Please answer this with your head, not your heart.

[Funtatlaguy]

If your life depended on you being correct, who do you predict wins the Arizona Governor’s race and who do you believe wins the Nevada Senate race?
I’m talking after all votes in, all challenges, and all recounts.

I keep looking at every reliable source I can find in both races and I just don’t know what to think.
I want the Dems to win SOOO much that it colors any impartial judgement I might have.

[TheFarseer]

1. My best guess is

We win Arizona Senate and Governor but not Nevada. I’m pretty confident of Arizona but Nevada is very close.

[Funtatlaguy]

2. Arizona Senate has already been called for incumbent Dem Kelly

It’s the Arizona Governor and Nevada Senate we are waiting on and neither has been called by any media outlets

[Celerity]

4. where?

Arizona Senate has already been called for incumbent Dem Kelly

[claudette]

6. I found this

https://www.mediaite.com/news/breaking-democrat-mark-kelly-defeats-blake-masters-in-key-senate-race-per-cook-political-report/

[Celerity]

7. wow, super news!!!

Link to tweet

[Raven123]

3. Kelly in AZ. Nevada just too close

[brush]

5. We'll win in AZ and NV. Senate and Gov. Take it to the bank.

I live in Vegas and Cortez-Masto and Sisolak are steadily closing the gaps on Laxalt and Lombardi, and in AZ Kelly has already secured a win and Hobbs is slightly widening her lead on Lake.

[iluvtennis]

10. +1.

[certainot]

13. with media now it's possible their challenges won't get support to the supremes....

like would have happened in recent times

GOP might be over trump, but desantis is a joke too, or joke 2

[MySideOfTown]

9. The future doesn't tell

(j.Mitchell)

[rpannier]

11. NV Senate, not Gov. AZ win both

The two biggest counties, both majority Dem have quite a few votes to count. While there are other counties left, the red counties percentages of votes counted are higher and there are fewer voters

[gab13by13]

12. Az Senate 100%

Az Gov, nope, Nev, Senate, nope. Az Gov has a chance if same day votes fall for Dems.

They changed the remaining votes left in Nevada from 70k to 50k which screwed it for us. No explanation why the number was so far off.

[hlthe2b]

14. I realize it is ridiculous, but I am still too superstitious to say. All know what my hopes are.

so....

[Samrob]

15. I think C-M pulls it off in NV

I did my own math and came up with this: C-M needs to get 61% of all the rest of the outstanding votes and she wins safely. She needs 59.8% to eek it out.

[lambchopp59]

16. Can't help some heart felt response here

Predictions fail us, as did miserably in 2016.
Head end says: With half a million ballots still to tally, Kari Lake still has over 25,000 votes to catch up to Hobbs at 82 percent count. Last reported tally had a significant jump for our side.
Head prediction: We win.
Heart prediction: We also win, and here's why:
I've had the opportunity to drive about the state of Azricrazymethheadnona, Nozridrynowwetterna, Cactizona, and even some Arizona now for over a month, starting a new travel gig here next week.
I haven't observed the numbers of Trump and general MAGA stickers on vehicles that were apparent some years back.
But when I've seen them, they've absolutely decimated their vehicle's value, covered with a dozen racist, crazy, gun-image emblazoned, "die in hell democrats", many with four letter expletives then "Biden".
Almost. Unexceptionally.
Yeah. Crazy, every last RW-bent vehicle I've seen in well over a month and lots of travel. No longer is a lone "Trump" sticker seen. They've worn out their welcome mat. They've worn everyone down with fanaticism and tacked on all the wildest Q-nut crap to the extent that I'd say a good portion of the working and middle age class, if not enveloped in enclaves of Republican and/or psuedo-religious shit, include significant numbers of maybe previous Republicans sick to death of the ilk.
Add the Dobbs motivated, subtract the "abortion is murder" element, anti-Dobbs probably edges out the Christofascists.
That doesn't, however, include the number of veritable retired shut-ins and snowbirds who aren't exposed to practically any of that.