BREAKING: Katie Hobbs' campaign manager just said that she has "clinched the win" over Kari Lake

[iluvtennis]

Link to tweet

Victor Shi@Victorshi2020·52 minutes ago
BREAKING: Katie Hobbs’ campaign manager just said that she has “clinched the win” over Kari Lake based on the most recent ballots that got dropped. Worth remembering that over 2/3rds of young people voted for Katie Hobbs in this election. This is huge.

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Did I miss a tranche of votes being dropped today. Been periodically checking the tV today, but haven't seen anything.

p.s. not seeing any update vote tally different than Sunday evening. https://www.azcentral.com/elections/results/2022-11-08/state/arizona/

[DestinyIsles]

1. Pretty sure they know where the remaining votes are coming from to clinch victory

Lake is pretty much done.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

2. Nothing from any news source in AZ. SOS site hasn't changed totals

WHo is this person claiming this?

[iluvtennis]

10. Hobbs' campaign manager - Nicole DeMont. n/t

[Demsrule86]

12. Pima 1600 dropped she got 52 to 48 way less than what she needs.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

13. Pinal I'm seeing, not Pima

Pinal is red and Hobbs did not do well.

[iluvtennis]

18. See #7 in this thread below. n/t

[Mosby]

32. They changed at least twice today

This morning Horne was winning for the first time by like 600 votes, now Hoffman is back up by 4100 or so.

Turnout is up to 59.6

[hlthe2b]

3. Maybe they are getting an informal headsup, but no updates yet.

[honest.abe]

6. Yeah, that's what I am thinking also.

[StarryNite]

9. I don't think that's the case.

They are too professional to do that.

[hlthe2b]

19. Informal grapevines exist in all kinds of settings

Needn't be any kind of inappropriate communication.

[asiliveandbreathe]

4. Fake twitter????

Dunno

[brooklynite]

16. Not fake, but not necessarily informed.

[gab13by13]

5. Our side doesn't need to do stuff the other side does.

I'm waiting for a more non partisan call.

I like the enthusiasm though.

[honest.abe]

7. There was dump from Pinal a few moments ago and very weak for Lake based on expectations.

Pinal County with another 1,656 ballots
Est. 8,209 remain (94% complete)

Batch breakdown
Governor
@KariLake 51.6
@katiehobbs 48.4

Link to tweet

[onetexan]

8. Here's WaPo link: Kari Lake is being advised that she will likely lose the Arizona governor's race

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2022/11/14/kari-lake-arizona-governor-race-results/

[AZSkiffyGeek]

15. Whoa, I didn't realize Yvonne was at WaPo now

I worked with her at the AZ Republic 15 years ago.

[Grown2Hate]

11. Working now, but I did the math last night...

Unless Lake gets 65% tonight from Maricopa county (we'll know at 6pm AZ Time), she can't catch up. I based that on all outstanding view from every county and assuming Lake pulls her BEST numbers from each of those.

If Maricopa is anything under 65% for Lake in a couple hours (she hasn't come close to that yet), they'll call it for Hobbs.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

14. It sounds like this drop will be all of Maricopa except uncurled and provisionals

[Grown2Hate]

23. Yeah, and if it's not at LEAST 65% for Lake

(a HUGE differential than what she has been getting), I don't see a path for her. I'm excited!!!

[appmanga]

24. There's also...

...a House race where the Republican is ahead by just under 900 votes. If the Maricopa County drop leans heavily Democratic, the Democrat should go ahead in that race. Democrats need 12 of the outstanding 17 seats to have a House majority:

Arizona · District 1 93% reporting

David Schweikert Republican Party - 172,845 votes - 50.1%

Jevin Hodge Democratic Party - 171,951 votes - 49.9%

[iluvtennis]

26. That'll be great news. Will be looking for that 9pm EST drop of votes. n/t

[Cha]

17. Looks like it didn't hurt Katie Hobbs

that she wouldn't debate the Gaslit screaming Liar.

TY.. and CAn't wait until it's called! 💙

[MontanaMama]

25. Guess Gaslit Scary Lake shouldn't have

threatened the press the other day!!!

[Cha]

27. Yeah, that was fucking Stupid.. a mini

DT move.

Also her campaign office reported suspicious white powder in an envelope sent to them.. the police sent it to the lab.. and there was NO powder in it.

Who does that? Poor little victimhoods.

It's KARMA barreling down fast!

[Sky Jewels]

20. It seems that AZ is truly a D state now.

I was skeptical that it would remain blue, but it has really come through. (Hey, that rhymes.) The generational shift has dashed the hopes and future the Arizona Republican party upon the rocks and left the bones to bleach in the desert sun.

[jaxexpat]

21. The lazy Gila river can be a monster during a flash flood.

Bleached bones of what's caught in the wake litter the banks and eddys.

[Locutusofborg]

22. Its still purple but trending blue.

Two Republicans ran UNOPPOSED for Congress, no Democrat even tried. The federal House delegation looks like it could be six Republicans and three Democrats and the Republicans will control both Houses of the state legislature BY ONLY ONE SEAT.
There's much work still to do.

[Sky Jewels]

37. Yes, definitely.

I am hopeful that Gen Z aging into being a bigger voting block there (and everywhere) will tip it over to blue for the long run, and the D party will be more competitive statewide and get inspired to fight the R-Taliban for every vote, in every district. Arizona's population skews older, but I'd guess the voting power of the (in general) born-before-1965 generations has already peaked and will continue to decline, which will help our prospects.

[Kennah]

28. Final batch out of Maricopa in the 8 PM EDT hour

[republianmushroom]

29. Hope he is correct.

[grantcart]

30. Wasn't she + 26k? Now 30k

[grantcart]

31. Pima county came in + 4000 Hobbs it's over

[democratsruletheday]

33. bravo....

now let Lake and her orange idol whine and complain. I will love their utter misery as per normal.

[Uncle Joe]

34. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread iluvtennis

[iluvtennis]

35. You're welcome. A 71,400 batch of votes was just released (845 PM EST) for Maricopa County

Per CNN:

Hobbs: +30, 825 net gain in Maricopa county (43% of the drop of vots)
Lake: +40, 575 net gain in Maricopa county (57% of the drop of votes)

Ballots reamining to be counted in Maricopa county: 5,000 to 15,000
* 3500 election day
* 7,600 ballots to be cured
* 7,785 provisional

Overall state vote tallies

[iluvtennis]

36. NBC news has called the race for Hobbs. Yay!!

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217370345