Young American's astonishing low voting participation in early votes

[OnlinePoker]

Found this in Reddit's Data is Beautiful sub. It makes sense that people 65 and over will have more time to vote early and don't want to stand in long lines on election day, but the low turnout in both the 18-29 and 30-39 is pretty distressing. Hopefully it changes on Tuesday, but I'm not hopeful. The link at the bottom is the actual NBC page this data came from.



https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/early-vote?icid=election_nav

[Hassler]

1. Yes, why should the young vote? It's only their future lives for the next 50 years on the line.

[pstokely]

2. even the 40 something vote is low

?

[Sympthsical]

20. We're a busy people

Seriously, if California didn't spoon feed me my ballot and let me just toss it in my mailbox to return, I'd probably have ended up going to the polling place on election day.

Secretary of State's probably all like, "Do you want us to fill it out for you, too?!" I mean, wouldn't say no.

[ColinC]

3. Their return rate is at about 40-50 percent

Polls show that is 18-29 year olds intend to vote at rates of about 45-55 percent. History shows they vote later than most other voters. If the young voters maintain a 40-50% turnout, it will be a record turnout for them. We need to give it time before drawing conclusions. And also reminding them….over and over.

[Mosby]

10. I think that's for general elections.

Mid term turnout is in the range of 20% for 18-29 demo.

[Celerity]

18. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, voter turnout went from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the

largest percentage point increase for any age group — a 79 percent jump.

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/04/behind-2018-united-states-midterm-election-turnout.html

[ColinC]

35. Yeah it'll be a big deal if they actually turnout at 2018 levels again.

And we could be in trouble if they don’t.

[ColinC]

37. Also from the latest Harvard youth poll

A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School indicates that 40% of 18-to-29-year-olds state that they will “definitely" vote in the November 8 midterm elections, on track to match or potentially exceed the record-breaking 2018 youth turnout in a midterm election. Young voters prefer Democratic control of Congress 57% to 31% (up five points for Democrats since spring), but 12% remain undecided.

https://iop.harvard.edu/fall-2022-harvard-youth-poll

[JI7]

4. Young voters always have low turnout. Why do people expect anything different

the biggest reason is that they just don't pay attention to politics that much.

There might be a slight increase when you have someone like Obama or something else in Presidential years.

But Beto O'Rourke supports legalization of Marijuana . And there are always people throwing that out to claim that will get young voters. But are they going to come out for him over that issue ?

It's fine if you support things like loan forgiveness , legalization of marijuana and other things. But people need to stop their bs by claiming young voters are not voting for candidates because they don't support those issues.

[betsuni]

8. Yes. Loan forgiveness, legalizing marijuana and the like, I've always thought it

doesn't make a difference in voting.

[Patterson]

5. You idiots will get what you deserve and deserve what you get.

[global1]

6. I Talked To A 23 y/o That Said He Wasn't Going To Vote Tues....

I asked why and he said "We're all electioned out. It's elections 24/7 these days and we're sick of it. You already know that Wed - the day after the Midterms - they're going to start the campaigning for 2024. We're sick of it. We're done. When are they going to start representing us and stop running. I've had it."

I tried to talk some sense in him and how it really is more important for his age groups future - and he wouldn't listen.

We do kind of do go from election to election and unless one is really tuned into politics like we are here at DU - the average American sees little change.

[reymega life]

7. I think we should mandate voting like health care

[Sky Jewels]

58. It should be mandatory like in Australia.

Also, we should limit the campaign season to three months.

And, of course, we need massive reform to get the dark money out ... not holding my breath on that one though.

[Polybius]

12. So he wants less or no elections?

Yikes!

[Sympthsical]

21. Less campaigns

Honestly, with the Internet and cable news, it feels like life is a non-stop campaign now. We haven't even voted in this one, and so many articles are discussing who's running in 2024, and who will announce when, etc.

I am already stone cold sick of hearing about it - and I actually like following politics.

It's gotten to be too much. Social media is part of it. The need for candidates to stake out early because they need those early millions is also part of it.

We should be like the British. No one say shit until like four months out. In the interim, just shut up and govern.

[Bettie]

41. YES!

I always hear about how this or that can't be done because it's campaign season...well, it always is, it never ends.

[Sympthsical]

46. "There's an election coming in 447 months!!!"

Yeah, LGBT know all about that one, lol.

Tch, there's always an election coming. It's a democracy.

[Bettie]

49. There used to be at least a month or so

when we could, for example, safely open email without having to wade through 100 or more emails about fundraising. It never stops, not even for a day.

[Sympthsical]

50. Mailers are my tie-breaker

Usually with local candidates. If I could go either way on voting for someone or their opponent, I count up how much shit has ended up in my mailbox in the prior weeks.

Whoever killed more trees loses.

[TheFarseer]

68. You'll never hear this in our media

because they love the ad dollars from political campaigns. One of the dirtiest secrets in the USA is our bought and paid for media.

[Sympthsical]

69. I've been reading

That what's-his-ass is going to announce he's running for president the week after midterms.

Just kill me. Two years of polling and drama and match ups and speculation and . . .

No one wants this. I think it turns people off from politics. They can't get a break. It feels almost desensitizing. Like it's almost intended to get people to tune it all out.

[yardwork]

27. The Republicans are working on that. Some people really do want fascism.

[OnlinePoker]

28. Extend the congressional term to 4 years.

People want continuity and you don't get that with a congress that could change direction every 2 years.

[betsuni]

13. But advertising of all kinds is everywhere every day and now this is just another kind.

Shame anyone believes the propaganda that Democrats ignore everyone and don't do anything. Makes me think of some people I know: what the hell was that fancy college education for? You didn't learn critical thinking or how to research something before forming an opinion?

[anarch]

17. oh, sure, just let the GOP take control and they'll probably do away with voting altogether

and just seize and maintain control by force of arms, so they can focus full-time on oppression and cruelty, then nobody will have to worry about the annoying endless election cycle anymore

[betsuni]

23. They'll retain their righteous authenticity moral purity and "vote their conscience" and so on.

Because they believed propaganda. Enjoy, idiots!

[Genki Hikari]

47. So tell fools like that

1) How they're voting, even if they're not going into a booth and marking a ballot.

They're saying that they're fine with how everything is, so they're voting for everything to stay the same.

2) That if they don't want to vote, well, a certain party wants to make sure that there's never any voting, ever again. Is that what they want? No voting--letting the rich and powerful decide for them what will become of them? Then go ahead and keep not voting, and letting other people decide for you, anti-American moron punk.

I've had it with these wah wah wah anti-voting TRAITORS.

[Funtatlaguy]

9. So, let me get this straight...

Losing Roe doesn’t motivate the youth
Legalizing marijuana doesn’t
College debt forgiveness doesn’t
Fighting climate change doesn’t
Gun safety doesn’t
Saving democracy doesn’t

What would it take? I really don’t understand.

[betsuni]

24. +1

[mcar]

40. Makes me wonder what I've been fighting for all these years

SCOTUS overturning ROE no longer affects me personally but I'm still out there rallying, doing voter protection and GOTV activities.

If young women don't care that they've become 2nd class citizens, then so be it.

[Genki Hikari]

48. Growing a damned brain

Good luck with that.

[Genki Hikari]

51. Very little ever has gotten them to vote.

Why expect that to change now?

The science says that their brains aren't fully developed until 25. So tell them that if they don't start proving that they're capable of adult behavior before that age by accepting some of the RESPONSIBILITIES of being an adult, then we might as well raise the legal adult age to 25. That means no voting, no marriage, no drinking and no driving until then.

Put it up to a vote, and see what that does to their turnout.

[scipan]

57. Not so fast. This seems to be the gold standard on youth voting:

Forty percent (40%) of young Americans report that they will “definitely” vote in the upcoming midterms, matching the proportion of young Americans who said the same in the IOP’s fall 2018 survey. The number of young Americans likely to vote has increased four percentage points since spring 2022 Harvard IOP polling – and is 14 points higher than 2014 and 13 points higher than 2010 fall benchmarks. (In 2019, the U.S. Census noted that turnout among 18- to 29-year-olds increased from 20 percent in 2014 to 36 percent in 2018, the largest percentage point increase for any age group.)

https://iop.harvard.edu/fall-2022-harvard-youth-poll

[Mr.Bill]

60. An Avocado shortage.

[bamagal62]

11. Neither of my kids vote early.

They’re in their 20s. My oldest will always wait until the last minute. Actually, I have not voted yet either. Plan on doing it tomorrow.

[Act_of_Reparation]

63. I blame their parents

[bamagal62]

65. Blame their parents for what?

Not voting early?

[msongs]

14. the young have priorities, better to spread mashed potatos on famous paintings

[Sympthsical]

25. Because complaining about Morning Joe is important work

If we're using three people as a measure of generalized sentiment.

[BlackSkimmer]

36. Lol.

Well done.

[Torchlight]

39. That calls for a double-shot of Metamucil

and some arbitrarily bad Yelp reviews.

[SoCalDavidS]

15. I Hope They Enjoy The Shithole Country They Will Inherit

I'll probably be off living my retirement years elsewhere, because they were too fucking busy watching the Kardashians, or whatever the fuck is more important, than voting to save Democracy.

Fuck 'Em.

[Kaleva]

33. Regardless if they vote or not, climate change will make their futures very tough

[SoCalDavidS]

43. Honestly, At This Point, I Couldn't Care Less

I'll be dead, and they can all suffer. I'm sorry that there are many who will also suffer, even though they did care, but that won't be my fault. I voted, and did what I could to prevent it. We can't blame ourselves for the fact others don't give a shit.

[ck4829]

45. I think people are tired of Republicans winning and then Democrats are elected to fix their messes

I vote but I am tired to bailing people who vote for Republicans out.

[tirebiter]

16. May be time to restart the draft

That one issue got me really interested in politics. And make it universal.

[AntivaxHunters]

30. Absolutely a hard NO!

This would have the opposite effect considering young voters are VERY anti-war & having them do indentured servitude is nothing they'd support. Platforming, supporting, & listening to the policies the younger generations want is how we win them over. The draft shouldn't even exist. This would cause massive dissent. Like a whole lot.

[Lancero]

67. A draft isn't much of a threat if you know you'll never qualify.

https://www.military.com/join-military/contact-recruiter/6-reasons-you-probably-wont-be-conscripted-even-if-we-bring-back-draft.html

[Takket]

19. Worrysome

Yeah the younger crowd that lives On their phones and tiktok is NOT investing time in waiting in line to vote in large numbers. Hopefully they plan on voting absentee or over the weekend!!!

[BannonsLiver]

22. Somebody needs to settle on a narrative

Read the exact opposite here not 3-4 days ago.

[stopdiggin]

26. yes, that's true.

We seem to be all over the map (on pretty much everything). Here's what I see - polling is one thing (and generally involves some, even if poor, data), and can generally be taken with a large grain of salt - but plain old 'opinion' (talked to my BIL) can fly free of fact at any time.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

29. Whew this thread.

[AntivaxHunters]

31. Ya......no kidding.......

[Celerity]

38. It's par for the course since I joined the board in mid 2018.

Sigh.

[ismnotwasm]

53. No shit

I’m cringing so hard

[demmiblue]

72. ...

[Efilroft Sul]

32. The kids I know are showing up on Tuesday or have already mailed absentee ballots from college.

Take that for what it's worth.

[peggysue2]

34. No sense damning the youth vote until we see what turnout is like on E-day

Pre-Covid, a sizable chunk of the youth vote reportedly came from in-person voting on Election Day. I suspect this weekend there will be a load of organizers on the ground whipping the weeds for votes. Our top vote and inspiration getter, President Obama, has been across the country firing up the electorate in the way only he can. The press, of course, has defined this as Dems 'fearing a drubbing'. But could it be that Dem operatives smell blood in the water?

The Democratic lead in the early vote is very encouraging. Nationally at the moment, we're going into Tuesday with a 3.5 million vote lead. In Pennsylvania, where thus far 1 million votes have been cast, Dems hold a 500,000+ lead.

No one has a crystal ball on the outcome. But for a party left for dead 10 short months ago, we're in a different landscape.

Fired up and ready to go!

[Bettie]

52. But where's the fun in that?

A group of people around here LOVE to talk about how terrible kids today are.

But, when looking at issues that affect younger people, they go on about how they have to 'wait their turn' for any issue to be addressed and expecting any action on anything is 'wanting a pony'.

[peggysue2]

54. LOL!!

I hear you. I've done some carping in my day.

Just think we'd all be better served by a little more patience at this point and give the young voters a chance to show their moxie. Or not.

If the latter? We can howl and screech in the aftermath. But now? I just don't see the point and frankly it deflects from the encouraging news out there.

But then, I've always been a 'glass is half-full" type. Guess we all choose our own poison.

[Act_of_Reparation]

61. The really hilarious part about it is they experienced the same shit from their parents...

...and their grandparents, and seem completely oblivious to the pattern repeating itself.

[Bettie]

62. It's because those kids today

with their clothes and their music and all their newfangled technology! Why, back in MY day....

[Tommymac]

55. RE PA that is not true. PA does not count their mail-in ballots until AFTER Election day polls close

If they are saying that more Democrats then Rethugs have mailed them in that could be true. In PA one CAN track the percentage of each parties mail-in ballots received from Dems, Rethugs or Indies.



#GOTV2022
#ROEVEMBER2022
#BlueWAve2022

[peggysue2]

56. Yes, the actual count doesn't happen immediately

But we can get a sense of what's happening with the data from the early votes cast by registration info. There's an OP on the board right now about the surge in early votes from young voters in Pennsylvania. The numbers vastly over-perform the 2018 model.

This is Good News!! Let's shake off the grouchies, as one Dem analyst suggested.

No one has that 100% crystal ball at his or her disposal. However, that Red Wave that's been predicted, ad nauseam? No one has really spotted it on the horizon.

As I've said before--I'm cautiously optimistic.

We get our people out, we have a genuine shot of holding our own in a contest where we were considered roadkill just a few short months ago.

I'm banging the drum.

[W_HAMILTON]

59. I assume their information is based on early voting data from TargetSmart.

Here is the link to their data regarding Pennsylvania early voting:

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2022?state=PA&view_type=state

[peggysue2]

70. Yes, that's exactly where the info comes from

The dashboard is an easy tool to scroll through state-to-state as well as check gender, age, race. etc breakdowns in the voting data thus far. Can't predict final outcomes but gives us a glimpse of what's going on leading up to E-day.

[BumRushDaShow]

71. Here is something that I posted that I heard the past couple days

that could give a sense of the young college age students voting preferences/enthusiasm here in PA - https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217321186

Apparently from their survey, 70% who responded intended to vote "in person" on election day, so if there is an increase in mail-ins (absentee - no-excuse or excuse) from that demographic, that would be good news pointing to a higher turn out than 2018 (which was all "in-person" except for "excused" absentee ballots) or hopefully commensurate to turnout seen in 2020 (which is a higher hurdle but then gubernatorial election years usually generate an enhanced turnout).

[peggysue2]

74. Yup, I've been reading the same sort of forecasts

The younger voters reportedly have been traditionally E-day voters with the exception of the high-Covid spread years. Forecasters expect those pre-Covid voting trends to return for the younger set.

I can't help but feel that the ability to go back to door-to-door canvassing also helps. Democrats took Covid seriously during that period, so all person-to-person contacts were reduced, if not eliminated. Remember the Repugs howling about Joe Biden running his campaign from his basement? Yet, he still won!

Also read that the DNC invested $75 million in Democratic early-voting infrastructure in 8 targeted states. Looking at the mega early numbers that strategy appears to have paid off in getting high-frequency, reliable voters to vote early, so that on-the-ground organizers can dedicate their time convincing as many lower-propensity voters as possible to the polls on Tuesday.

Rick Wilson made a comment a couple years ago that the way Repugs built up a Florida advantage was through an early-vote strategy. He referred to it as their 'secret sauce'. It appears our Democratic leadership decided to try the secret sauce for themselves.

We'll find out very shortly if the strategy worked.

Personally, I'm encouraged. We shall see.

[OnionPatch]

64. My 22-yr-old is planning to vote in person

and so are her friends (all liberals). I doubt they even know where to vote early but they know where their precincts are and are planning to go on the 8th. I hope this is the case with a lot of young people.

[Emile]

42. Sounds like we need to call our kids. Help GOTV

[Wingus Dingus]

44. Ha ha ha ha...yeah. I wasn't a steady voter until my 30's.

Never count on the youth vote.

[yellowdogintexas]

66. I don't know about the rest of the state but

our schools are closed on Election Day here in Tarrant County, which could favor turnout on Election Day.

The high schools have been sending bus loads to the nearest voting site. I know at least 5 in FWISD sent busloads; the nearest to us did that on Tuesday. Since we can vote at any voting location in the county on Election Day there is a convenient place to vote just about anywhere (we will have 350 open locations).This could also favor turnout.

I keep hearing Democrats are voting in greater numbers; these numbers are based on whatever primary a voter chooses.
We have an unknown universe of non voters, voters who never vote in primaries and newly registered voters. We have no idea what they will do.

[Demsrule86]

73. That is not true. There is a great deal of young voters voting...in fact check out PA...what is the

purpose of posting this? New poll out this morning contradicts this. If you found this on a Reddit site where is the link to the site. Your link is not the poll presented...how about a link?

[OnlinePoker]

76. Look under the image

There's a link to the NBC site the data was taken from. Blame NBC if you think the data is wrong.

On edit: here are the PA numbers from NBC: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/pennsylvania-results

[ProfessorGAC]

75. Requires Context

What is the % of younger voters that do so early, as opposed to voting on election day?
A proper conclusion would be drawn by comparing these early vote numbers to those expected for a given demographic.
Let's just say that in '20, 15% of all 18-29 voters voted early. This would put them at 40% of that value. For a midterm, that might beOK, and there's days left before election day.
Absent that context, I'm not convinced these numbers mean much at this point.

[Celerity]

77. This typical youth bash attempt aged well!! .... NOT

[SunImp]

78. +1

Doing popular things like student loan forgiveness, supporting abortion & pardoning people for marijuana possession helped push the youth to go out & vote