Mon Nov 7, 2022, 07:45 PM
Sky Jewels (5,847 posts)
Some positive signs for us all to keep in mind:Last edited Mon Nov 7, 2022, 11:14 PM - Edit history (2)
(edited to add things as they occur to me)
- the very encouraging early vote stats - no evidence of a red wave so far - Dems crushed the GQP in small donations - Dems' enthusiasm is polling equal to the bad guys - many new voters registered D post Dobbs - women are much more likely to vote D and they are outvoting men bigly so far - a not insignificant number of Republican women will flip their vote to D in light of Dobbs - young voters reporting they will vote in big numbers on election day - likely voter models are probably very inaccurate, in our favor - although more people say they're concerned about inflation, inflation is not the burning motivator to vote like Dobbs is - no Trump on the ballot this time; a lot of Republicans are loyal to Dear Leader only, not the GQP in general - conversely, Trump won’t go away, and that’s motivating for Dems - more people are understanding that democracy itself is at stake - GQP putting most of its eggs in election day voting -- very risky for them - numbers in past few days have moved a bit towards the Ds - Republicans not acting like they're confident about tomorrow (e.g. all the desperate lawsuits they're filing) - Republicans trumpeting bullshit right wing polls…NOT their internal polls (things that make you go “hmmm.”) - independent polls showing a much more favorable outlook than the right wing polls like Trafalgar that the GQP has been pushing to skew averages like 538 - some pundits are finally stepping back and admitting it won't necessarily be an R blowout after all, because "anything could happen" -- trying to salvage a bit of their own credibility? - in 2020, the Dems didn't have much of a ground game due to the pandemic (while the GQP did). This time, thousands of D volunteers are knocking on doors, canvassing, etc. - progressive and Dem organizations seeing big participation with things like postcard writing (personally, I sent 200 to Nevada and 15 to Georgia) - since 2020, about 8 million Gen Zers have turned 18. Sure, it will take a while for them to register and vote reliably, but they're overwhelmingly more progressive in general than the older generations, including the dwindling Silent Gen demo, which is quite conservative (yes, in general, exceptions abound, etc.) - Several hundred thousand Trumpy anti-vaxxers have died of Covid. In the words of Jerry Seinfeld: "That's a shame." - Dems have overperformed expectations in the last several special elections As William Rivers Pitt would have told us: "Stout Hearts."
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30 replies, 4466 views
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Author | Time | Post |
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Sky Jewels | Nov 2022 | OP |
Lovie777 | Nov 2022 | #1 | |
Wounded Bear | Nov 2022 | #3 | |
Sky Jewels | Nov 2022 | #10 | |
CentralMass | Nov 2022 | #13 | |
MerryHolidays | Nov 2022 | #2 | |
Sky Jewels | Nov 2022 | #9 | |
SheilaAnn | Nov 2022 | #4 | |
Sky Jewels | Nov 2022 | #7 | |
LonePirate | Nov 2022 | #5 | |
Sky Jewels | Nov 2022 | #6 | |
Justice | Nov 2022 | #26 | |
Justice | Nov 2022 | #27 | |
DownriverDem | Nov 2022 | #30 | |
Sky Jewels | Nov 2022 | #8 | |
Wednesdays | Nov 2022 | #18 | |
Sky Jewels | Nov 2022 | #19 | |
luv2fly | Nov 2022 | #11 | |
Sky Jewels | Nov 2022 | #12 | |
littlemissmartypants | Nov 2022 | #14 | |
SheltieLover | Nov 2022 | #16 | |
mahina | Nov 2022 | #15 | |
Sky Jewels | Nov 2022 | #20 | |
Ford_Prefect | Nov 2022 | #17 | |
niyad | Nov 2022 | #21 | |
bucolic_frolic | Nov 2022 | #22 | |
yellowdogintexas | Nov 2022 | #23 | |
BlueIdaho | Nov 2022 | #24 | |
onetexan | Nov 2022 | #25 | |
BadgerMom | Nov 2022 | #28 | |
PortTack | Nov 2022 | #29 |
Response to Sky Jewels (Original post)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 07:47 PM
Lovie777 (9,933 posts)
1. damn just vote....
Response to Lovie777 (Reply #1)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 07:55 PM
Wounded Bear (57,226 posts)
3. Already did and I hope everybody does as well...nt
Response to Lovie777 (Reply #1)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 08:34 PM
Sky Jewels (5,847 posts)
10. I voted already and my immediate family did too--all blue, of course.
Response to Lovie777 (Reply #1)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 08:51 PM
CentralMass (15,154 posts)
13. My ballot was recieved on 10/31.
Response to Sky Jewels (Original post)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 07:54 PM
MerryHolidays (7,715 posts)
2. These are some excellent points
Like you said, I am noticing today that very few are saying the Republicans are going to win this in a blow-out. In fact, many are saying it is very close.
Fingers crossed! GOTV! |
Response to MerryHolidays (Reply #2)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 08:33 PM
Sky Jewels (5,847 posts)
9. Yes indeed!
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Response to Sky Jewels (Original post)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 08:06 PM
SheilaAnn (9,310 posts)
4. I need a cigarette after reading your excellent post. Thank You. n/t
Response to SheilaAnn (Reply #4)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 08:31 PM
Sky Jewels (5,847 posts)
7. Ha ha, you're welcome!
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Response to Sky Jewels (Original post)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 08:16 PM
LonePirate (13,204 posts)
5. The early vote numbers are interesting given how Dems have fallen off a cliff in Florida.
Dems also seem to be underperforming in Nevada; but the massive decrease in Florida suggests increases elsewhere, perhaps in MI, NC and PA. It’s a very strange election this time.
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Response to LonePirate (Reply #5)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 08:24 PM
Sky Jewels (5,847 posts)
6. Yeah, Florida is a lost cause for the foreseeable future, IMO.
But other states seem to be stepping up, so that's encouraging.
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Response to LonePirate (Reply #5)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 10:37 PM
Justice (7,147 posts)
26. Not sure Nevada is being tracked correctly
Nevada adopted a DMV automatic registration system, which took effect in January 2020.
Voters who do not select a party affiliation when updating information are automatically registered as nonpartisan, unless they opt out. So a lot of newer voters are nonpartisan rather than a party. I think early voting is doing okay, just hard to tell whether voters are going R or D. More than 618,000 Nevadans have already cast ballots in this year’s midterm elections. Those numbers are approximate and as of Saturday, Nov. 5 at 2 p.m. In 2018, approximately 554,000 Nevadans cast ballots during early voting. Universal mail ballots used starting in 2020 - a presidential year. https://www.nevadacurrent.com/blog/you-shouldnt-obsess-over-nvs-early-voting-numbers-but-here-are-a-few-anyway/ |
Response to LonePirate (Reply #5)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 10:39 PM
Justice (7,147 posts)
27. More encouraging news from Nevada
Democrats have a lead of about 29,000 votes in Nevada’s two largest counties after the end of early voting, according to figures posted by county elections offices on Saturday.
That lead — which doesn’t include vote totals in Nevada’s 15 smaller rural counties — exceeds the nearly 21,400-vote lead the party had statewide after early voting in 2018, when Democrats won the governor’s mansion and all but one statewide constitutional office. https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/democrats-lead-gop-by-29k-votes-in-clark-washoe-after-early-voting-2670809/ |
Response to LonePirate (Reply #5)
Tue Nov 8, 2022, 09:50 AM
DownriverDem (5,989 posts)
30. Would never
live in Florida. When folks would say they are moving there, I would cringe. No weather would be my moving guide.
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Response to Sky Jewels (Original post)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 08:32 PM
Sky Jewels (5,847 posts)
8. More good stuff here:
Response to Sky Jewels (Reply #8)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 09:20 PM
Wednesdays (16,629 posts)
18. "We will turn out, we will, once again save Democracy, I am sure of it."
"We won’t win them all but will are definitely not getting wiped out as the media wants you to believe. There are more of us than there are of them, that is why they try to keep us down. It’s not working. I’m sure of that."
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Response to Sky Jewels (Original post)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 08:38 PM
luv2fly (2,461 posts)
11. A shining star amidst much of the doom and gloom crap
Thank you for this!
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Response to Sky Jewels (Original post)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 08:58 PM
littlemissmartypants (21,182 posts)
14. I think it would be safe to add...
Women are voting for bodily autonomy but aren't telling. It's a "secret ballot" time if there ever was one. ❤️
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Response to littlemissmartypants (Reply #14)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 09:06 PM
SheltieLover (57,073 posts)
16. Yes, Pants! I saw a lot of women voting alone in rural TN on Thurs!
Hole the vision of the Blue tsunami!
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Response to Sky Jewels (Original post)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 09:00 PM
mahina (16,790 posts)
15. Oh man that's exactly what he would've said
Thank you ❤️
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Response to Sky Jewels (Original post)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 09:08 PM
Ford_Prefect (7,430 posts)
17. These are good positive notes to sound. I want to believe they represent real events tipping our way
Yet I am tempered by the past experience of GOP operatives and elected officials bending the system to warp the vote their way.
I recognize as many here do that some things may not be clear for several days after. I hope for the best. The other is unthinkable. |
Response to Sky Jewels (Original post)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 10:03 PM
niyad (105,944 posts)
21. From your keys to Goddess' ear! So mote it be!
Response to Sky Jewels (Original post)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 10:12 PM
bucolic_frolic (39,348 posts)
22. "in 2020, the Dems didn't have much of a ground game due to the pandemic (while the GQP did)."
You whole analysis is gold, especially the ground game. Republicans were fearless in the pandemic, you gotta give 'em that. But now they are reduced.
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Response to Sky Jewels (Original post)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 10:17 PM
yellowdogintexas (21,176 posts)
23. I have never seen the level of enthusiasm and activism
that is happening here in Texas.
It is very encouraging. I may even sleep tonight! I have to be at the polls at 5:00 am |
Response to Sky Jewels (Original post)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 10:23 PM
BlueIdaho (13,357 posts)
24. A BIG thank you to each and every one of you!
It can be tough to stay positive here in ruby red Idaho so thanks to you all for this encouraging post!
BTW - my early ballot has been received and validated so I’m in it to win it! |
Response to Sky Jewels (Original post)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 10:47 PM
BadgerMom (2,694 posts)
28. Voted weeks ago here in NM.
All Dem, all the way.
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Response to Sky Jewels (Original post)
Mon Nov 7, 2022, 11:13 PM
PortTack (30,771 posts)