Hobbs - ugh

[Wavelight]

Late dump in Maricopa really hurt her chances. We’ll know more tonight but I see it slipping away given the likely lean R of the remaining count.

It’s been a “great“ night, all things considered, but this would be a gut punch. Hoping Kelly holds on.

[imanamerican63]

1. She is out performing Biden from 2020.

Hopefully she can hang on, but Lake will contest the results no doubt!

[videohead5]

2. It was going to be close

Biden won the state by only around 12,000 votes.

[Polybius]

3. What's the NY Times win probability?

Anyone have a link?

[Celerity]

4. Win or lose, her failure to debate was a real blunder. To debunk and expose Lake as a liar/nutter

would have not been hard. I have seen dozens (literally) of politicians and pundits explain (effectively) how she could have attacked Lake during a debate. Instead she ceded the field to Lake's bullshit messaging, and it shows in the spread between the AZ US Senate and the AZ Governor results.

Fetterman, with FAR more to lose (due to his obvious after-effects of his stroke), stepped up big time and debated the POS Oz.

Bad move to not take on and confront fucking fascist monsters like the uber dangerous Lake.

I SO hope Hobbs pulls this out.

If the late arriving (and not yet reported) AZ mail-in/drop-box ballots (especially, crucially, in Maricopa) are like 2020 (big Rethug slant), Hobbs will probably lose and Kelly will likely have a crazy close race.

If they are ike 2018 (big Dem slant), both Dems should win.

[Sympthsical]

5. This is the one race I really, really want to be wrong on

It's the only one I have been wrong on so far - I thought Lake would win by a few.

I went to bed with Hobbs up by 11 with 55% thinking I was way off about Arizona.

Now, who knows.

Why is Arizona taking so long?

[DarthDem]

6. You have no idea what's in the remaining count

Do you? Stay positive.