The 'Red Wave' Media Hoax

[bigtree]

Wesley @WesleyLowery 9h
striking how disconnected the dominant political media narrative of this election cycle - a red wave driven by inflation, “defend democracy” not being a mobilizing message, and voter fear of rising crime and defund the police demogauging - seems to have been from reality

b-boy bouiebaisse @jbouie 49m
probably not going to happen but seems like political press should devote some of that “are democrats hopelessly out of touch” energy to a republican party that still struggles to build anything like a national majority for its program

Soledad O'Brien @soledadobrien 2h
Somebody remind me again—by name—which journalists told us that Biden’s lack of popularity—and a focus on Dobbs and Democracy—would sink the Dems. Obviously everyone on Fox News. Who else got it exactly wrong? Name them since we know they’ll do little or no self analysis.

David Rothschild 🌻 @DavMicRot 6m
Mainstream media desperately wanted the election to be about inflation & crime, but it was more about abortion & democracy: What voters understand despite mainstream media's narrative is that elections directly affect access to abortion & continuation of democracy

Link to tweet

shauna @goldengateblond 10h
and I couldn't help but wonder ... maybe the media narratives about the election have been completely fucking wrong all along





...lol, Trump's people this morning on FOX:

The Hill @thehill 31m
Fox News commentator describes midterms as "searing indictment" for GOP

Conservatives point finger at Trump after GOP’s underwhelming election results: 'He's never been weaker' (actual article)
Many conservatives say Tuesday's election results show it's 'time to move on' from Trump

[SheltieLover]

1. They should try reporting the TRUTH, not what corp advertisers script.

Facts are a great thing!

[LakeArenal]

5. Good morning... what a slog.

Being from WI I’m bummed my state kept a Russian agent people hater.

[SheltieLover]

11. Gm!

Well, that's only 1 for WI.

Could be worse...

Here in red hellhole TN, Lee & Kustoff both won by margins of 75%-25%.

The stupidity is incomprehensible.

[LakeArenal]

17. It was quite a fight. And still to come!

[SheltieLover]

19. Oh, the shit is gonna hit the fan over House control for sure.

Shame on those who voted for qpukes!

Dems will prevail when the dusr settles.

[LakeArenal]

20. Gotta keep the faith. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

[SheltieLover]

23. Absolutely! Dems will prevail when the dust settles.

[tanyev]

2. Also media laziness.

Just because something happens frequently doesn't mean it's guaranteed to ALWAYS happen.

[Me.]

10. And Yet Here On DU

There was a thread about a conversation with Carville that suggested Blue State Liberal laziness was the problem.

[SheltieLover]

21. Imo, it is not laziness. It is media spewing corp advertisers' messaging.

[uponit7771]

47. +1,

[Efilroft Sul]

3. It was a combined gaslighting and voter demotivation operation.

[GopherGal]

13. Throw in the media trying to wishfully manifest a "horse race"

since that's what they love to report on.

[Efilroft Sul]

16. Yes, it's journalistic malpractice.

But I harbor no illusions about our media. News outlets are owned by deep pockets and major corporations that want the Republicans to win. Their pretty little newsreaders who earn at least six figures hobnob with folks who are not at all like us and they want the same kind of tax breaks as the Republicans they suck up to for exclusive access.

[GopherGal]

25. Not journalism. Maybe infotainment

Their pretty little newsreaders who earn at least six figures hobnob with folks who are not at all like us

b-b-but every year or two they expense a trip to a flyover state to interview people in rural diners to get another perspective. Okay, probably just one rural diner per trip, but certainly people who can spend their morning/afternoon in a diner on a weekday fully represent all our perspectives...

[SheltieLover]

22. Absofuckingloutely!

[BootinUp]

4. I want to give Putin some credit too. And all his authoritarian minded pals. nt

[FakeNoose]

18. Actually Putin is busy with other stuff these days

I don't think he cares much. He'll perk up when Chump announces he's running again, but that's about it.

[TheBlackAdder]

6. I think it backfired by scaring the Gen-X, Gen-Y & Gen-Zers into voting.

[honest.abe]

7. This narrative likely demoralized many Democrats and then didnt show up to vote.

Damn shame. I suspect we would have had full control of both House and Senate without this "red wave" crap.

[inthewind21]

40. If all it takes

Is media to cause voters to not show up and vote, well that speaks more about the voter than the media. When you allow others to make your decisions for you, don't be surprised when it turns out they are decisions not in your best interest.

[honest.abe]

42. Totally agree but there are many types of voters in this country and many motivations.

Its a reality of politics.

[50 Shades Of Blue]

8. Repugs haven't lost the House yet.

[bigtree]

12. there was no red wave'

...and I'm watching the same news that you presumably are.

[50 Shades Of Blue]

14. There may as well have been if Dems lose the House.

[bigtree]

24. tell that to the districts and states which avoided republican representation

...the lack of a 'red wave' means that, as of this morning, Democrats still have a good shot at keeping the House.

The way we reinforce the 'Dems suck, Dems doomed' messaging is to ignore the gains we make, and inflate false notions of republican political strength while wallowing in cynicism, fear, and apathy.

There was no red wave, because Democrats from the WH to the streets rallied voters to overcome historic trends where the party out of power makes significant gains. Even where we stand today, Democrats have held back an unprecedented din of months and months of being told republicans would wash over us.

It hasn't happened, and that should be acknowledged if we're to do more than just accept the loser narrative we've been subjected to all year..

[50 Shades Of Blue]

26. And if Dems don't keep both houses, we are as screwed as if there was a red wave.

[bigtree]

27. but let's not ignore forecasts like 538's which had Dems losing by as many as 25 seats

...and maybe give a thought that Dem momentum could put us over the top.

No one, but NO one needs the cynicism, and winning the House by a seat, or maybe two, whatever party, isn't a 'wave' election.

Link to tweet

[ProfessorGAC]

30. Do Not Agree

A failure to take a dominant position in the House frees up saner Rs to quit fearing the "base" and act like actual legislators.
Not saying it will happen for sure, but with the results showing that crazy isn't a big selling point & extremism less productive than advertised, it only takes a few defectors to derail the plans of their "leadership".

[50 Shades Of Blue]

32. What "saner" Republicans would that be?

Yeah, we saw exactly how cooperative Repugs were during the last 2 years of Obama's administration.

[ProfessorGAC]

36. Whoosh!

No further comment needed.

[yardwork]

33. Agreed. It's bad if we lose the majority, but not nearly as bad as it could be.

I sense that many people are sick of Trump and the Q MAGAT nonsense. They really are worried about inflation, and loss of abortion rights, and all the rest - and they want grown-ups in charge.

I don't know for sure, but I suspect that suburban voters didn't break for the Republicans as expected. They're tired of the crazy. It's not funny anymore.

[50 Shades Of Blue]

35. If they win the House, Repugs will have 2 years to make Biden and his admin.'s lives HELL

and that is exactly what they will do. They have already said they will impeach Biden and they won't stop there. They don't give the teeniest tiniest shit about governing. They have shown that over and over again.

It's mind boggling to me that anyone here needs to be reminded how utterly toxic and destructive Republicans are, and that they will be out for blood if they take over the House - Biden's blood, Garland's blood, and the J6C members' blood, for starters. They haven't made any secret of it. They will try to do their absolute worst because that is what they always do and that is the ONLY thing they wanted to get elected to do!

[inthewind21]

41. No one

here needs to be reminded of anything. So what do you suggest, should we all ball up cease to function today? I mean look how well that's worked in the past.

[50 Shades Of Blue]

43. I don't suggest anybody do anything! I just don't get gloating over Repugs not winning bigger

than they have so far when the House/Senate outcomes are still uncertain and Dems could still end up getting royally screwed.

[bigtree]

45. is anyone questioning that?

...I've lived through several Dem presidencies with just one House.

Nothing in our democratic system of governance is a zero-sum enterprise.

[peggysue2]

38. Hear, Hear!

For Dems stuck in red states, I feel your pain. It's only been recently that I moved back to the realm of sanity, moved back to Pennsylvania where I knew we had an excellent shot to elect strong Dem candidates.

As I said in an earlier thread, we did not get everything we wanted or hoped for, but for a party that was left for dead, considered roadkill just a few months ago, a party that was showered with nay-saying headlines and predictions and polls, we have so far held the line for democracy and for the future. We've put a genuine dent in the Trumpist armor, the arrogance, the callous disregard.

We came out, we voted, we matched our voice to the prevailing wind and in many places were successful.

We should be proud of that. I know I am.

[multigraincracker]

9. Michael Moore, The most trusted

person on tv.

[bigtree]

15. lol

[ShazzieB]

28. "Never underestimate how much Team Biden is underestimated."

⬆️☝⬆️☝⬆️☝⬆️THIS!!!!!⬆️👆⬆️👆⬆️👆⬆️

[andym]

29. Biden's release of oil from the national reserve helped!

I think the most important factor is that gasoline prices have been on the decline the last two weeks, which helped offset the idea the country is moving in the wrong direction.

[ProfessorGAC]

31. Not Here

Gas prices went up 8% in the last 10 days before the election in most of the Midwest. Awfully odd because of how many refineries are here.
But, falling gas prices influenced nothing in Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana (at least northern) and most of Iowa & MInnesota.
Either that or it had a. Inverse effect.

[andym]

39. From AAA, there have been big price reductions over the last month, and mixed action over last week

Here's the data I have from AAA for the states you mention:
https://gasprices.aaa.com/
Basically the weekly trend was up worst in WI and IN, which probably hurt Barnes in WI. Monthly trend was down. Looks like the oil release effect peaked more than a week ago-- too bad.

yesterday Week ago Month ago Month change Week change
National: $3.80 $3.77 $3.91 -2.71% 1.04%
Illinois $4.29 $4.21 $4.41 -2.57% 1.85%
Indiana $4.16 $3.93 $4.20 -1.14% 5.89% -- only state with large weekly increase
Iowa $3.54 $3.53 $3.71 -4.55% 0.25%
Minnesota $3.61 $3.60 $3.79 -4.85% 0.22%
Wisconsin $3.81 $3.64 $4.00 -4.68% 4.61%

By comparison
California $5.45 $5.52 $6.34 -13.94% -1.14% --weekly decrease

[ProfessorGAC]

44. We Saw A Steady Decline...

...for a couple months. From around $5.40 to $4.20
Then it shot back up 40 cents.
Then it declined again for a couple weeks to $3.70 something, then went back.up 40 cents.
It went down 4 cents yesterday.
It's around $4.10 today.

[Xolodno]

34. I think a lot has to do with miss-reading polls and being lazy.

Biden's approval numbers down. People concerned about inflation and Crime. And Voila! It's a "red wave".


But they under weighted the polls about abortion, Trump, etc. Nor did they have any ideas about how to stop inflation, crime, student loans, etc. It was just get us in and then will do something, just like we wanted to repeal the ACA but have no plan to replace it. So they basically just ran on nothing.


Similar to California when the polls said the majority didn't like the lockdown during Covid, Republicans thought they could pull a Re-call on that issue. Sure everyone didn't like it, but knew it was necessary.

[senseandsensibility]

46. Good analogy.

The public is not dumb.

[RobinA]

37. While There Was No

red wave, and I'm extremely happy about that, I don't think we should start acting like we smothered them. These races are very close. Many of them - Loon vs. Democrat. The Loons won some, the Democrats won some, most were very close. This is in an election where many candidates pretend a delusion is true (2020), Roe got overturned, the supposed leader of one party is being investigated up the wazoo, one side announced Medicare/SS cuts...

Let's not buy hotel rooms at the Super Bowl because we just beat the worst team in the league. We should be enjoying the moment for what it is, but still talking about what we need to do to beat a better team.