PA Senate debate played much worse for Oz. These graphs show analysts got it all wrong...

[Nevilledog]

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Drew Linzer

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An incredible look at the PA-Sen race based on daily tracking of Fetterman & Oz favorable ratings by @Civiqs that we can now release.

That "disastrous" debate? In reality, it helped Fetterman and stalled out Oz's improving favorable ratings. @kerryeleveld

dailykos.com
Pennsylvania's Senate debate played much worse for Oz. These graphs show analysts got it all wrong
The cascade of Democratic second-guessing came quick after then-Democratic Senate nominee, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, persevered through a debate that plainly illustrated he was still in the midst of...
3:03 PM · Nov 10, 2022

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/10/2135111/-Analysts-entirely-misread-the-Fetterman-Oz-debate-These-graphs-show-how-wrong-they-were

The cascade of Democratic angst came quickly after then-Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nominee, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, persevered through a debate that plainly illustrated he was still in the midst of recovering from the stroke he suffered earlier in the year.

Democratic operatives told reporters they were "on edge" about Fetterman's "rocky" performance, even "second-guessing" the wisdom of the campaign allowing him to debate at all.

They all turned out to be wrong after Fetterman triumphed Tuesday over his GOP rival Mehmet Oz. But one person who nailed the ultimate impact of the debate on the night it took place was The Bulwark publisher Sarah Longwell, who acknowledged in a tweet that "objectively" Oz was outperforming a “struggling” Fetterman.

"But there is nothing likeable about Oz," she added. "He’s smirking, fast-talking, and I’m not sure he’s doing anything to reduce his unfavorables."

In other words, as I wrote the next day, the real question following the debate remained: Could Oz overcome his ick factor?

No, was the final answer to that question, with Fetterman securing a solid 4-point win over Oz, 47% - 51%, on Election Day.

*snip*

[James48]

1. "Ick factor"

Oz was not alone in that.

Here in Michigan, the Republican “Ick Factor” was in full bloom.

[wishstar]

2. Also Fetterman answered the questions while Oz was dodgy and evasive

To me Fetterman seemed authentic whie Oz seemed like a fast talking conman in that debate

[3catwoman3]

5. He doesn't just...

…seem like a fast-talking con man, he IS a fast-talking con man.

[bucolic_frolic]

3. Near me, sign for Oz and Mastriano were pulled the next day

Even the huge wooden framework ones. Says to me they were all paid operations.

[Cha]

4. Stupid Collective Damn media$$$$$ nt

[Joe Cool]

6. Butler County resident here

I have seen Fetterman in person including this past Labor Day in Pittsburgh four times in my life. I have never seen Oz in person in Pennsylvania. Fetterman is an actual Pennsylvanian and cares about the state. Everyone knew Oz only cared about being a Senator. All politics is local. If Fetterman didn’t have a stroke he might have won by about 10% if not more. I kept saying on DU before the election that I have never seen so many signs for Democratic candidates including those for Fetterman in heavily GOP Butler County in my life.