General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSome positive signs for us all to keep in mind:
Last edited Mon Nov 7, 2022, 11:14 PM - Edit history (2)
(edited to add things as they occur to me)
- the very encouraging early vote stats
- no evidence of a red wave so far
- Dems crushed the GQP in small donations
- Dems' enthusiasm is polling equal to the bad guys
- many new voters registered D post Dobbs
- women are much more likely to vote D and they are outvoting men bigly so far
- a not insignificant number of Republican women will flip their vote to D in light of Dobbs
- young voters reporting they will vote in big numbers on election day
- likely voter models are probably very inaccurate, in our favor
- although more people say they're concerned about inflation, inflation is not the burning motivator to vote like Dobbs is
- no Trump on the ballot this time; a lot of Republicans are loyal to Dear Leader only, not the GQP in general
- conversely, Trump wont go away, and thats motivating for Dems
- more people are understanding that democracy itself is at stake
- GQP putting most of its eggs in election day voting -- very risky for them
- numbers in past few days have moved a bit towards the Ds
- Republicans not acting like they're confident about tomorrow (e.g. all the desperate lawsuits they're filing)
- Republicans trumpeting bullshit right wing polls
NOT their internal polls (things that make you go hmmm.)
- independent polls showing a much more favorable outlook than the right wing polls like Trafalgar that the GQP has been pushing to skew averages like 538
- some pundits are finally stepping back and admitting it won't necessarily be an R blowout after all, because "anything could happen" -- trying to salvage a bit of their own credibility?
- in 2020, the Dems didn't have much of a ground game due to the pandemic (while the GQP did). This time, thousands of D volunteers are knocking on doors, canvassing, etc.
- progressive and Dem organizations seeing big participation with things like postcard writing (personally, I sent 200 to Nevada and 15 to Georgia)
- since 2020, about 8 million Gen Zers have turned 18. Sure, it will take a while for them to register and vote reliably, but they're overwhelmingly more progressive in general than the older generations, including the dwindling Silent Gen demo, which is quite conservative (yes, in general, exceptions abound, etc.)
- Several hundred thousand Trumpy anti-vaxxers have died of Covid. In the words of Jerry Seinfeld: "That's a shame."
- Dems have overperformed expectations in the last several special elections
As William Rivers Pitt would have told us: "Stout Hearts."
Lovie777
(12,227 posts)Wounded Bear
(58,626 posts)Sky Jewels
(7,054 posts)CentralMass
(15,265 posts)MerryHolidays
(7,715 posts)Like you said, I am noticing today that very few are saying the Republicans are going to win this in a blow-out. In fact, many are saying it is very close.
Fingers crossed! GOTV!
Sky Jewels
(7,054 posts)SheilaAnn
(9,691 posts)Sky Jewels
(7,054 posts)LonePirate
(13,414 posts)Dems also seem to be underperforming in Nevada; but the massive decrease in Florida suggests increases elsewhere, perhaps in MI, NC and PA. Its a very strange election this time.
Sky Jewels
(7,054 posts)But other states seem to be stepping up, so that's encouraging.
Justice
(7,185 posts)Nevada adopted a DMV automatic registration system, which took effect in January 2020.
Voters who do not select a party affiliation when updating information are automatically registered as nonpartisan, unless they opt out. So a lot of newer voters are nonpartisan rather than a party. I think early voting is doing okay, just hard to tell whether voters are going R or D.
More than 618,000 Nevadans have already cast ballots in this years midterm elections. Those numbers are approximate and as of Saturday, Nov. 5 at 2 p.m.
In 2018, approximately 554,000 Nevadans cast ballots during early voting.
Universal mail ballots used starting in 2020 - a presidential year.
https://www.nevadacurrent.com/blog/you-shouldnt-obsess-over-nvs-early-voting-numbers-but-here-are-a-few-anyway/
Justice
(7,185 posts)Democrats have a lead of about 29,000 votes in Nevadas two largest counties after the end of early voting, according to figures posted by county elections offices on Saturday.
That lead which doesnt include vote totals in Nevadas 15 smaller rural counties exceeds the nearly 21,400-vote lead the party had statewide after early voting in 2018, when Democrats won the governors mansion and all but one statewide constitutional office.
https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/democrats-lead-gop-by-29k-votes-in-clark-washoe-after-early-voting-2670809/
DownriverDem
(6,227 posts)live in Florida. When folks would say they are moving there, I would cringe. No weather would be my moving guide.
Sky Jewels
(7,054 posts)Wednesdays
(17,337 posts)"We wont win them all but will are definitely not getting wiped out as the media wants you to believe. There are more of us than there are of them, that is why they try to keep us down. Its not working. Im sure of that."
luv2fly
(2,475 posts)Thank you for this!
littlemissmartypants
(22,628 posts)Women are voting for bodily autonomy but aren't telling. It's a "secret ballot" time if there ever was one. ❤️
SheltieLover
(57,073 posts)Hole the vision of the Blue tsunami!
mahina
(17,638 posts)Thank you ❤️
Ford_Prefect
(7,875 posts)Yet I am tempered by the past experience of GOP operatives and elected officials bending the system to warp the vote their way.
I recognize as many here do that some things may not be clear for several days after.
I hope for the best. The other is unthinkable.
niyad
(113,216 posts)bucolic_frolic
(43,121 posts)You whole analysis is gold, especially the ground game. Republicans were fearless in the pandemic, you gotta give 'em that. But now they are reduced.
yellowdogintexas
(22,250 posts)that is happening here in Texas.
It is very encouraging.
I may even sleep tonight!
I have to be at the polls at 5:00 am
BlueIdaho
(13,582 posts)It can be tough to stay positive here in ruby red Idaho so thanks to you all for this encouraging post!
BTW - my early ballot has been received and validated so Im in it to win it!
onetexan
(13,033 posts)BadgerMom
(2,770 posts)All Dem, all the way.