does it look good for dems winning the AZ and NV senate races?

[Plectranthus]

AZ and NV have 67% and 77% reporting, respectively

[Polybius]

1. The NY Times win probability needle has us winning both

55% chance for NV, 66% chance for AZ.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-needle-forecast.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc&region=NavBar

[W_HAMILTON]

4. And, if it's any consolation to people...

...those NYT estimates were usually very BEARISH on our chances throughout the night in various races (I was following several). Of the important races I was following -- and there were many, I probably had about eight or nine open tabs at one point -- almost all of them were predicting the Democrat to do worse than they ended up doing. So, if NYT is predicting us to win those, that's a good sign at this point.

[W_HAMILTON]

2. Yes.

It will be close, especially in NV, but based on the news of what votes are still outstanding etc., I haven't seen any news to indicate that we are headed for a loss in either race. I would say we are in a good position in both, but obviously that could change as the news changes (e.g., how many dropped off ballots in Clark County, NV are there?). I haven't seen news that has me worrying about either race just yet.

[onetexan]

5. i have a good feeling about all 3 senate seats that Dems w pull it off. We will get to 51

[W_HAMILTON]

7. If we put in the work, I think we will win that runoff in GA as well.

As McCaskill pointed out last night, Georgians didn't want to vote for Walker; some voted for the Libertarian, some left the race blank, etc. In a runoff, odds are you aren't going to see those types turn out for Walker, ESPECIALLY if Senate control is already off the table. So, we just need to be sure not to be complacent, work on our GOTV efforts like we did the last time we were in this runoff position, and push our advantage and elect this very good man and very good Democrat, Raphael Warnock, to six more years in the Senate!

[onetexan]

8. yes, all the pundits on msnbc have been saying Warnock w win if the race goes to runoff

[TheFarseer]

9. Are all the pundits on Fox saying Walker will win?

Sorry, I had to, but seriously, everything I’ve heard has been positive. For example, rural turnout is down in a runoff.

[onetexan]

17. who gives a crap about Faux News? never watched them and don't care for the lies & RW propaganda

[Blaukraut]

12. On the flipside, if Senate control hinges on Georgia runoff again

Democrats will be equally, if not more, motivated to come out and vote in the runoff.

[onetexan]

18. exactly. Dems at 48 senate seats now. With Kelly & CCM we'll be at 50 so Warnock w be our +1

which w make it a little easier to get things done since it w counter manchin/sinema. 2 was what MoJoe asked for but 1 is doable.

[paleotn]

3. Kelly will pull it out.

He's leading significantly. Not over, but looks good.

[budkin]

6. Yes n/t

[Hugh_Lebowski]

10. AZ more so, much bigger lead than NV

Should have some significant numbers come in from AZ tonight, as the state reports in tranches, usually in the evening (local time).

NV I think is leaning R but not convincingly.

[DarthDem]

11. Yes

JMHO on both but AZ is a virtual lock. Based on the outstanding ballots, NV looks excellent, as in 90-95% probability.

[Polybius]

15. Looks like Clark County still has 20% to go

How many ballots of that 20% are there? It's the only Blue county remaining, according to the NYT at least.

Scroll down to where it says "Where votes have been reported and where votes remain," and hover your mouse over the map.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-nevada-us-senate.html

[awesomerwb1]

13. Not sure about NV. May end up being another heartbreaker.

[SunImp]

16. Yeah, I think this purple state will turn red unfortunately

Sisolak will probably lose to Lombardo because he shut down the strip(he did the right thing IMHO) which hurt our economy & he is involved in a few scandals like this one https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/nevada/articles/2022-11-04/ex-nevada-prisons-chief-gov-wanted-escape-reports-changed
I'm holding out hope that Laxalt & Marchant won't get elected, but those races aren't going well either

[onetexan]

19. even if Sisolak loses the governorship it doesn't mean the state has turned red

CCM w hold her position, i'm confident of it given the # votes still to be counted as reported.

[wryter2000]

14. Lots of people are saying Kelly is safe

The last I heard, Ralston still felt Cortez Masto would win.

I made calls for GA for the runoffs in 2021. I think it's going to be even better for Warnock this time. Last time Warnock was behind the Republican at the end of the first voting. This time he almost won straight out.

People in GA were very eager to vote for the two Dems in the runoff. I think they'll be even more motivated this time. I predict, with no real certainty, that we end up with 51 Senate seats. And lots of McConnell tears.

[onetexan]

20. HEAR HEAR!! i have no doubt Stacy Adams' amazing team w work even harder to GOTV for the runoff

and put Warnock over again. We've been here before and everything is at stake. He has to win.