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WaPo: Could Democrats still win the House majority?
The assumption has long been that the chamber [House] would go red. But this election has certainly tested plenty of assumptions.
Democrats have been projected as the winners in 191 House districts, while 211 have gone to the Republicans. The magic number for a majority is 218, so Republicans are obviously much closer.
But those raw numbers are misleading: Most of the yet-to-be-decided districts are out West — read: Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon and Washington — where the vote counting is slower, and most lean blue. That region has upward of 10 clearly blue seats that don’t have enough votes in to be called, but are very unlikely to flip. And several others lean blue.
That leaves about 30 potentially competitive but uncalled races. Republicans would only need to win seven to get their House majority. As things stand, the latest election results show them leading in 10 of the outstanding districts, which would be enough. But many of the races feature substantial numbers of uncounted votes, meaning there could be significant shifts — in either direction — depending on which precincts the uncounted votes are coming from.
Democrats have been projected as the winners in 191 House districts, while 211 have gone to the Republicans. The magic number for a majority is 218, so Republicans are obviously much closer.
But those raw numbers are misleading: Most of the yet-to-be-decided districts are out West — read: Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon and Washington — where the vote counting is slower, and most lean blue. That region has upward of 10 clearly blue seats that don’t have enough votes in to be called, but are very unlikely to flip. And several others lean blue.
That leaves about 30 potentially competitive but uncalled races. Republicans would only need to win seven to get their House majority. As things stand, the latest election results show them leading in 10 of the outstanding districts, which would be enough. But many of the races feature substantial numbers of uncounted votes, meaning there could be significant shifts — in either direction — depending on which precincts the uncounted votes are coming from.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/10/undecided-house-races-2022/
No paywall version: https://archive.ph/3lwCA
10 replies
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The CA seats are at like 53% or higher
These seats aren't in coastal areas
One in AZ is a red incumbent
Boebert's seat is also out there.
