Sat Nov 12, 2022, 10:16 AM
Claustrum (4,795 posts)
New update of current status of outstanding House races from Dave Wasserman
New House math:
Dem called/likely (212), incl. #AKAL, #CA09, #CA21, #CA47, #CA49, #CO08, #ME02, #OR06 GOP called/likely (217): incl. #CA03, #CA27, #CA45, #CO03, #NY22, #OR05 Toss Ups (6): #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #WA03 Dems need to run the table on Toss Ups for 218. It's possible #CA13 (Modesto) and #WA03 (Vancouver) lean slightly towards Ds at this point, and #CA41 (Riverside County) might lean ever-so-slightly towards Rs. But #AZ01 (Scottsdale), #AZ06 (Tucson) and #CA22 (Bakersfield) are the toughest to divine at the moment. Link to tweet Link to tweet
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19 replies, 2325 views
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Author | Time | Post |
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Claustrum | Nov 2022 | OP |
triron | Nov 2022 | #1 | |
LeftInTX | Nov 2022 | #4 | |
In It to Win It | Nov 2022 | #5 | |
LeftInTX | Nov 2022 | #6 | |
grantcart | Nov 2022 | #11 | |
triron | Nov 2022 | #2 | |
Deminpenn | Nov 2022 | #3 | |
dpibel | Nov 2022 | #12 | |
Indykatie | Nov 2022 | #7 | |
TigressDem | Nov 2022 | #9 | |
TigressDem | Nov 2022 | #8 | |
TigressDem | Nov 2022 | #10 | |
Alice Kramden | Nov 2022 | #13 | |
David__77 | Nov 2022 | #14 | |
Deminpenn | Nov 2022 | #15 | |
LeftInTX | Nov 2022 | #16 | |
Deminpenn | Nov 2022 | #17 | |
LeftInTX | Nov 2022 | #18 | |
TigressDem | Nov 2022 | #19 |
Response to Claustrum (Original post)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 10:29 AM
triron (21,520 posts)
1. Looks doable but votes need to break our way.
Anyone here have familiarity with any of these districts?
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Response to triron (Reply #1)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 10:49 AM
LeftInTX (22,507 posts)
4. AZ 6??? Ugh...That one looks R to me..There was a discussion last night...
It's not Tucson, it's area surrounding Tucson..
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Response to LeftInTX (Reply #4)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 10:56 AM
In It to Win It (7,346 posts)
5. I was wondering about that one last nght as well
Even though Engel (D) is not so far behind that it's impossible to make up, I was skeptical that the remaining votes would lean her way.
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Response to In It to Win It (Reply #5)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 11:25 AM
LeftInTX (22,507 posts)
6. I think Wasserman is trying to juggle alot of districts and thought it included Tucson.
Response to In It to Win It (Reply #5)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 12:09 PM
grantcart (53,061 posts)
11. Agree BUT I didn't think it would be this close
There is Avery strong independent local PAC that started as an anti McSally movement. They could be organizing the eastern suburbs. The country's largest Move On chapter is in Pima county. Still possible. |
Response to Claustrum (Original post)
triron This message was self-deleted by its author.
Response to Claustrum (Original post)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 10:36 AM
Deminpenn (15,119 posts)
3. Dem is leading in WA-3
Usually it goes that toss ups all fall in the same direction. It might be a good sign if Dems do flip WA-3 that all the other close elections go to Dems as well.
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Response to Deminpenn (Reply #3)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 12:51 PM
dpibel (2,377 posts)
12. Clark County is where most votes remain to be counted
That's Gluesenkamp Perez' stronghold--she leads there 56% to 44%. Hard to believe the late-counted votes would break against her. Unlikely there are enough votes remaining in the outlying cracker counties to make a difference.
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Response to Claustrum (Original post)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 11:33 AM
Indykatie (3,628 posts)
7. Best Definition of Karma? Dems Having a Chance At Holding the House.
Response to Indykatie (Reply #7)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 12:00 PM
TigressDem (5,014 posts)
9. +1,000,000 NANCY! NANCY! NANCY!
OMG what's his face is measuring for curtains already.... lol
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Response to Claustrum (Original post)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 11:59 AM
TigressDem (5,014 posts)
8. LIVE UPDATE 10:50AM ET 201 DEM, 23 undecided 211 REPug --- link
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/10/us/elections/results-house-seats-elections-congress.html
Chart on the link is encouraging. 13 of the 23 undecided are leaning toward DEMS. AND 5 of those leaning Repug are in California.... which has outstanding mail in ballots that still need to be counted. Even two that have been "called" Repug technically in California are at 71% counted and 56% counted, so they could flip. |
Response to TigressDem (Reply #8)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 12:03 PM
TigressDem (5,014 posts)
10. IF CA's MAIL IN BALLOTS are mostly DEM, we'd have 18 of the 23 undecided - 219 FTW
Response to TigressDem (Reply #10)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 12:55 PM
Alice Kramden (2,058 posts)
13. That's what I'm hoping for!!!
Thank you for brightening my day
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Response to TigressDem (Reply #10)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 01:14 PM
David__77 (21,536 posts)
14. I hope so.
In 2018, things trended left with time. In 2020, they did not. Hopefully as they get to provisionals that will particularly make an impact.
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Response to TigressDem (Reply #10)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 01:34 PM
Deminpenn (15,119 posts)
15. Depends on where they are though
Correct?
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Response to Deminpenn (Reply #15)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 01:42 PM
LeftInTX (22,507 posts)
16. Yes, there are places in CA that are just plain old red.
Response to LeftInTX (Reply #16)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 01:52 PM
Deminpenn (15,119 posts)
17. Meant the outstanding ballots
not the CDs. Sorry for the confusion. |
Response to Deminpenn (Reply #17)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 01:58 PM
LeftInTX (22,507 posts)
18. Some of these districts were red before. I'm not expecting miracles.
Response to LeftInTX (Reply #16)
Sat Nov 12, 2022, 03:48 PM
TigressDem (5,014 posts)
19. But, hopefully, the RED votes are already counted.
The MAGAs put so much fear in their sheeple to not vote by Mail In Ballots, that if that is all that is left to count....
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