"Dems brace for losses" "Dems on the Defensive"

[senseandsensibility]

It suddenly dawned on me what's behind this language. If Dems were actually behind, they would say that, wouldn't they? These are weasel words, and more evidence of the media helping repubs with their messaging.

Currently, CNN has a headline on its page saying the Dems are preparing for losses in New York, including the Governor's race. But she is not actually behind. They want us to think it's all hopeless.

I call it Midterm Mindgames. Don't play their game.

[gab13by13]

1. Then why repeat it here?

[iemanja]

3. Exactly

[live love laugh]

12. Maybe to show ROM antiDem messaging

* Republican-owned media

[senseandsensibility]

13. I thought that was obvious

But thanks.

[Qutzupalotl]

38. I thought the quotation marks helped make it clear

but people do skim the headlines here.

I've found that it helps to put a counterpoint in your thread title, something like “—not so fast!” “Oh REALLY?” or just “FALSE.” So it's impossible to miss.

[LenaBaby61]

47. We know that Latino's not voting Dem in Arizona ......the corporate media said so, so it is so.

Right?


For Latino's who vote, and they must get out VOTE!!!!

Latino voters in Arizona support Sen. Mark Kelly by nearly 40 point margin, Univision poll finds.

This is Univision poll.

Nevada isn’t the only western state where Latinos could help decide control of the U.S. Senate. In Arizona, continued polling from Univision and its partners has Sen. Mark Kelly ahead of right-wing extremist Blake Masters by 4 points, with 11% undecided. But among the state’s registered Latino voters, the former astronaut leads by nearly 40 points.

“Latino voters, who represent 22.8% of the state's total electorate, according to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), back Kelly by a large 60% to 23% margin, and non-Hispanic white voters favor Masters by 46% to 39%,” Univision said in its report.

RELATED STORY: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto's massive lead among Latino voters could help secure her reelection

The polling, conducted by Univision, the Center for Latino/os and American Politics Research at Arizona State University, and Northern Arizona University also shows support for Proposition 308, the measure opening in-state tuition rates to young undocumented immigrants who have grown up in the state. Among registered Latinos in the state, 68% support the proposition. Support is 55% among registered Arizonans overall.

The measure has been supported by dozens of state Republicans and earned the endorsement of former President Barack Obama just this week, who called it the “right thing to do.” Polling on the measure has been encouraging, especially considering that the proposition that initially barred higher education fairness to undocumented young people passed with support from two-thirds of voters more than 15 years ago.

Latinos and Arizonans overall also favor addressing both legalization for undocumented immigrants and border security. Republicans have often pushed a “border security first” approach that only seeks to delay long-overdue legalization. But when asked if they agreed with addressing border security first with a focus on legalization later, or addressing both at the same time, 68% of Latinos and 57% of Arizonans overall picked the second option. Support for a pathway to citizenship is overwhelming among Latino voters at 82%. But it’s also strong among Arizonans overall at 64%.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/4/2133550/-Latino-voters-in-Arizona-overwhelmingly-favor-Mark-Kelly-a-key-race-in-control-of-the-U-S-Senate

[senseandsensibility]

52. All good points.

Thanks for the post, and I hope the unions in Las Vegas come through. There's always been good Latino participation and leadership there, but I haven't heard much about it this year.

[LenaBaby61]

34. REALLY THIS 👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻

[Peregrine Took]

44. Amen! N/t

[MyMission]

53. So we can vent our feelings about it

Because it pisses me off that MSM paints doom and gloom, repeats conservative talking points, and is also setting things up for some battles when Dems win. The GOPQ will reject the results they don't like, claiming polls show they should have won, so we must have cheated. MSM will capitalize on that too.

[Bettie]

56. She explained why it isn't a lost cause

and it is important to look at framing.

Especially considering how many daily threads there are on how we are about to lose everything.

[ColinC]

2. We don't know what is going to happen

I don’t understand why the media and prognosticators have to act like we do?

[kelly1mm]

4. It is a fact that we Democrats are pouring money into districts President Biden won and into

once 'safe' Senate campaigns like WA and NH. Facts on the ground show we Democrats are on defense.

[MerryHolidays]

7. You could say the same about the Utah and Iowa Senate races

Early voting numbers are heavily in favor of the Democrats nationwide. I prefer our chances to theirs.

[Ace Rothstein]

17. Early voting numbers aren't really telling of anything.

Especially when Republicans push their people to all vote on Election Day.

[MerryHolidays]

19. That's not accurate at all

It's not definitive, but it has enormous value in terms of demonstrating enthusiasm.

See, for example: https://time.com/6223871/midterms-voting-turnout-results/

[senseandsensibility]

21. Thanks for this

[Ace Rothstein]

25. Didn't work out too well for us in 2016.

[MerryHolidays]

36. Well, it sure did in 2018 and 2020

[Ace Rothstein]

48. Both of those elections were very mixed bags.

They were quite bad at the state level which has been killing us since 2010.

[kelly1mm]

22. I did - sorry! nt

[Ace Rothstein]

27. I think you responded to the wrong person.

I definitely don't think there is a chance we keep the House. I hope to be surprised though.

[kelly1mm]

23. .

[kelly1mm]

26. I am particularly concerned about house races that should

Be easy but are not. It looks like we Democrats are playing defense just to keep the Republicans less than 35 pickups. To put it an other way we may lose 15-20% of our current house members.

[MerryHolidays]

28. Based on what? Polls? nt

[kelly1mm]

29. Based on we Democrats pouring money into races we should be winning easily and NOT

pouring money into races that would be a toss up or a stretch. Don't follow the polls - follow the money. If we are having to pour resources into districts President Biden won by 5%+ there is a problem. Also, how many Trump +5% districts are we even fighting for? Answering that should give you a hint on what will happen Tuesday.

[MerryHolidays]

32. Again, the Republicans are doing for sure in Senate races that should be easy for them

Ohio, Utah, Ohio, etc.

You could be right given how gerrymandered districts are, but in statewide elections like US Senator and Governor, the Democrats are doing well.

[kelly1mm]

33. We will see on Tuesday but I am thinking the Republicans get 51+ Senators and 230+ House seats. nt

[MerryHolidays]

35. Great. That's your view. nt

[kelly1mm]

39. I will mark this thread and reply on Wednesday. I hope I am proven wrong. NT

[MerryHolidays]

41. Feel free to. I am not sure why you would want to, but your call. nt

[kelly1mm]

45. If I am wrong as I hope to be to apologize and let you know you were right. If I am right

and unfortunately the Republicans win both the House and the Senate to remind you in the future to see where we Democrats are having to pour money into races that should be slam dunks and how that translates into our electoral prospects.

I would assume that you would do the same as we are engaging in conversation. I mean that is what people do in conversations, right? Admit when they are wrong and concede the point? I guess you COULD just not engage and at least acknowledge you were wrong but that would say a lot about you.

[NBachers]

54. I think I'm going to go clean out the refrigerator.

[kelly1mm]

83. You were right and I was wrong. The country is better off for it! nt

[MerryHolidays]

84. Thanks but totally unnecessary. I'm not a "I told you so" - type person...

Except to Rethugs!

We all are right to have renounced all of this awfulness. It's not totally over, but this really put a dent in MAGAism.

Congrats to all of us, and let's hope we hold on to the Congress!

[Demsrule86]

57. NO.

[kelly1mm]

31. You actually think we Democrats will keep the House? nt

[Demsrule86]

55. The current Senator barely won New Hampshire...I suggest you look it up. And you are wrong. We are

doing pretty well and I think we may win this thing in the end.

[elleng]

5. Right, mindgames,

as stated yesterday by M. Moore and Senator McCaskill.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1017&pid=780403

https://twitter.com/clairecmc?lang=en

[durablend]

6. MSM wants chaos if Republican lose

All those contested races mean MORE EYEBALLS.

[LenaBaby61]

37. REALLY THIS 👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻

[bullimiami]

8. i thought i had seen the same a few days back about the michigan gov race.

then i see polls where its not even close.

its an obvious wtf.

[senseandsensibility]

9. Exactly.

Dems are actually ahead in most cases. They never seem to say that Repugs are braced for losses when the R's are a few points ahead. It doesn't make sense, and I see it as propaganda.

[LenaBaby61]

42. My friend lives in Detroit ...

And he told me that the governors race is all but OVER, and that was a MONTH ago. Even some of his friends who are Republican's tell him that it's horrible the way the media is trying to help the Republicans win or create this horse race narrative--and that's coming from his GOP friends. But then again, they are 'normal' not 'MAGGOTS.'

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

49. I live just outside of Detroit

If the race was over last month then President Obama would not have been in Detroit last week campaigning for her. I still think she will win, but internals are showing the race much closer then public polling or else President Obama would not have been here. You don't send your top star to campaign for safe race or relatively safe races.

[Aristus]

10. If we pull a win next Tuesday, the GOP and their wholly-owned corporate media

need to make it look like it was stolen, so they can go crazier than they usually do. This is going to be their SOP from now on; any time they lose, they are going to scream 'Fraud!' and call their heavily-armed crazies out into the streets. It will basically be Weimar Germany, only without the beer gardens and oompah bands.

[senseandsensibility]

14. I do wonder why most media is so willing to help

It's depressing.

[OAITW r.2.0]

15. I'm betting the polling does not reflect the voting actuality.

I'll further state that the results will be sending a message to the Organized Crime Party. Things are changing and we are on to you.

If I'm wrong, we (USA as we knew it) is fucked.

[Jade Fox]

30. +1

[LenaBaby61]

43. REALLY THIS 👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻

[OAITW r.2.0]

11. To get eyeballs, you need to claim it's close.

Otherwise, why watch?

Sadly, we are divided enough as a society that the case can be made that it's a horse race.

[Kaleva]

16. The best way to avoid their mind games is to not watch them

[Initech]

18. It's almost like they're cheering for a right wing government because it will be good for ratings.

[senseandsensibility]

20. Or good for their taxes?

Their owners certainly would benefit from corporate tax cuts.

[Mr.Bill]

24. Welcome to 2016

and it continues today. Their ratings went off the charts when Trump was president.

[Amishman]

40. It's for ratings, it also has a nugget of truth

We're widely expected to lose the House. That's a major loss.

Pretending things are looking great is as bad as saying we're doomed.

It's close, go vote.

[Demsrule86]

63. I don't think we will lose the house.

[Dr. Jack]

46. The election certainly isn't over but...

...I don't buy that the polls are all wrong and that there's a secret blue wave forming. We can search around the internet and find analysis and experts that will tell us whatever we want to hear about how the Republicans are totally going to underperform and all will be well. But much more time tested election analysis methods are pointing to a clear outcome: moderate gains for the GOP.

Sure, we can grasp at early voting numbers or special elections from 4 or 5 months ago, or that a massive wave of young voters will come to save us. But I've heard all of these arguments before, proof that the Dems will secretly win despite all of the evidence. And guess what, we lost those elections. Surprises do happen and maybe this year will be one of those elections but those are rare and there's little objective proof that this year is shaping up to be something other than what it seems.

I would love to be wrong but just because I don't want an election to have a certain outcome doesn't mean it won't happen anyway. In the end, this election will probably turn out more or less how it appears it will. Republicans will take the House and will have a moderately sized majority. And they will probably take the Senate too with an absolute bare minimum majority. Plus some of the ultra right wing freaks will win their gubernatorial elections but not all of them.

We can huff on our tanks of copium and look for the hidden evidence that all is great but that won't make any difference come Tuesday. Hope for the best but prepare of the worst because the worst is likely coming.

[MerryHolidays]

50. What "evidence"? Polls?

Early voting and special election victories are MUCH better predictors of success than polls.

If polls are your evidence, have you looked, for example at the A-rated Marist polls that have Ds winning the Senate seats in GA, PA, and AZ? Or are you taking aggregators like 538 and RCP that have a large amount of Republican-oriented polls that are skewing the results?

What other "evidence" do you have?

[Demsrule86]

59. There isn't any evidence...so he has none. This is close but we are likely to win some imporatant

races.

[Dr. Jack]

71. Come talk to me in 4 days and we will see who was right this evening

[MerryHolidays]

72. So you have no evidence today, then? Ok. nt

[Dr. Jack]

74. Polls arent evidence?

Neither is history?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-presidents-party-almost-always-has-a-bad-midterm/

Or analysis of early voting and election outcomes?


https://www.aei.org/articles/no-really-dont-pay-attention-to-early-voting-data/

What about the foremost expert on elections in Nevada. He says the numbers for the Democrats in his state are very concerning. A state the Dems should be doing well in. Thats not evidence?

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022


You may not like the evidence, you may not open any of the links I provided and likely won't read any of them. Go ahead and roll your eyes and dismiss anything you don't like and provide another hit and run snarky response showing you have no real interest in an actual discussion. You don't want to hear that the nightmare situation is likely upon us and that something will swoop in at the last second and save us. Be as hopeful as you like but I've seen people in so many election cycles bury their heads in the sand and refuse to look at the reality in front of them. That's the easy path to shock and heartache.

Go ahead, believe what you want. In just 3 short days, we will see if your Democratic Party savior materializes.

[MerryHolidays]

75. My, my, my: "nightmare situation?" Based on that, we really don't have anything to discuss. nt

[senseandsensibility]

51. The example I used was the Governors race in NY

There are no polls showing the Dem losing. I just saw a poll on Wasserman's twitter acct saying she is at 52 and he is at 43. There is no way that the headline about Dems chances is accurate. Yes, it's a blue state, but this is way outside the margin of error, and widening according to Wasserman. The characterization just isn't accurate.








































































































































































































































































































































































I just saw a poll on Wasserman's site with the Dem at 52 and the R at 43. Nowhere near the margin of error, and according to Wasserman, the lead is widening How can this possibly be a good sign for R's? It's not.

[Demsrule86]

58. It is not hidden...and kansas and New York 19 showed it but if forever reason you want to post doom

and gloom then go for it. I suggest though that you get out and try to make it work for us because if we lose as you describe our Republic is likely over. This is not an ordinary election.

[senseandsensibility]

60. Wow talk about a misreading of my post

I usually read a post before I blast it, but that's just me.

[Demsrule86]

62. I was responding to a different poster.

[senseandsensibility]

64. Sorry

Thank goodness I kept my reply fairly civil.

[MerryHolidays]

79. It's funny, but the doom & gloomers on this thread became very upset if you don't agree with them

It's curious.

[Demsrule86]

61. Good news. You are wrong.

[Dr. Jack]

70. I guess meet me back here on Wednesday

And we will see who's right

[Polybius]

81. No one ever comes back to apologize when they're wrong

Last year I got attacked because I said Youngkin would win in VA, and that NJ would be close. They tore me apart for those. No one said they were sorry.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

65. Every Time I Go To Yahoo News I See A "Story" About The Coming Huge Losses

Last night it was something about how Democrats were about to get "crushed" in the midterms under a "mountain of inflation."

Literally minutes ago, I saw a story about how Democrats are preparing to lose as many as 30 seats in the House and lose control of the Senate as well.

Story after story after story. I'm sick of it. And I know why they do it (wishful thinking, along with some hope that they can influence the outcome they want), but it still pisses me off, especially when you look at the actual data and see the exact opposite.

What I hope is that this constant drumbeat of "OMGZZZZ!!! Democrats are going to get SLAUGHTERED in the midterms!!!" will cause Republican voters to fall asleep at the wheel, assume this is a done deal, and just stay home.

[senseandsensibility]

67. You and me both

I feel exactly the same. The facts just don't back up their hype at all.

[budkin]

66. And according to CNN, NY Dems are bracing for...

STUNNING LOSSES! Fuck the MSM.

[senseandsensibility]

68. Ridiculous, I agree,

since it's not backed up by anything.

[Deminpenn]

69. It's the conventional wisdom that the party

in power "always loses seats" in the mid-terms.

Remember, no one tunes in to watch blowouts.

If the GOP was winning so much, they wouldn't be spending north of 70M trying to HOLD Toomey's seat in PA.

[MySideOfTown]

73. The future don't tell you.

Don't give your life away. (J.Mitchell)

[MerryHolidays]

76. Here's a very timely cross-post about all the folks here wanting to "follow the money"

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217321721

Thanks, Demsrule86, for this great and well-reasoned post.

[msfiddlestix]

77. I had to think twiee or three times before clicking. I'm familiar with your addy......

didn't compute..

just looking at the title was so depressing, at a glance it seemed to be based on the demonstrative attitude of Dem campaigns.

I'm hoping for the best, but bracing for the worst. Depending on the results, I'm not sure how I'm going to maintain my sanity. Certainly won't be tuned in any longer.

I'll have to engage through a different paradigm. Not sure what that looks like or even means at the moment.

Except I know what we've been doing, and how we've been doing it, isn't working very well.

And sometimes not at all.

eg. this fundraising thingy is also totally anathema to democracy. and the messages in my emails and texts get profoundly more insulting and offensive as we get closer to the election day.

[senseandsensibility]

80. My OP was meant to counter the media narrative

and show that it was unfair. It was meant to be encouraging. I think that a close reading of it bears that out. So, chin up!

[msfiddlestix]

82. ✔️

[MerryHolidays]

78. For all the doom and gloomers on this thread, here's another xpost with GREAT PA EV

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217321748