Georgia: Since Warnock did not reach 50%, does that force a runoff?

[TheBlackAdder]

.

If so, what would a runoff voter turnout look like?

.

[hlthe2b]

1. Dec 6th.... IF Warnock does not squeak it out and at 49.42% with 95% vote counted, he still COULD

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. It looks like he will running against Walker mano a mano in December.

He's much closer to the post though.

[albacore]

43. Mano-a-mano?

How about: An erudite preacher with a clean record and a PhD vs. an inarticulate baby-momma champion and CTE?

Nothing against Walker personally, but it is cruel and cynical of the trumpublicans to even put his name into nomination for any public office, let alone the Senate.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. They're both men.

[Johnny2X2X]

3. It will

And Warnock will be a big favorite in a runoff.

[honest.abe]

7. Why would Warnock be the big favorite?

I know Walker is a clueless fool but this runoff will likely be for control of the Senate. It will be a shit show with tons of money and political influence thrown as this election. Who knows what could happen.

[Johnny2X2X]

11. Warnock is a point ahead, the 3rd party is Libertarian, those people will stay home

Warnock just has to GOTV and he wins easily.

[honest.abe]

17. Ok that's sounds reasonable.

Im just a bit nervous about it.

[albacore]

45. I think of Libertarians as Republicans who have developed greed to a professional level.

I think they'll vote.

[exboyfil]

14. And we probably won't have Trump to upset the apple cart like 2020

Warnock very well could lose that run off especially given the fact that every statewide office is in the hands of the Republicans.

It is looking like at best we return to the status quo in the Senate with Manchin/Sinema as kingmakers and poor Harris wearing out her posterior breaking ties.

At the very least could we get the filibuster rule changed to actually require an opposing Senator stay in the well speaking.

[lark]

4. Hoping Warnock manages to squeak through with 50.1%

That would be so awesome!

[Samrob]

29. He may eek it out. I believe the votes to come will favor Warnock about 2-1. nt

[lark]

30. Hoping you are right!!

[Claustrum]

5. Yes. I think the runoff will be in 4 weeks.

As far as turnout, it kind of depends on the other senate races. If we have a repeat of 2020 where the majority depends on GA, you can expect high turnout for both sides. If we already hold the senate, I could see some republicans who held their noses for Walker due to the senate stay home.

[Sympthsical]

6. It'll be a runoff

And then it will be a question of which party fights hardest for it.

Can we count on Trump to screw it up this time, too? Or will he think his political fate somehow hinges on it this time? It would be close and risky, and Trump is risk averse. He wants guaranteed wins and Walker ain't that. A Walker loss if he puts his imprimatur on it would be another blow after last night.

It'll be interesting to see how Republicans react to a runoff.

[gab13by13]

8. There is no doubt in my mind how Magats will act.

Domestic oligarchs are going to pour millions of dollars for Walker, just like they unsuccessfully did for Oz.

Tax breaks for corporations are set to expire, I believe.

[Sympthsical]

18. God save Georgians from the politcal ad fest that is coming

But Trump threw away the Georgia runoffs pretty hard last time. His base didn't bother, because he didn't bother.

Just wondering if that will be the case, or if the people who sat out in tantrum last time will feel more motivated this time.

[Chipper Chat]

9. I just want to find ......11000 touchdowns....

Which is 11000 more than I made when I was playing college football......

[Sympthsical]

13. LOL!

That took me a sec, but well-played.

[Chipper Chat]

10. Hello Brad...I just want to find ......11000 touchdowns....

Which is 11000 more than I made when I was playing college football......

[Effete Snob]

16. Look at the numbers

People voted for Kemp for governor and Warnock for Senate.

Trump already got burned in the last set of Georgia runoffs.

[Sympthsical]

20. Didn't Trump piss those away, though?

I know it was only two years ago so my memory should be better. But my recollection is Trump was very, "Well, I didn't get it, so I don't care," and then his hard cores stayed home.

The whole thing's going to be about motivation, but I have no read on GOP motivation at the moment.

[Effete Snob]

24. It was even worse than that

Because he kept going on about how the Georgia elections were "rigged", it discouraged his own base from voting.

And, let's remember who was on the other end of "I just need 11,000 votes" - it was Kemp, who was re-elected last night despite the fact that Trump hates him and backed Perdue in the primary against him this year. Perdue, of course, was the other loser in the 2020 GA Sen. runoff.

[Effete Snob]

12. Yes, as you may recall, that's what happened last time

Think about how crazy this is.

A Georgia Senate seat opened up for a special election.

Warnock ran in the special election, but did not cross 50%. So he was in a runoff with Loeffler. You might recall the Georgia senate election going on while Trumpers were trying to figure out who won the 2020 election.

He won the runoff and assumed office in January 2021.

The usual term for the seat is expiring, so now he has run for election, but has not crossed 50%.

So, he will have to win a runoff.

To hold that Senate seat for more than one year, his supporters have to vote for him FOUR times.

The runoff voters will look like they did last time.

The Libertarian candidate got 1.9% and was probably a lot of R voters who could not hold their nose hard enough to vote for Walker. While you might think they would break for Walker, I think they'll stay home.

Obviously, a lot more voters came out to vote for Kemp against Abrams. They don't have a reason to go vote.

Look at the overall results - there are a lot of people who voted for Kemp for governor and Warnock for Senate. Those people are going to decide the runoff.

[FM123]

15. Yes.

Last time in the run off, the Libertarian voters gave their votes to Warnock - no reason that wouldn't happen again. Add that to our Dem votes and he will come out ahead.

[Vinca]

19. I still think he could get to 50%. The vote is still trickling in.

[DarthDem]

21. He's Going to Get Over 50%.

[TheBlackAdder]

22. If AZ, NV & GA pull this through, I hope that negates Sinema. Manchin is still at large though.

[triron]

28. Kelly won in Arizona.

[DarthDem]

37. Not yet, but it looks assured.

[honest.abe]

23. I would love to believe that.

Can you explain why you think so.

[Effete Snob]

31. Not based on any actual analysis

It's just hope expressed as a prediction.

Warnock leads by 30k or so votes. He will have to increase that lead to over 50k by somehow inspiring abnormal results among the uncounted ballots in counties where Walker is already leading, and where it doesn't look there are enough total votes to go around.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-georgia-us-senate.html

[DarthDem]

36. LOL

Just like it says on the tin! The second part, anyway.

[DarthDem]

35. I did the same calculations you did below.

I disagree that it won't happen, though.

[honest.abe]

38. My calcs might be off a bit but I would say he would need at least 2/3 of the remaining votes.

Do you think that is possible?

[DarthDem]

39. I think so

I got closer to 60%, actually.

But the key is those Atlanta and Savannah votes and the nature of them. If they're from even more Democratic precincts than what has come in so far, then I do think he can do it. I haven't seen much analysis of absentees, etc.

[triron]

25. You have any idea of how many ballots outstanding?

Or from what county?

[honest.abe]

34. According to NBC estimates 153,493 votes are left.

If that is accurate Warnock would need about 75% of that remaining vote to get over 50%... based on my back of envelope calculations.

I dont think that is going to happen.

[triron]

40. From Atlanta area?

[honest.abe]

41. I dont know. That's just the total number votes remaining on the NBC election website.

I think I did hear there were outstanding votes in both Atlanta and Savanah area.

[Different Drummer]

42. With 98 percent counted...

Warnock has 49.4% and Walker has 48.5%. This is per the website of the Atlanta CBS affiliate. Looking at their map, it doesn't appear that any of the counties are still out, but votes in some of the counties are still being counted.

[jcgoldie]

26. the silver lining

Even if he fails to hit 50 and there is a runoff which appears likely, you have to like his chances. Walker underperformed Kemp by 5 points. That shows an enthusiasm gap because hes an exceptionally poor candidate. So how many of those republicans who held their nose and voted for him because they hate democrats will make a separate trip to the polls in a month to support such a poor candidate?

[Hortensis]

27. I hope everyone Libertarian Schmuck

Chase Oliver knows hates him and lets him know.

To paraphrase someone, I am sick to death of being sick to death of dysfunctional third-party egoists whose intention for remaining in GEs is to spoil. Revenge on an electorate that doesn’t share their opinions of themselves.

Not to sound unpatriotic or anything, I am also sick to death of calling voters. Wish I could hit him. Still hoping to run into Joe Lieberman’s rotting-apple son too, but he’s apparently still hiding from his fellow Georgians, left and right, after 2020.

[Zambero]

32. If recent history is any indication

In the 2020 general election for U.S. Senator, incumbent Perdue (R) received 49.7% to Ossoff (D) 47.9%, a near 2% gap in favor of the GOP candidate. Since neither candidate received 50% of the vote, the contest advanced to a runoff election, held in January of 2021. With a bit of help from Trump, Ossoff flipped things around and won the runoff election. Oh, and Warnock also won the other Georgia Senate runoff election that day as well, beating Kelly Loeffler. Again, Trump couldn't help himself and helped deal the GOP a double-defeat and losing control of the Senate. Trump is still out there, and still spouting insane crap. His very bad hand-picked candidates and the spectacle of his whacko rallies turn off more swing voters than otherwise. And if TFG somehow manages to lay low, that would likely suppress the MAGA vote. So at this point, I see Warnock occupying the catbird seat!

[ProudMNDemocrat]

33. The Big Democrat guns will be campaigning in Georgia.

Pres. Biden , Barack and Michelle Obama, Bill and Hilary Clinton, Stacey Abrams, Jon Ossoff. All will be making the case for their Brother, Raphael Warnock.

We need to send to him ehst change we have left. It may not be much, but it will add up.