Michael Moore Still Batting 1.000

[douglas9]

I listened to NPR and other radio outlets Election Recaps the last two days while driving 135 miles to and fro. They had the politicians, media hacks and useless pollsters lined up back-to-back. The gist of the endless hours of coverage was: “How did the Politicians, the Media and, especially, the Pollsters get it so wrong?”

Pre-election, the same folks who predicted a 2016 Clinton Landslide all were blathering about the coming “2022 Red Wave Tsunami.” It was anything but. (In 2016, the same pundit/pollsters: HuffPost predicted a Clinton sure thing – a 94% chance of victory and 340 Electoral Votes. NPR predicted a Clinton 332 Electoral College votes. The New York Times had Clinton at 85%. In 2016, Nate Silver and his Five-thirty-eight, the monumentally overrated Pollsters, predicted that Hillary Clinton was a 99+% lock to win the 2016 Michigan Primary and then after that fiasco, still predicted she had a 71% one to win the Presidency.)



https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/11/11/michael-moore-still-batting-1-000/

[underpants]

1. Yep. He gave me hope weeks out when he said a Blue Wave was possible

Considering the conflated expectations, it was a blue wave.

[ananda]

2. I have always liked Michael Moore.

He is one smart activist.

[whathehell]

16. Me too..

Go Mike.

[yardwork]

3. I think Michael Moore is an annoying twit - but he's often correct.

[whathehell]

15. I think Michael Moore is terrific in ADDITION to

frequently being correct.

[sarchasm]

24. Curious, what do you find annoying or twit-like about MM yardwork?

He seems decent, moral, and empathic to me. A welcome and needed voice in today’s political landscape. He obviously has his finger directly on the pulse of working people. I think Democrats would do well to take his advise on how win majorities in state and federal elections.

[yardwork]

26. My opinion goes back decades.

Moore may be decent, moral and empathic. I think he's really smart and he's made some great documentaries. I agree that the Democratic Party should listen to him. But it's Moore's own fault that he's an outsider. He doesn't play well with others.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

4. The media persistently saying there's a Red or Blue Wave coming probably depresses turnout

Voters (well, people) are lazy. They're looking for excuses not to bother doing their civic duty.

Media pumps out messages of 'so and so has it in the bag', it can suppress turnout on either side, but I think often it mostly hurts the candidates who people are holding their nose and voting for. Those are the most easily peeled-off voters when you widely say 'this candidate is winning'.

There were a LOT of those candidates in the GOP. I think all the talk of a Red Wave in the leading weeks ... helped us overall.

[MaryMagdaline]

5. He was probably feeling the vibes in Michigan

My cousins in Michigan were telling me for months that women and young people were pissed. My cousin’s daughter, a voter but relatively apolitical, was getting together with friends to register voters. Michigan was a bell weather.

[delisen]

7. I think you are right on this. Moore listened to Michigan voters. nt

[TheRealNorth]

10. That was my thought as well...

Wasn't exactly a blue wave nationwide IMO, but we certainly exceeded expectations.

But it sounds like we did even better in MI than in other areas. Helps when you have fairer maps.

[Rebl2]

12. No blue wave

my state of Missouri.

[Tetrachloride]

13. Wisconsin ... mmm

Governor Evers won. D

Ron Johnson won. R

AG Kaul won. D.

Van Orden won. R

I am grateful for Pennsylvania, AZ, Georgia especially.

[13Dogs]

6. A Lighthouse Awash in a Sea of Lies

Michael Moore has proven his bonafide’s predicting previous election outcomes with uncanny accuracy. Knowing this I took great comfort in his predictions for the 2022 midterms. His daily observations made total sense so of course the corporate owned MSM wanted to bury these observations and push the right wing red wave narrative despite it being total BS.
Thank you Michael. You’re a true American patriot, unlike the right wing propagandists.

[peggysue2]

8. Yup, Michael Moore was correct in his assessment of the mid-terms

He turned against the 'conventional wisdom' guys by listening to people on the ground.

Know who else was right? The actual data guys--Tom Bonier at TargetSmart and Simon Rosenberg, an experienced Dem analyst and campaigner going back to the Dukakis campaign. They were both tracking the incredible early vote turnout (approx 45 million voters at the end of it), tracking the Dem registration advantage and shouting "why isn't the press covering this, why is this incredible mountain of votes being ignored?'

Because the Red Wave meme had swallowed the minds of everyone. We went from a Red Wave to a Red Tsunami to a Red Hurricane to a bloodbath of mammoth proportions. We also had junk polls stinking up the averages, something Joy Reid was willing to announce publicly, only to be beat over the head by RW pundits.

I guarantee you Republican insiders and the numbers guys knew the Red Wave meme was horse shit but the talking heads kept pushing it bc maybe, just maybe they could convince Dems and other rational voters to give it up, to believe all was lost and a GOP victory was inevitable.

Didn't happen.

Next time out? Tap Michael Moore on the shoulder and ask for his opinion, then check out the real data guys for confirmation. And do not believe anything coming out of Republican pie-holes.

[TheRealNorth]

11. Good idea

[KPN]

18. Good stuff! Now if I can just remember Tom Bonier - TargetSmart, and

Simon Rosenberg next time around!

[DLCWIdem]

20. Except some guys here were saying

Target Smart was not showing an increase in early voting. Or at least that the early vote was "cannibalizing" the mail in vote. I remember piating that in WI they early vote is considered absentee vote and they are 1 in the same thing.

[Greybnk48]

9. I love Michael Moore. And I trust what he says to be

almost 100% accurate. When he said we were going to kick ass in this election, it was a relief!

[DownriverDem]

14. Folks need to see

what we did in Michigan in 2018. We passed a voting rights proposal and changes to how district lines are drawn. A citizen committee drew the lines instead of who controlled the legislature. The districts ended up more fair. That enabled us to win control of the House and Senate for the first time in 40 years. We now have same day registration and voting. Due to covid we have more folks voting absentee/mail in. Just wait for the MAGA repubs to understand what increased voting rights we passed this time. Look to Michigan for the changes your state badly needs.

[yardwork]

17. This is so important!

[KPN]

19. Yeah, my sister lives in MI and canvassed for getting that citizen committee redistricting.

That was a big deal. Yay Michiganders!

[appalachiablue]

23. Excellent, good for Michigan voters!

[stopdiggin]

21. Moore was marginally more on target

but the midterms weren't the 'blue tsunami' that he pitched either. (varying state to state, with some battlegrounds performing well - but overall it looks like 'turnout' was down from 2018)

- “On November 8th, 2022, an unprecedented tsunami of voters will descend upon the polls en masse — and nonviolently, legally, and without mercy remove every last stinking traitor to our Democracy,” reads the intro to Moore’s “Mike’s Midterm Tsunami of Truth” - Substack.

Not exactly.

[yardwork]

27. Yeah, that didn't happen in NC at all.

[stopdiggin]

30. turnout in my district

about 33%. So much for "democracy at stake."

I'm all for allowing the little victory laps and dances ..
But it really is (in large part) back to grind. Here, and in a lot of other places.

[cate94]

22. Good article about Michael Moore

Although the commentary about Boomers was unnecessary and untrue. Btw, Michael Moore is a Boomer.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

25. Michael Moore is always right

if you leave out the times he's been spectacularly wrong.

[yardwork]

28. +1

[stopdiggin]

31. and always with over the top bombast ..

the guy is neither a pollster, nor a pundit. He's a political activist.

Moore's 'prediction' looks good - when cast against Faux News (et.al.) manic "tsunami" blather and boosterism.
But it's also worth pointing out that there were a lot of voices out there that were predicting multiple 'very close contests" and a very narrow outcome. Which is largely what ....

[tman]

29. I still remember when Moore predicted Obama would lose in 2012.