quite possibly be the 'Days of Chaos,' circa 2022.

Overall? I have a good feeling where our numbers are headed.

We're doing this thing. Fired Up and Ready to Go!

[Warpy]

29. If by NM, you mean that Herrera is soon to be OUT

something I sincerely hope will happen. That district has been seesawing back and forth for a few terms now. Even though it;s lousy with Texas expats, they deserve better than what they've had.

I did my bit but I don't live in that district. There has been blitz advertising on YouTube by the Democrats around here, hope it makes a difference instead of just pissing people off.

[Elessar Zappa]

34. I assume you mean Herrell?

I’m in her district and currently her Dem opponent Gabe Vasquez is two points ahead according to an Albuquerque Journal poll, although it’s within the margin of error. The good news is that our district now includes some Albuquerque suburbs, which should partially offset Republican “little Texas” (southeastern New Mexico). I feel good about the race.

[Warpy]

36. I sincerely hope so

I doubt my district here in the big city will change colors any time soon. We hated losing Deb Haaland, but Melanie Stansbury has a pretty solid record per Progressive Punch.

(I screw up names all the time, can't see diddly squat)

[lucca18]

30. Thank You Grantcart!

You made my day!

[Cha]

31. Gosh.. I Hope you're Correct, grant!!

GOTV:cem:

TY!!

[electric_blue68]

32. 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞👍

[Warpy]

35. I hope they're not resigned to it yet

I have high hopes of a Donnybrook breaking out at their 2024 convention.

[LiberalFighter]

39. I early voted today. First day available in my area.

Allen County, Indiana.

It probably took about forty minutes before I could sign in to vote. And the line was just as long when I left before noon. It appeared to me that more women than men voted.

There were seven or eight voting machines.
Two election clerks to sign in voters.
One inspector that is head of the group.
At least two election judges that direct voters to open machines and setup up machine based on voter's residence.

There were three other early voting sites that began today and one downtown that had been operating a couple of weeks.

City has population of about 265,000 with county just over 390,000. No early voting sites outside of city.

[Galraedia]

42. Polls don't decide elections, the people that vote do

I don't care what the polls say. The men and women that have died defending this country did it so that you could exercise your right to vote, so DO IT!

[Martin68]

43. Thanks for the good news. I need every encouragement I can get to stay sane.

[secondwind]

45. Oh Lord, let this be so!!!!!!!!!

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

47. I don't know, but I could not be any more desperate for this to be correct.

If Rs take power in Congress, they will sabotage all Dem wins and democracy itself rather quickly.

[CountAllVotes]

48. Beating an 82 year old man (attempted homicide)

Things like this have an effect on polls one would suspect.

Many people that were going to vote for the MAGA cult might be giving it a second thought. As for those that cling to this despicable affiliation there is a message that goes with it. SHAME ON YOU!

In the meantime, if you do not know who to vote for then VOTE THE TICKET !!

Vote Democratic and show these losers what the word WIN means once again!

& recommend!!

[Baggies]

49. Wha...?!

Are people here purposely wanting to climb higher so they can crash harder? Signs are not good for us having a desirable mid-term. We’re not even close. I don’t see how not facing it will help the situation. A lot of people are setting themselves up for a major meltdown.