Tomorrow's Power Ball lottery is $1.2 Billion...

[brooklynite]

Can we get our "its a scam against poor people" rants out early?

[rurallib]

1. how many times a week do they do the Powerball?

[brooklynite]

2. They upped it to three

Mon / Wed / Sat

[rurallib]

4. they really soak the suckers don't they?

back in my working days I think I threw $5 a week into the kitty to buy tickets

[Ocelot II]

3. It's a tax on people who can't do math, but once in awhile

I buy one anyhow.

[calguy]

8. When it first started years ago in California....

it was six numbers out of forty-nine.

I used to play it now and then because I could handle the odds of twelve million to one.

Now, with the additional numbers and the 'power ball' number on the side, the odds must be many hundreds of millions to one.

The lotto designers have really honed their skills over the years.

[A HERETIC I AM]

21. 1 in 292.2 million.

http://www.powerball.com/about

[MissB]

15. As Dh and I always say

Your chances increase from 0 to 1 tickets and not at all past that.

Dh went out to buy a powerball ticket yesterday and bought…exactly 1. The guy behind the counter suggested he might want to spend more on tickets and Dh said the above.

[Disaffected]

17. Why does buying more than one ticket

not increase your chances??

[Just_Vote_Dem]

20. The odds

1 ticket is millions upon millions to one to win, so theoretically you have to buy millions of tickets to increase your odds of winning even a little bit

[Disaffected]

24. Uh, no,

probability (of winning) doesn't work that way. Whatever the odds of a single ticket winning, buying a second ticket doubles the odds of winning (unless there is something different about Power Ball that I am not aware of). Similarly, buying three tickets gives three times the chances of winning over a single ticket etc.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

26. I stand corrected then n/t

[Meowmee]

29. Yep

The people who win frequently have bought several tickets as well. Or were in a pool etc.

[Johonny]

22. It does

But in a mathematically slight way. Unless you've got huge amounts of cash to spend, and if you do you don't need to win the lottery, then paying one increases you're odd significantly. 1 in 299 million is vastly better than zero.

[Disaffected]

27. Yes but,

buying two tickets would result in 2 in 292 million which is twice the chance of one ticket winning. Buying three tickets similarly gives chances of 3 in 292 million etc. etc. I presume then buying 292 million tickets would be a sure thing, if each ticket's numbers are different (unless I misunderstand how Power Ball works).

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

32. The numbers aren't different

People can buy tickets with identical numbers. So the odds never change. Each ticket you buy has the same odds.

[Disaffected]

34. That's right,

the odds of winning don't change but the payout might be diluted by a factor of two, three etc. depending on how many folks held the winning numbers.

There is in fact some strategy involved here when identical numbers are allowed. The idea is to pick a combination of numbers that is least likely to be chosen by others (to avoid having to share the winnings). For instance, since some folks will use their age in choosing the numbers, picking numbers less than the legal age of purchase would therefore give an advantage. Also, don't use combinations of numbers that others may choose such as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or some other sequence or, 20 & 22 or, 7 (considered by some to be a lucky number). Choosing 13 might be a good plan as some would avoid it and, it passes the age criteria. I also understand some will not choose odd numbers so those also might be good choices.

In the end though, it's pretty much all academic as the chances of winning are so small for any reasonable number of purchased tickets.

[ProfessorGAC]

28. Same Here

When it gets to an all-at-once prize equal to the odds, I buy. That's 292 million to 1, so at around $750 million I buy.
I know it's a $2 ticket, not a buck. That's OK. I conveniently ignore that part

[Disaffected]

30. Are you taking into account

the winnings are taxable and, there may be more than one jackpot winner (as I understand the rules)?

[ProfessorGAC]

31. Yes & No

The prize is the prize and all winnings are taxable. So, that's baked into the bet. If I bet a grand on double zero in roulette and net $34,000 I know I don't get to keep the whole $34k. Sane thing here.
No, I don't bother adjusting for the probability of multiple winning tickets because; the probability is tiny, and; it can't be precisely calculated without knowing an exact number of tickets sold.
I'm making a reasonable assumption that only one ticket will hit, despite the possibility 2 or more could.
It's not meant to be an exacting standard. Just my general rule.
BTW: the annuity value of the 25 year payout is based upon a statutory required investment plan. The annuity would cost a bit over 62% of total prize value.
As an illinoisan I'd pay roughly 39% in total income taxes. So, the after tax payout is a little under 38% of the stated prize.
At my starting value ($750 million), the post-tax payout would be over $280 million.
So, yes I've considered everything but ignored what I consider either minor or cost of plating the game.
Since the prize doesn't get to $750M that often, my ticket buying is a very minor investment.
In my life I haven't spent a hundred bucks on lottery tickets.

[Disaffected]

35. Yeah, the probability of multiple winners

is small alright and you are right, the payout is not immediate so that diminishes the real value somewhat.

ETA: In 2016, three winners shared $1.6 billion so the prob of multiple winners is not all that small (due to the large number of tickets sold I guess).

One other thing I'm wondering - if the winner is non-American, do full American taxes still apply and, are non-Americans eligible to purchase tickets (I might be better off financially in Canada as there are no lottery taxes here). Hmmm, I wonder if these tickets can be purchased on line...

[ProfessorGAC]

38. Opinion On Tax Question

They'll withhold anyway, foreign winner or not.
Then they'd refund the money, I'm sure after notifying the country of origin of this income.
As to multiple winners, I could only find 2 cases in all the lotto years.
Both were huge prizes where the system was flooded. If they sell 300 million tickets, at least 8 million pairs have to be sold.
Yeah it's a volume thing.

[calguy]

5. That means there are more than 1.2 billion losers out there.

Glad I'm not one of them.

[tritsofme]

6. Somebody's gotta win! When it gets this high, why not throw in $2?

[Tanuki]

44. I do the same. I figure the pleasant fantasy of

what I'd do if I won is worth the $2. It's a small bit of entertainment for an afternoon, like going to a movie.

[KPN]

7. Well, I guess that means I didn't win with the one ticket I bought yesterday.

What the heck I figured. One in a 293,000,000 million chance for $999 million was worth two bucks. Ah well, maybe next time.

[sarisataka]

9. $1.2 billion?

Maybe I'll buy a ticket. I hear that increases the chances of winning slightly.

[MLAA]

12. Oh, you know I think it does. I'm off to the Circle K 🙂

The first 50 million I spend will be to fund research in how to clone Mark Elias.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

10. The Lottery does act like a regressive tax on the poor and the desperate.

I think that is undeniable.

[brooklynite]

39. A tax is obligatory. Gambling is not.

Prohibition made essentially the same argument: people are to weak-willed to resist the demon rum.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

42. My will is fine. I've never purchased a lottery ticket because it is a financial stupid move.

How about you?

Someone must be buying tickets. And the thing is hyped to the max. Hell, even "news" programs feed the frenzy. Oh my, in act of perfect timing my local news is hyping in now.

And the disproportionate impact is on those who can least afford it.

[brooklynite]

45. I buy one ticket for high dollar jackpots.

I can afford $2 and tthe odds of winning are still greater than 0, so why not?

People have been gambling for millennia. Banning it has never been successful. You can give the proceeds to a numbers runner or to the Government for education funding.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

47. "Money for schools" is a siren song.

You know better than that.

And state-sponsored gambling disproportionately hurts the poor.

[ColinC]

11. ...

…

🤔 🧐

[Emile]

13. For that kind of money even I will spend two bucks!

I would move to Canada with a winter home in Hawaii.

[FoxNewsSucks]

14. I'll buy one,

but I would really like to see 1,200 winners get one million dollars each rather than all go to one winner.

[BlueTsunami2018]

16. Can't win if you don't play.

Almost certainly won’t win if you do play. But I’m certainly buying one.

[leftyladyfrommo]

18. I wish I could win. But you have to buy tickets and

I never do that.

It's a sucker bet but it sure is fun to dream.

[LeftInTX]

48. I always forget. In Texas you gotta pay cash too.

I rarely have cash.

[dweller]

19. I believe the odds are 1 in 2 billion

And are the same whether you buy a ticket or not

🤔




✌🏻

[ColinC]

23. Lol I do think the odds slightly increase if you buy a ticket

But only sligggggghhhhhtly

[Johonny]

25. It's hard to argue it's not worth 2 bucks

You're probably not winning, but I don't see why you wouldn't buy 1 ticket.

[BannonsLiver]

36. How very on brand.

“Oh, look at the plebes scramble for pennies in the street. It’s so amusing. Is there any crudite left?”

[brooklynite]

41. Its nice to know I can bring meaning to your life...

[WarGamer]

37. $2 is a bargain for a dream....

Don't think of it as buying a chance at $1.2B...

It's fuel for a pleasant 10-15 minute daydream... gets some endorphins flowing...

Worth it.

[SYFROYH]

40. The lottery funds the HOPE and Zell Miller scholarships in GA.

Thousands of GA college students receive funding for 90% - 100% of their tuition every year.

That alone is a good reason to play in GA. Not to mention the billion dollars.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

43. Buying Lottery tickets is a suckers move.

Give the money to good causes instead of shredding it.

"Bread and circuses" have been used to distract people from what actually important since Roman times. Don't fall for it.

[LeftInTX]

46. I always forget...Also, in Texas gotta pay with cash. I do have some cash right now, but usually

I don't.

[brooklynite]

51. Next drawing is Saturday; jackpot is $1.5 B.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

52. Think of all the Spam you can buy with that. NT

[GP6971]

53. Welcome to DU

I guess.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

54. Not so much, apparently. NT

[Elessar Zappa]

50. I'm gonna buy a few.

Yes, I understand math but someone has to win and $6 won’t break me.