So the Senate comes down to

[prodigitalson]

who can win two of the of the 3 left up for grabs (NV, AZ and GA). If nobody wins both NV AND AZ it will come down to the GA runoff.

Do I have this right?

[MLAA]

1. I think you do.

This Arizonan is feeling very good about Kelly. He has a 5pt lead with approx 200,000 votes left, 87% of which are in 2 blue large counties (Phx area and Tuc area). The Governors race is much closer.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

3. Me too

And I think Warnock wins the run-off. Cortez-Masto, I reserve judgement until today's vote drop there.

[MLAA]

6. I just looked at our standing votes in AZ and updated my above post.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

9. Just had a small pro-Hobbs/Kelly drop from Santa Cruz county

Southern border county, mostly Latino and blue.

[MLAA]

11. Excellent!

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

8. Maricopa County, where Phoenix is,

is hardly blue. Pima County, Tucson, is quite blue, but with a significantly smaller population than Maricopa County. Just over 1 million, compared to 4.47 million.

Maricopa County is why Arizona got Barry Goldwater and later, John McCain.

[MLAA]

10. I should have been clearer, in this election Maricopa County votes counted thus far:

53% for Kelly and 45% for Masters.

[leftieNanner]

2. Yep

Scary - but doable.

[Beetwasher.]

4. We Will Run The Table

I like those odds.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

5. Yes, if neither Dems nor GOP secure both NV and AZ

It will be 49 Dems 50 GOP.

Warnock will have to win the runoff in that case for Dems to have control.

Happily, he's winning the general ... and the Libertarian Candidate who's sucked away over 2% of the votes ... has policies most liberals will agree with, not so many goppers. Also Warnock won in almost that same situation last time (2020), after having TRAILED going into the runoff. This time he's going in ahead. And as an incumbent. And his opponent is a dipshit.

[emulatorloo]

7. Yes you do have it right. I am feeling positive about NV and AZ.