Good news in Iowa, bad in Nevada

[dsc]

First the good news. The best pollster in Iowa, by far, has the race with in the MOE.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/10/15/iowa-us-senate-race-chuck-grassley-mike-franken-poll-election/69562063007/

Grassley 46, Franken 43, Und 6

The bad news in Nevada is the early vote. We are below both 2018 and 2020 in terms of margin.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022

Good morning, fellow data geeks.

Eleven days complete, three days of in-person voting left, and where are we?

Caveat that no Clark mail was processed overnight, but:

Rs gained 2,000 in Clark and lost 300 in Washoe for a net urban gain of 1,700. The urban numbers are now 41.9 percent Dems and 35.3 percent Rs, a 6.6 percent margin, which, as I have told you, is below what it was the last two cycles when all was said and done. (I think Dems need that to be 7 or 8 points to feel comfortable.)

One hopes we can still win NV but it isn't looking great. On the other hand, Iowa is looking very good from the only pollster who had it right in 2020.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

1. Ralston has been careful to say that it's hard to compare with previous years.

There have been big changes in how Nevadans vote. But yes, things are a little pessimistic in NV right now, but there's still time for things to get better.

I really like Sen. Cortez Masto, though. I really hope she pulls this out.

[ColinC]

2. This emphasizes the need to knock on doors if in Nevada

GOTV will mean everything this year.

And Dems still have a solid advantage in registration according to the article!

One other data point of note: According to the SOS, the Dems gained more than 2,000 registered voters on the GOP last month, which may not seem like a lot but in these close races, up and down the ballot, could make a difference. The statewide Dem lead is now 52,340.

My old mantra: Demographics are not destiny, but they… matter.

Also, Iowa is looking good in the early vote numbers!

[Lovie777]

3. I think NV will be ok .......

As to Beto in Texas and Franken in Iowa both are looking good considering the up hill battles. Corporate media - crickets.

They harp on Dems 24/7.

[W_HAMILTON]

6. We always used to be okay in NV because of the so-called "Harry Reid Machine..."

...but after news earlier this year about how some Democrats in that state wanted to upend the entire system, I don't know... I'm definitely a little more worried about that state this year around because of that news earlier in the year.

[HiltonHeadDem]

4. Lets get those mail in votes in people!!

[dsc]

5. It sounds like the updates are intermittent as well

[Indykatie]

7. Who Ever Thought We'd End Up Here - Chance to Win IA but May Lose NV

Harry Reid is turning over in his grave. I have faith that the Reid machine will pull out a win for the NV Senate seat. Obama was there so that should help improve turnout.