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Gordolfon

(75 posts)
Wed Nov 9, 2022, 04:09 PM Nov 2022

Trafalgar had Whitmer losing by 1%. She's won and is up by 10% with 95% counted

And that's just one of the many horrible forecasts that Trafalgar (A-, Nate Silver) made.
He was the only pollster showing the New Mexico Governor race going to the Republican (Ronchetti). The Democrat Lujan Grisham won and is up by 6% with 95% of votes counted.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/mi/michigan_governor_dixon_vs_whitmer-7545.html

17 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies

Indykatie

(3,868 posts)
1. Any Pollster That Won't Release Cross Tabs Should NOT Be Included in Any Site's Averages
Wed Nov 9, 2022, 04:14 PM
Nov 2022

I've been trying to get the word out about Trafalgar and Real Clear Politics (RCP) all year. The Media likes both these shitty outfits because they can be counted on to give them a "horse race" whether one exists or not. I hope they learned their lesson.

comradebillyboy

(10,947 posts)
8. He drowned in the sea of bogus republican polls that spewed out in
Wed Nov 9, 2022, 04:31 PM
Nov 2022

the last month's right wing disinformation campaign.

Cha

(317,750 posts)
17. TY! Coincidently I was thinking about
Wed Nov 9, 2022, 05:50 PM
Nov 2022

those "polls" while I was out running..

From what I've read magats set themselves UP for a red Mirage by Flooding the Air Waves with "red wave" FAKE Polls .

I say BACKFIRE!!

Nate Silver should be smarter than magats.

iemanja

(57,630 posts)
3. 1% is statistically insignificant
Wed Nov 9, 2022, 04:21 PM
Nov 2022

Polling results need to be twice the margin of error to be statistically significant.
People were anxious over polls that said nothing.

catbyte

(38,846 posts)
4. Yeah, RCP really bit the green weenie in this race. They predicted a GQP win. Whitmer is up by 11%
Wed Nov 9, 2022, 04:21 PM
Nov 2022

with 98% of the vote in.

sunonmars

(8,657 posts)
5. Trafalgar knew exactly what they were doing or paid to do this cycle....
Wed Nov 9, 2022, 04:23 PM
Nov 2022

Flood the zone with GOP biased polls.

They wanted to push a narrative.

gratuitous

(82,849 posts)
6. We make a mistake by presuming good faith
Wed Nov 9, 2022, 04:24 PM
Nov 2022

In the before times, polling outfits wanted more than anything to Get It Right. That meant more business down the line from news outlets and candidates who wanted an accurate picture of how the election was progressing.

But now there are so many polling outfits, outfits that come and go in one election cycle, that it's practically impossible for the average voter to evaluate what any poll means. Is it accurate? What's the sample size? Margin of error? Demographic profile? And just by asking these questions, a voter has to be a fairly sophisticated consumer of news. But the polling outfits aren't volunteering a lot of information beyond the bottom-line horse race narrative. Certainly the media outlets are less concerned about a poll's veracity than whether it fits the narrative they're trying to write.

We heard several meta-stories this time around about conservative polling outfits flooding the zone with crap polls designed to discourage Democratic voters. But the direct reporting of those poll results often didn't include an analysis of the methodology used and whether the poll was likely to be accurate.

The crap polling outfits don't care about being wrong, they're not going to be around for the next election anyway. They'll be replaced by new crap polling outfits.

Quixote1818

(31,147 posts)
11. Trafalgar got lucky a few times in the past when the MAGA vote was underestimated but
Wed Nov 9, 2022, 04:49 PM
Nov 2022

that isn't happening anymore so their record has turned to shit.

 

honest.abe

(9,238 posts)
12. I have always suspected Trafalgar was a scam polling outfit.
Wed Nov 9, 2022, 04:51 PM
Nov 2022

They got a few right years ago when others missed it. I guess that's why Silver gave them an A- rating.

I dont trust them at all.

 

Sky Jewels

(9,148 posts)
13. Trafalgar polls don't hold water--unlike the Franco-Spanish ships that Lord Nelson's navy sank.
Wed Nov 9, 2022, 05:00 PM
Nov 2022

(That one was for the history buffs.)

W_HAMILTON

(10,242 posts)
16. All those Republican propaganda polling outfits have been exposed.
Wed Nov 9, 2022, 05:33 PM
Nov 2022

And, to think, we had some Democrats around these parts pushing them as hard as they could in the days and weeks leading up to the election.

I wonder if they learned their lesson?

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