PA State House is a toss-up

[RandySF]

Link to tweet

?s=20&t=GxZ4CgJt15mQMjn8HfIRgw

[AZSkiffyGeek]

1. His name is Chaz Nuttycombe?!?

Looks like he’s legit but that’s a hilarious name.

[BumRushDaShow]

2. Woot! I posted about this not long ago

and how the redistricting might impact the state legislature, including an apparent large number of resignations.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=17336983

How redistricting could alter control of the Pa. legislature and other changes to watch Nov. 8


By Kate Huangpu | Spotlight PA,
Stephen Caruso | Spotlight PA
Published October 31, 2022 at 1:07 PM EDT

(snip)

Democrats have a better chance in the state House

Operatives in both major parties agree that Democrats are likely to shrink Republicans’ 111-92 advantage in the state House because of the new lines.

Under the old map, 80 seats leaned Republican and 78 leaned Democratic, according to Dave’s Redistricting App. The rest were classified as competitive, with the electoral margin between the parties typically being less than 10 percentage points. Under the new map, 81 seats favor Republicans and 95 favor Democrats.
While Republicans nearly built a supermajority in the lower chamber in recent years, the new lines indicate Democrats will likely secure a larger share of the seats due (barring a major shift in voting patterns among the electorate.)

Why this dramatic shift occurred depends on who you ask. All will agree this is in part because of population shifts from the more rural west to the more suburban and urban east. Democrats — backed by independent analysts — add that the previous maps were drawn to aid Republicans. While Democrats regularly win statewide races, they haven’t had control of a legislative chamber since 2010.

Republicans counter that comparing statewide results and 253 individual races is like comparing apples and oranges, and argue that the old map was designed to protect western Pennsylvania Democrats who simply couldn’t survive the post-Trump political realignment. The GOP has acknowledged that the new lines will likely cut into their margin, but it’s still an open question whether Democrats can flip the chamber.

(snip)

https://www.wesa.fm/politics-government/2022-10-31/how-redistricting-could-alter-control-of-the-pa-legislature-and-other-changes-to-watch-nov-8

[Deminpenn]

3. Wow! That would be awesome

Of course this is why Benninghoff, R state House majority leader, was mad after the legislative redistricting commission map was approved. The map didn't disturb the state senate map much, so Kim Ward, the R state senate leader, threw Benninghoff under the bus and voted with the Ds and the commission chair, Mark Nordenberg, to approve it.

The fact is that 2/3rd of the state's population lives in Harrisburg and east. The new map undid a lot, but not all, of the gerry-mandering Rs did in the last decade plus.