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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrafalgar had Whitmer losing by 1%. She's won and is up by 10% with 95% counted
And that's just one of the many horrible forecasts that Trafalgar (A-, Nate Silver) made.
He was the only pollster showing the New Mexico Governor race going to the Republican (Ronchetti). The Democrat Lujan Grisham won and is up by 6% with 95% of votes counted.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/mi/michigan_governor_dixon_vs_whitmer-7545.html
Indykatie
(3,868 posts)I've been trying to get the word out about Trafalgar and Real Clear Politics (RCP) all year. The Media likes both these shitty outfits because they can be counted on to give them a "horse race" whether one exists or not. I hope they learned their lesson.
Cha
(317,750 posts)comradebillyboy
(10,947 posts)the last month's right wing disinformation campaign.
Cha
(317,750 posts)those "polls" while I was out running..
From what I've read magats set themselves UP for a red Mirage by Flooding the Air Waves with "red wave" FAKE Polls .
I say BACKFIRE!!
Nate Silver should be smarter than magats.
iemanja
(57,630 posts)Polling results need to be twice the margin of error to be statistically significant.
People were anxious over polls that said nothing.
Gordolfon
(75 posts)?
iemanja
(57,630 posts)and he weighted them accordingly.
catbyte
(38,846 posts)with 98% of the vote in.
sunonmars
(8,657 posts)Flood the zone with GOP biased polls.
They wanted to push a narrative.
gratuitous
(82,849 posts)In the before times, polling outfits wanted more than anything to Get It Right. That meant more business down the line from news outlets and candidates who wanted an accurate picture of how the election was progressing.
But now there are so many polling outfits, outfits that come and go in one election cycle, that it's practically impossible for the average voter to evaluate what any poll means. Is it accurate? What's the sample size? Margin of error? Demographic profile? And just by asking these questions, a voter has to be a fairly sophisticated consumer of news. But the polling outfits aren't volunteering a lot of information beyond the bottom-line horse race narrative. Certainly the media outlets are less concerned about a poll's veracity than whether it fits the narrative they're trying to write.
We heard several meta-stories this time around about conservative polling outfits flooding the zone with crap polls designed to discourage Democratic voters. But the direct reporting of those poll results often didn't include an analysis of the methodology used and whether the poll was likely to be accurate.
The crap polling outfits don't care about being wrong, they're not going to be around for the next election anyway. They'll be replaced by new crap polling outfits.
iemanja
(57,630 posts)an 85% chance of winning.
Meadowoak
(6,606 posts)WarGamer
(18,338 posts)The more you pay, the more happy you'll be.
Quixote1818
(31,147 posts)that isn't happening anymore so their record has turned to shit.
honest.abe
(9,238 posts)They got a few right years ago when others missed it. I guess that's why Silver gave them an A- rating.
I dont trust them at all.
Sky Jewels
(9,148 posts)(That one was for the history buffs.)
W_HAMILTON
(10,242 posts)And, to think, we had some Democrats around these parts pushing them as hard as they could in the days and weeks leading up to the election.
I wonder if they learned their lesson?
