Nevada Senate Election Updated at 83% reporting 436,854 - 421,042 n/m

[Donkees]

[we can do it]

1. ?

[yardwork]

2. I know, right?!

[ColinC]

3. Laxalt now leads by 15k instead of 22k now.

I think we are getting more and more certain of who will control the Senate.

[NBachers]

4. For those who would appreciate an actual link to the Nevada Secretary of State's office:

https://silverstateelection.nv.gov/

[Donkees]

6. That hasn't been updated

[yardwork]

12. Many readers here in GD don't know all these details.

Could you give us some context and more information? We are interested but don't understand your OP.

[Donkees]

15. The Nevada mail-in votes are *still* being counted and the election results are being 'updated'

I posted the latest update, which shows Senator Cortez Masto gaining.

[Abnredleg]

5. Ralston says CCM should overtake Laxalt

rural votes are in, and that at the current rate CCM will overtake Laxalt. Governor’s race is much closer

[yardwork]

13. Thank you!

[Claustrum]

7. FYI, Ralston thinks CCM should win if the voters broke the same way as they did yesterday.

She got a bit over 65% of the votes in the first batch of votes last night. Ralston says she needs about 55%+ to win.



If her margin decreases from 65-30 to 60-30, for instance, she would still in decisively.

If it is 60-35, same.

If it's 55-30, same.

If it's 55-35, same.

She wins in all those models.

Buckle up.

Link to tweet

?cxt=HHwWhsCjoczc95IsAAAA

[kansasobama]

9. It has to be 60-35, not 60-30

Because 35 is not changing. If it is not 65-35, it will be 60-40. No way, it will be 60-30.

Praying for 65-35.

[Claustrum]

14. That clearly wasn't what Ralston said at 1:45am when that post was posted.

He said she only needs 55% to win. But if newer votes came in after the time of his post, then the ratio could have changed. But I doubt it would change so dramatically from 55 to 65.

Don't get me wrong. I see him hedging and his math seems weird so I take it with a grin of salt. It's weird that his math model is 55/35. I assume if CCM gets 55, then Laxel should get 40% at least. If CCM gets 50, then Laxel should be 45+. That part seems sketchy to me.

[kansasobama]

18. He was very uncomfortable last night on MSNBC

Did not look overly confident. Maybe, hopeful and nervous

[Demsrule86]

21. No that is Ralston...if he thought she would lose. He would say so. He is the authority and

I saw him last night too and I did not think he looked 'nervous'.

[Demsrule86]

24. He looked fine and better today...we are going to win.

[kansasobama]

8. Ralston has been up and down for the last 24 hours

I respect Ralston but he has not been very consistent on Nevada. In the last MSNBC report, he kept saying, CCM can overtake, "which will be not an easy task". He seems to be hedging a lot more than usual. Hope the urban votes come at 60-40. I am a little disappointed with Washoe County, but I hope they turn around somehow. Praying, praying.

A large majority of Hispanic voters have pretty much betrayed Democrats in Florida and Texas, but I hope Nevada does not do that. Democrats have seriously made an error with trying to woo Hispanic vote in Florida and Texas. Concentrate more in NC and Nevada, please. Florida and Texas are gone.

[SoCalDavidS]

10. Sadly, You Are Absolutely Correct

Let FL & TX do their thing, and focus on truly Purple states, where we can solidify our results. I'd add AZ & GA to that list.

[SunImp]

20. +1

[Demsrule86]

25. I just heard him this afternoon and the vote is breaking in our favor and he looked just fine.

[Donkees]

11. 1hour ago a batch of 20,607 votes was reported, Cortez Masto received 5,205 more votes than Laxalt

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-us-election-results/nevada/

[Johnny2X2X]

16. Yeah

Cortez Mastro is a big favorite to win this right now. Over 90% on betting markets. She’s likely going to win by over 50,000 votes. Patience is needed.

[Polybius]

22. Not by nearly that much

Of all the counties left, only one favors her and that's Clark County. They are 88% already in, so that means that there are 73,011 votes in that county left. It's light Blue. Of the 88% so far in in that county, she's up just 5%.

So if that trend holds, she'll be getting 52.5% of the votes. That would be 38,331 for her, and 34,680 for him. That's a pickup of 3,651 votes for her. Plus, there are a few remaining Red counties left. I don't see how she wins, unless the experts have different data than the NYT is showing. scroll down to where it says "Where votes have been reported and where votes remain."

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-nevada-us-senate.html

[Johnny2X2X]

23. Mail in ballots

We're talking mail in ballots that are left. She'll win the mail in ballots in even the red counties. That's why people think this is a done deal.

[inthewind21]

27. Wrong

NO one knows what the actual vote count is until Saturday comes and goes since mail ballots are still being received and counted until then.

[jcgoldie]

28. Theres 70 k more ballots from the same batch of mail in ballots...

...that she was winning 65-30. So the overwhelming probability is those ballots will be much more favorable to her than the clark county vote overall.

[kansasobama]

17. Thanks but lead seems to be the same as last night

Not sure if a new batch came today. This was last night.

[ffr]

19. I think you are correct, it appears that's the batch from last night.

Link to tweet

8 hours ago
Here's what we know on the Nevada Senate race, if we assume the rurals are all but spent, will only add a couple thousand at most to Laxalt's lead:

If CCM continues to win urban mail at current clip, taking 65%, she will easily overtake Laxalt with 110,000 mail (at least) left.

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

26. Thanks Donkees...we are going to get this one...the votes are in Democratic areas.