"... basically we can't trust the data on RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight any longer... "

[Nevilledog]

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The ReidOut
@thereidout
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.@SimonWDC: "In six major battleground states more than half the polls conducted in October have been conducted by Republican firms... basically we can't trust the data on RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight any longer... it's essentially Republican propaganda." #TheReidOut


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6:15 PM · Oct 31, 2022

[iemanja]

1. We'll find out next Tuesday

In recent years, polls have underestimated Republican votes. There are a couple of cases where the opposite is true: the Kansas abortion case and a congressional special election in NY state.

[Wibly]

27. Don't worry, be hopeful

If the polls were showing a blue wave it could have the impact of making people believe it is in the bag, and leave them complacent.
With the polls showing a dead heat or a GOP advantage, people on the social side will be motivated to get out there and make a difference.
So these polls that show a GOP surge could be just the spark Dem voters need.

That said, the polls still show a high degree of undecided voters, non-committal independents, and they are based mostly in previous voting roles. The pollsters are not talking to new sign ups, and there have been a lot of new sign ups.
There is hope, and grounds for it.

[certainot]

72. 2 possible reasons why GOP wants to look ahead - so they can call stolen election and get recounts

and delays in close races, and maybe they know republicans/authoritarians have the mindset that if they think they're winning they want to twist the blade, but if they think they're losing they whine, call fraud, give up, and won't vote cause they don't want to be on a losing team

[SayItLoud]

29. In Flori-duh

The majority of the ads are Repukes and they are really on message and targeted. The Demmings/Crist ads suck, IMO.

Repukes lie strong and hard and top it off with fear. That cuts to the heart of the ignorant, cult and the "oh my god the countries falling apart under Biden, so I better vote for them".

We are..."if you want the right to choose...if this if that...then vote for us" . Don't ask them TELL them.

Rant of day over.

VoteBlue to save your fuckin country. Or you will get what you didn't vote for!

[certainot]

73. florid is a talk radio state with about 30 exLimbaugh stations and prob that many again RW without L

all republican pols and their ads have to do is repeat what those assholes are saying - they're all on the same page and still following the limbaugh playbook.

and Fla Dems let 20 of the ex Limbaugh stations piggyback 5 Fla universities, including UF on 10!

it's actually amazing that republicans are anywhere close in most races considering what's happened in recent years but the list of issues of concern to voters break for republicans with every issues but abortion because there are 1500 radio stations out there yelling crime, inflation, etc all day long - endorsed by hundreds of schools and pro teams...

[Dorian Gray]

80. Polls aren't an exact science

But I also think that bashing them as Republican is sticking our head in the sand.

We need to address areas of weakness. Areas that may cost us voters. And head into this thing strongly.

[LakeArenal]

2. Oh but I've been scolded right here on DU for just that!!

Not trusting polls. Not even the “good ones”.

[iemanja]

4. Duers love polls that show Democrats ahead

and trash those that show Republicans ahead. It has nothing to do with polling methodology or reliability.

[Demsrule86]

8. Republican polls like Trafalgar, Wick, Insider Advantage are slanted and they are cheap and plentifu

right now.

[iemanja]

10. And 538 says Insider Advantage is one of the most unreliable polls

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pollster-scorecard-insideradvantage-be/

The trashing of 538 is about people hating bad news.

Polls of course can be off, as has been the case in recent years. So why get so exercised about them?

[Mr.Mystery]

40. Well, when 538 blew the 2016 election in such a spectacular fashion,

I don't know how anyone can believe it has much credibility anymore.

"Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning, compared with Trump's 20 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast."

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fivethirtyeights-nate-silver-predicts-hillary-clinton-wins-election/story?id=40213871

[iemanja]

42. It simply averages polls. That's it.

538 is not a pollster.
Obviously, polls have been notoriously inaccurate in recent years, mostly in terms of underestimating Republican votes.

[iemanja]

48. Again, 538 is not a pollster

Have you even read the site? They simply use statistical means to average polls. It's the pollsters who blew the election results, largely by underestimating Republican votes. That's happened multiple times in recent years. Now have pollsters overcompensated for that? Possibly. I don't know enough about their methodologies.

[sarisataka]

49. How did they blow it?

79% does not mean that candidate is guaranteed to win.

A 20% chance is 1 in 5. It isn't a huge surprise to win with those odds.

[OnlinePoker]

58. As a poker player, I can confirm this happens. n/t

[AllTooEasy]

61. An 80% chance is 4 in 5. It's a huge surprise to lose with those odds.

Yes, %99.9999 isn't a guarantee either, but let's be real...538 just blew it.

[ITAL]

63. A 1 in 5 chance isn't THAT bad

There are tons of times where a forecast of a 20% chance of rain will get you...rain.

[sarisataka]

71. Not to anyone who was willing

To look at the numbers dispassionately. If they did they would have seen that the election was going to be close. Looking at how the popular vote would likely equate to electoral votes, it was clear that the whole election hung on a few states.

But anyone who tried warning of that was shouted down by those discussing the possibility of a 50 state sweep.

Here are some things from DU on Monday November 7, 2016:

Groper Don the Con is not leading shit

I can't believe the panic at DU

It's all such B.S., probably for t.v. ratings.

Any rise in TrumpleThinSkin's political fortune at this point. . .
is nothing more than a "dead cat bounce"

The media has a vested interest in making sure it's down to the wire. (or at least appears to.)

I have seen near verbatim posts this week about the polls.

[AllTooEasy]

79. Me too!

Thanks for going back and pointing that out!

[flying_wahini]

56. I'm with you.

[Celerity]

64. That 79 per cent chance was in June 2016, long before the election. What did they say

a month out? 2 weeks out? A week out?

[Mr.Mystery]

77. Okay . . . It went down to 71 percent for HRC on the day of

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[TwilightZone]

78. Their final prediction had it 71/28.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

28% is not zero. Because...math.

[Baggies]

22. I don't get it.

It’s insane to behave that way on anything. Instead of being free to actually discuss things, you get members getting shouted down or having their posts removed because it doesn’t fit the prescribed narrative. And then when things don’t go a certain way based upon what has been posted here, there’s a complete meltdown. I’m trying to figure out why it happens, but whatever it is, there’s no reason for it.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

47. You are exactly right!!!! Is the poll bad?, GO immediately to

Rightwingness of pollster, inadequate sample size, just spreading rightwingness , why do you have to be a Debbie downer....?

Poll favorable, go immediately to touting it unconditionally.

As flawed as they are there is no other measurement. Unless it's just a feeling it all will work out.

[hlthe2b]

3. Have RealClearPolitics or 538 responded to this yet?

[Demsrule86]

7. The issue is almost all polls RCP reflect right wing polls so the numbers are off. Also, Roe is

Being ignored.

[iemanja]

11. How is Roe being ignored?

538 posts polling averages. It's up to voters to prioritize Roe, not 538. What would you have them do?

[niyad]

19. Maybe frame the questions to reflect that? I showed that polls taken by

certain groups show that young women are motivated by the loss of Roe, and demands for ERA. Not reflected in most polls.

[iemanja]

44. 538 doesn't do polls

It averages them. They don't frame polling questions.

[bronxiteforever]

23. After 2016 I don't trust any poll. Burned once never again.

The results of Tuesday’s presidential election came as a surprise to nearly everyone who had been following the national and state election polling, which consistently projected Hillary Clinton as defeating Donald Trump. Relying largely on opinion polls, election forecasters put Clinton’s chance of winning at anywhere from 70% to as high as 99%, and pegged her as the heavy favorite to win a number of states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that in the end were taken by Trump.

How could the polls have been so wrong about the state of the election?

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/

[OMGWTF]

33. Traitor Tot only won by 88K votes over three states thanks to Vlad.

[iemanja]

46. Yeah, that's a good point

Polls in recent years have failed to predict actual election counts.

[bronxiteforever]

52. I agree with your point that good or bad news shouldn't matter

All I know is that for me, since 2016, I don’t trust anything but the vote. You are right there was a significant under polling of the TFG and minions. The Kansas and NY special show maybe another trend but I am not confident of anything. I know nothing of how things will turn out and since 2016, election night has been a mixture of unease and dread and hope.
Keeping fingers crossed for 11/8!

[iemanja]

53. Yep, I agree.

Fingers crossed.

[jaxexpat]

54. Because none calculate the electoral college into their predictions.

[progressoid]

25. last time I looked 538 indicates who funds the polls.

[FBaggins]

75. Dave Wasserman (Cook Political) may have - indirectly

Link to tweet

?s=20&t=Qd9DeIBXldy_8eJt069BVQ

“Let’s all focus on the early vote data because the polls are broken” is the analytical equivalent of jumping off a cliff in a wing suit because the stairs to the bottom of the canyon are old and rickety.

Those stairs aren’t always reliable. Sometimes a plank breaks and you fall through and land in the wrong place, as happened in 2020 when both parties’ polls misjudged the political environment. But it’s still preferable to jumping off the cliff.

[hlthe2b]

76. Well, seems to me he is acknowledging it as a real issue...

just implying we reep from it what we can, knowing the unreliability of some of the data/inputs.

[FBaggins]

81. NS calls it BS. "I've never seen so much hopium smoked before"

Starting around the six-minute mark

https://abcnews.go.com/fivethirtyeight/video/republican-polls-affect-model-fivethirtyeight-92562557

He also takes a shot at RCP - "don't lump us in with them"

[Raven123]

5. The problem is the media is obsessed with polls.

When they cite them, discuss them as if they are accurate, and then ask the round table of pundits, how Dems should respond, they present them as credible. Happens every day of every week on every possible issue. People just start to believe every poll they see after a while

[Meadowoak]

59. Polls are not credible anymore. 90% don't answer unknown numbers.

And the 10% that answer, many will lie. Not to mention many of these polls are just push polls, I believe we're past a time where any polls are accurate.

[Raven123]

65. I agree with you. The media just can't figure it out

[Meadowoak]

66. The media couldn't care less, it's all about ratings.

[BlueIdaho]

6. I stopped paying attention to polls years ago.

The whole business is a racket.

[gab13by13]

9. Polls are used for propaganda.

Gallup used to be the top dog and then for the Obama/Romney election it put bad data into its formula to benefit Romney. That's all I needed to see, I believe no polls.

[budkin]

12. POLLS ARE DEAD

AF

[getagrip_already]

13. any longer? we haven't been able to trust them for a decade or more.....

This isn't a new problem. But then again, ost people don't understand what public polling is.

Public polling is the currency of news organizations. It isn't designed to give unbiased data on the opinions of likely voters as they will turn out on election day.

They can't afford to do that. It would be too expensive. So instead, they stick to phone or internet polls. Meaningless given the people they can reach.

But they do direct eyeballs to the media, which IS what they are intended to do, and what pays the bills to generate them.

[sarisataka]

14. They need to fix those polls

Until they correctly shows Dems leading...
Then we'll know they are trustworthy.

[DestinyIsles]

17. I didn't believe the polls in 2020 either

when they had Biden up +12, +14, +17, so no this is not a bias problem

[sarisataka]

20. Perhaps for you

Although your journal paints a different picture

[FakeNoose]

15. We all know how polls are conducted - by supposedly random phone calls

But ... those calls aren't really random, are they? Most of the people who pick up the phone and talk to the pollsters are Repukes. And we all know that Repukes will lie to pollsters because that's how they get their jollies. Or they give their version of the "truth" which is straight from Faux Noise.

How are these pollsters even giving their numbers with a straight face?

We would be fools to listen to any of this. I assure you that I've ignored all of it.

[DestinyIsles]

16. It's mostly junk polls in the averages now

they are being flooded by GOP aligned firms. Not saying polls is completely wrong but take these with a grain of salt. If you a poll named Patriot Polls, who do you think they are giving the advantage to.

[Stuart G]

18. "ROEVEMBER. " THAT IS IT, THAT IS ALL!!!!

[niyad]

21. ROE VEMBER!!!! is certainly one serious, indicative factor.

[onecaliberal]

24. I saw this last night. Just confirmed what I've been saying since Roe was overturned.

They are gaslighting and lying. Just vote and tune them out.

[ancianita]

26. She is correct.

538 argues that its 'generic polling' gives it a predictive edge while disregarding that turnout can always upend polling predictions. I knew when I read its own polling that I was reading 538's corporate hype.

[CaptainTruth]

28. I saw a couple political analysts discussing this on Twitter a couple days ago.

They had both noticed how a bunch of GOP polls were coming out, apparently in an attempt to change the averages.

Not sure what the GOP hoped to accomplish with that, from what I see it just makes Democrats more determined to vote.

[Nevilledog]

35. It can suppress turnout, but I think it's to support "rigged election" claims.

Republicans will use these manipulated polls to argue there was cheating if Dems win.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

68. That's my belief also

Prepare for "Stop the steal" part II

[Tomconroy]

30. The polls mostly show several close races within the margin of error.

I expect that is reality.

[Sympthsical]

69. Yep

The sense I get from polls over the last few weeks is that it is close and anything can tip things. The one true thing is that people need to vote.

I haven't seen any cause to adjust what I think happens in the past week. I think Republicans take the house somewhere in the 220-225 range and am cautiously optimistic that we have a split or slightly won Senate (52 is as high as I'm going, with 50/51 feeling more likely, because I think it's possible Pennsylvania shifts after that debate - possibly).

Maybe that undeniable tightness in it all has people extra anxious. But hey, we'll know in a week or so. I've voted. I've gotten others to vote. Whatever happens is gonna happen.

[OMGWTF]

31. Thom Hartmann was just saying this is laying the groundwork for the Rethugs to claim fraud.

[Jade Fox]

37. Exactly!

[Katinfl]

32. I gave up paying any attention to them years ago.

They can be spewed any way the pollster wants. The only poll that counts is the one a week from today. GOTV!

[FBaggins]

34. ReidOut left off "we hope"

That's where we're at now. The polls look bad... but we hope things aren't as bad as they look.

There appear to be some good reasons for that hope - and also reasons rebutting them.

Obviously all we can do it wait... vote... and make sure that like-minded citizens do the same.

[Joinfortmill]

36. Yup, been feeling that way for awhile now. VOTE.

[kevink077]

38. They are losing credibility

With these fake/ fly by night “pollsters” that come out of woodwork

[Mr.Mystery]

39. Someone years ago pointed out that 538 had a "good record" of predicting winners ONLY

when one candidate was a clear winner.

Take away those, and 538's percentage of accurate predictions approaches a coin toss.

[4139]

51. Why is it no one remembers 538's 2016 Hillary's whopper win?

I shake my head every time someone posts 538.

[Mr.Mystery]

60. EXACTLY!

I must have clicked on 538 five times a day for the two weeks before Nov 2016 election.

Every time, Clinton had way more blue balls than T****'s red balls.

[Pepsidog]

41. I can't read or hear about polls anymore. Too God damn frustrating.

[AZLD4Candidate]

43. Polls are as outdated as the white pages in an actual outdated phone book

They rely on landlines, and most people under 45 don't have one.

Hell, my 34 year old brother and most of my students back in the US didn't even know what a landline or a phone book were.

[pstokely]

50. and even many seniors are dumping their landlines

nt

[Efilroft Sul]

45. I said elsewhere we are experiencing the biggest gaslighting and voter suppression operation

The pollsters, the media, and the RNC are throwing all the bullshit at us that they can to discourage people from voting and defeating the Republican anti-democratic agenda. They are going for broke, because they are all morally bankrupt now.

[liberalgunwilltravel]

55. A good summary by Jennifer Rubin related to this.

4 reasons to be skeptical about election polling

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/01/polling-midterm-election-skeptical/

[lees1975]

57. Just note how far off the polls were in the special elections that have been held

tells you that some of their factors are outdated, off, or being underestimated.

Yes, 538 and RCP were both off in 2016, and they were both well off the mark in 2020. But they are averages and they don't really weigh the data equally.

Of course, we like those polls that agree with the way we are voting. But the differences in polls are pretty wide. There are still polls showing, for example, Fetterman with a 6 point lead over Oz, and they are current, news-media based and with much larger samples than the ones 538 is using to run its models. How does someone on the ground in the state come up with such different numbers than a New York based polling firm using phone numbers?

Personally, I'm hoping the polls miss the Democratic vote as badly as they did in Alaska, with Mary Peltola (11%), or in Kansas with the abortion referendum (15%), or even in New York 19, with Pat Ryan (8%). Or in Wisconsin and Georgia in 2020 (5%) .

[ColinC]

62. Early vote data is probably as reliable as polls tbh

In predicting what will happen -With few exceptions. The reality is we need to be patient and vigilant. If you want to win, knock on doors or volunteer in whatever way you can. If you want to just want to know what is going to happen, you gotta wait till election night… just one more week!

[Martin68]

67. Typical Republican/rightwing play: accuse polls of a liberal bias and then establish their own

polls with a very strong rightwing bias. Same with the media. They always accused the best journalism of liberal bias so they set up Fox New and talk radio to disseminate an extreme rightwing bias.

[SalamanderSleeps]

70. When Democrats vote we win.

National 2022 Early & Absentee Vote Report

Visit - https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022

I think we may be doing better than they say.

But, we have to GOTV!



I have driven 11 people to the BOE and I'm pretty sure at least 3 of them would not have voted had I not driven them.

[forthemiddle]

74. Watch the campaign, and not the polls

Is money being reallocated towards them or away?
Is the main campaign message being switched? Towards abortion and election integrity, or more towards crime and inflation?
All campaigns have internal polls that tell them almost exactly where they stand. They aren’t going to admit if they are losing, or if they have it in the bag, but there will signs on how things are going.
In other words… Follow the money!