Florida governor's race poll

[Qutzupalotl]

Link to tweet

Florida Governor:

Charlie Crist (D) 53% (+6)
Ron DeSantis (R-Inc) 47%

The Listener Group/@PoliticalMatrix, 633 LV, 10/27-28
http://www.panhandlepolitico.com/home/charlie-is-still-leading-ron/

[spanone]

1. K&R

[mopinko]

2. yes! now do val demmings.

i got a good feeling about fla. thought desatin's election was shady anyway.
lot more purple there than gets credit.

[ColinC]

3. Wut

[Saoirse9]

4. Oh please God let this be accurate n/t

[SWBTATTReg]

5. Moron (desantis) is talking his way out of a job, w/ his idiot rantings and ravings. Let's hope

the good people of FL vote him out and bring Mr. Crist in.

[mcar]

6. Oh please, oh please, oh please

[Celerity]

7. Outlier garbage poll. We cannot complain about all these dodgy Rethug polls yet rep this dross.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

8. I admire your principled consistency.

Looking at the link, they only called landlines over two nights between 4 and 8 pm. At least they weren't commissioned by any group.

Overall: agree with you. Would be nice if it were true, but there are reasons to be cautious.

[ColinC]

10. Yeah. Frankly if it turns out correct it probably won't be because

It was a well conducted poll. Lots of outlier polls get it right just by chance.

[honest.abe]

11. I assume their methodology is very different from the other pollsters.

Polling is so fucked up these days. Is it possible they are correct and all the others are wrong?

[Celerity]

14. here is their methodology (also a massive red flag that they have it zero undecided, zero 3rd party)

http://www.panhandlepolitico.com/home/charlie-is-still-leading-ron/

1. If the election were held today, who would you vote for between Charlie Crist and Ron DeSantis

Responses: 633 Total Overall %

1. Charlie Crist 338 53.4%
2. Ron DeSantis 295 46.6%

METHODOLOGY:

The persons sampled were Florida likely voters with a voting score of 100% for the primary and general election cycles. The voters called were those only with landlines and were called using live operator and Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system and were called during the hours of 4PM to 8PM on October 27-28, 2022. The Margin of Error for this study is +/- 3.27% with a confidence level of 95%.

Is it possible they are correct and all the others are wrong?

extremely, extremely unlikely, unfortunately

[honest.abe]

16. Yeah, I agree but shit who knows for sure given all the crap going on now.

I dont trust anyone these days. Many of the polling firms and the media all seemed illegitimately skewed to the Republicans. Maybe this firm is the only one trustworthy. Just give us a glimmer of hope. Ok??

[Celerity]

19. I can neither grant nor negate glimmers of hope. I do not have that power, and never will.

I also readily admit that i have (for the first time ever) no 'gut' feeling as to whether we will do great, so-so, or poorly in the midterms.

I am staggeringly tense and worried.

[honest.abe]

20. IMHO.. It could be a horrible disaster or an incredible unexpected victory across the board.

I can imagine either scenario.

Fuck the polls.

[Sympthsical]

46. Same same

I think you and I over the past few weeks have been coming away with the same sense of the polls and the same, "I really don't know." I always have a gut feeling about elections that is almost always very close to accurate, because I read all the different polls and articles pretty impassively.

No sense of how next week is going to go. It feels like no matter what the outcome is, I'll be able to look at the results and say, "I see how that happened."

I think it really is all about who turns out. Did Dobbs anger last? And it feels like this unknown thing you can't perceive well until election day.

[Deminpenn]

48. They likely got older voters, but

they also got voters who consistently vote every election. It's probably not a bad snapshot of where older voters, and there are a lot of them in FL, stand.

[Deminpenn]

49. They likely got older voters, but

they also got voters who consistently vote every election. It's probably not a bad snapshot of where older voters, and there are a lot of them in FL, stand.

[ForgedCrank]

21. Well,

damn.
I was all excited for a minute there. Party pooper.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

23. Didn't take long, did it?

I often think I've wandered in the wrong discussion group these days.

[ForgedCrank]

25. The first thing

that ran through my mind was asking what the hell happened to trigger a massive overnight swing like that?
Oh well, back to where I started I suppose.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

26. People keep forgetting that many of the big races in Florida end up being close

And I hope that repeats with us on the winning side for a change

[Qutzupalotl]

30. What caused the swing ... how about the DEBATE

The other polls are all pre-debate.

[SlimJimmy]

39. I get a lot flak sometimes with my posts on DU

because I go against the grain of the group. It's not that I'm putting out RW memes or talking points, I'm just trying to add some factual data to the discussion. My signature line outlines my political philosophy.

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, ... they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” John Adams

my emphasis added

[ForgedCrank]

43. I've learned

to not do that. Every time I try, I get hammered and posts hidden for "right wing talking points", which you would find outright hilarious if you knew me personally.
So anyway, I just can't have open debate anymore, and that sucks.

[Sympthsical]

47. Just be as annoying as possible

Seriously works for me just fine, lol.

I'm like super AOC style progressive most of the time. But . . . I really like reality. It feels more like going to into a church and trying to explain why maybe that book isn't providing all the salient facts.

Similar reactions. There are many stakes available in the parking lot, but I haven't been tied to one just yet.

[ForgedCrank]

53. I don't know, it's

not really in my nature to be annoying just for the fun of it. I'm a rather peaceful type and I like to promote real tolerance for others, not just certain ones. The most insufferable people are generally the ones who need acceptance the most.
I don't like the fighting, the bickering, the childish name calling, the Christian bashing, and people looking at one another with disdain. It really does make me sad to see it. I've found that as long as I'm cordial, everyone else usually is as well, at least in real life. I do my best to carry that over onto internet platforms and be my real self, regardless.
Doing so has gotten me 4 hides now, so I can't really engage anymore.

[Sympthsical]

54. Yeah, but that's why it's annoying

I don't see everyone who doesn't think like me as an irredeemable enemy. To the cloistered, sunlight is an irritant.

I think partisanship is very corrosive. I understand why politicians and those who work within that structure need to be partisan - it's the system. But I don't see why, as a regular person just slumming around life, I'd want or need to be that in all things at all times. It sounds completely wearying. It also generally requires an existence steeped in untruth. "Oh, they're all evil Nazis, Gabriel?"

When people are throwing Nazi terms at Steve Kornacki, it's like a window into an existence that seems completely miserable and anxious. I want to ask, "Is getting up even fun in the morning?" Because it doesn't sound very fun.

I have never gotten into it over politics in person. Just . . . ever. I'm trying hard to remember a single time where I've thrown down at random. People don't typically do that. I've never seen it outside of the odd viral video where the people involved don't seem entirely well-adjusted. That's why all the grocery store fantasias are funny. I never believe them (because they're not believable) and people don't generally act that way. It's all very, "And then I saw the baby, and the baby winked at me." Thanks, Ralph.

I have a Republican neighbor (about 100 feet from my house suburban becomes suddenly rural, so there's a fair few). He's fine. We've discussed car things and his son going into the Navy. He knows I'm gay. No one cares. "Welp, have a nice day." It's not difficult.

The Internet is easier to look at it sociologically like it's middle school. People get together, then have to one-up each other to show how much belonging they can belong to the other belonged. It's always more outrageous, more proof of credentials, more Scottish (who have ruined Scotland).

There are times when I want to say something and just opt for silly. Or do silly. The other day, I had someone argue incontestable science about something I'm currently in college studying and it was just . . . I just wandered off to the kitchen to do finger guns while listening to Abba. Not every leaf in the yard requires picking up.

(My partner would hotly contest that metaphor. Autumn is his hellscape. That's why it's red and orange)

[ForgedCrank]

55. That's a great

take on things, and I did enjoy reading it. Sounds pretty similar to my area, it's all red with a few of us sprinkled in here and there. We get along well with everyone. You can go to the diner in town during breakfast if you want to hear the farmers clobbering each other over politics, but even those guys laugh it off at the end, it's just a morning sport for them. The old timers have fun with that for some odd reason.
And tell your partner that I share his unhealthy obsession regarding the leaves.
After I clean it all up, I find myself running around for the next couple of hours snatching up the ones that came down to obnoxiously clutter my masterpiece of cleanliness. That is until eventually, the wife tells me how ridiculous I look.

[Sympthsical]

56. That is exactly how it goes

Get it all up, then he chases every leaf throughout the day. He uses a straw? hay? broom and does it leaf. by. leaf.

It drives me absolutely batty to watch him. I'm a very tidy, slightly fastidious person about neat and clean. However, you and he are on an entirely different level.

It finally rained today, and given we live in a valley they functions as a wind tunnel, I just peered outside and said, "Oh, you're screwed." Should've noted when we moved here that Natives called this the "place of the west wind" for a reason.

[Hortensis]

65. :) Four hides means you need to change your posting technique.

Been there. Disagreeing more than once or twice with passionate sorts who come to promote rigid issue positions or ideologies and/or populist/authoritarian agendas may be taken poorly.

Of course, it's normal and appropriate to respond with constructive truths to statements that reject/deny a lot of widely held, pluralistic Democratic viewpoints, especially when they replace relevant facts with disinformation -- and to disagree with people who've managed to redefine mostly mainstream thinking in their own minds as deviant, corrupt or RW. Providing ammunition to have a post hidden, though, is clear indication that tactics of engagement need tweaking.

Some group I offended got my hides up to 4 some while ago, I think 3 in a couple days by apparently alerting everything I posted, but I was irritated and sloppy-careless in how I pointed out that the views being pushed ignored important facts, denied critical realities, and did not reflect the attitudes of most Democrats, much less a workable democratic plurality of Americans. My problem wasn't that I was interjecting conventional, widely held beliefs and some apparently painful facts into discussions, but how I expressed them.

In most cases, wording messages to remain in compliance with the TOS protects them from removal. And when it doesn't, most unjust removes can be reversed on appeal -- as long as they're seen as conforming to the TOS.

And I'm assuming that at that point chances will be highest if a post managed to uphold the spirit of the TOS too. "Positive," "friendly," "constructive" as tactics of engagement.

[SlimJimmy]

60. Same thing here.

I'm a lifelong moderate Democrat. I guess the moderates in the party are now being described as RW. I never thought I'd see it, but here it is.

[Hortensis]

63. So, you're doing something right. Keep it up.

[Qutzupalotl]

38. This is the first poll after the debate on Oct. 25

I thought Crist did well, except he teed up a zinger for Ron at the end. But he took it with humor, and came off as likable. Desantis is not likable.

They are a Republican pollster, and I see they had the other outlier poll in the group, so I take your point and thank you for the research. But I'm eager to see how other post-debate polls look.

[Celerity]

40. look at the same poll before the debate, it's the same spread, so the debate had no effect, at least

in terms of this outlier polling firm's polls

[Qutzupalotl]

41. Yes, I saw that.

A slightly tighter margin of error, but the same spread. I wonder how they're modeling.

But remember, LV models can't see the youth vote, which is fired up by Dobbs and most don't have a landline. I wouldn't write off Crist just yet.

[FBaggins]

68. Outlier and garbage... but also not even their most recent poll on this race

They just released their final poll - with Crist behind 52-48

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2022/florida/

[Polybius]

9. Total outlier from an unknown company

Don't get your hopes up. Zero undecideds? Yeah ok.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

24. Yeah, we wouldn't want to do that.

[Polybius]

42. Nope

False confidence is even worse than no confidence.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

58. "False confidence"?

I disagree. Worse to live in a negative mode, thinking the sky is falling all the time. Life is too short

[Deminpenn]

50. Poll didn't give an undecided option

It made the respondent pick one or the other candidate. That's how you get no undecideds. Otherwise the pollster would have to include "learners" in the top line number.

[Polybius]

51. So if someone answered "not sure yet", they get skipped over?

Hmm, who do most undecideds go for anyway?

[Deminpenn]

52. There's no choice on IVR calls

It's just press 1 or press 2. Even ini e calls, if given just two choices, people will pick one or the other.

[nycbos]

12. No way this is accurate.

[beaglelover]

13. Agreed.

[SoCalDavidS]

15. $100 Donation To DU If DeSatan Loses

Bookmark this please.

There's simply no way he's going to allow himself to lose. The majority of FL voters are too stupid to vote for Charlie.

[jimfields33]

22. Yieks. They did 10 years ago.

[Jose Garcia]

33. Crist didn't run 10 years ago

He lost the election for Governor 8 years ago (2014) against Rick Scott.

He lost the election for US Senate 12 yars ago (2010) against Marco Rubio.

It was 16 years (2006) ago when he was elected Governor, but that was when he was a Republican.

[jimfields33]

34. It applies. Just got years wrong. Same context.

[SoCalDavidS]

45. Floridians Love DeSatan And They Love Owning The Libs

They didn't even mind dying for him from his PATHETIC Covid policies.

I am shocked that after the last 2 1/2 years, there are still so many voters who gladly support him.

I hope that I get the opportunity to donate $100 to DU, but I'm not holding my breath.

[iemanja]

66. When he was a Republican is the same as when he is a Democrat?

Not in America.

[Zambero]

17. Could there be any possibility of...

MAGATs in Florida and elsewhere perceiving DeSantis as a potential threat to TFG securing the 2024 nomination, to the point of sabotaging his re-election bid? If enough of them go for Crist, the outcome of the election could be impacted. And if DeSantis goes down in flames, his stock as a potential GOP presidential candidate would likely collapse. Just wondering.

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

18. "The voters called were only those with landlines"....633 surveys....good luck wit dat

[Meadowoak]

31. They might have got a lot of seniors that are worried about

Social Security and medicare, I don't know who else that would still have a landline.

[newdayneeded]

59. that's actually great news!

Seniors are the only people with landlines. Seniors usually break to the right, but are apparently looking left now. This could be a big deal.

[Genki Hikari]

27. I dunno.

My understanding of FL is that if the D isn't up by 10, then losing is a real possibility. The r party built a crazy machine down there.

[budkin]

28. No way

There’s just no way that’s even close to reality.

[RANDYWILDMAN]

29. Ron Desucko must go !

Go Charlie

[flamingdem]

32. I like this poll

[Gore1FL]

35. It's hard to root for Charlie Crist until you peer over at DeSantis.

He is hoping for a Crist victory!

He sucks a lot less!

[Ford_Prefect]

36. I like this poll too. It gives me a bit of hope... However, in Florida, where every single vote is

going to be accounted for by an enormously corrupt state and local government, I'll believe it when the vote is certified.

[Tribetime]

37. Two for one knock out Rubio too 😅

[Takket]

44. yeah....... wish that was believable but desantis has had that wrapped up for months.

[William769]

57. God, I hope this poll holds.

[tavernier]

61. I wish. But sadly little macho Napolean

will probably win. He is cleaning up the Cuban vote because they love his dictatorial manner. Go figure…

And since I see no Crist ads, he’s probably had them all removed with threats and bluster. Plus he has all the big money businesses in his pocket because he takes care of them first. Publix got first Covid distribution rights, Ocean Reef (or Billionaire’s Ocean Grief as locals call it) and The Villages (Republicanville) got their vaccinations exclusively long before anyone else in Florida. For the rest of us it was a lotto draw.

He is a bully to the poor and a glad hander to the rich, and his method seems to work.

[Jose Garcia]

62. Today we find out if these pollsters are geniuses or idiots

[Liberal In Texas]

64. You wouldn't know it watching "Morning Joe" on MSNBC.

They're predicting a massive win for DeSatan.

[iemanja]

67. Every other poll but this one predicts a DeSantis win

some by 9 points.

[Sky Jewels]

69. I am optimistic in general, but not for Florida specifically.

I think it's a lost cause for the foreseeable future. We'll have to work on other areas.