Tue Nov 15, 2022, 10:42 PM

Trump won't even make it to the first primary

Mark my words

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44 replies	Author	Time	Post
Trump won't even make it to the first primary (Original post)	relayerbob	Nov 15	OP
Depends if he is still getting free media attention and significant campaign donations	Freethinker65	Nov 15	#1
Absolutely - as long as he benefits he continues. BTW - there is no jeopardy	walkingman	Nov 15	#11
Yes. Donations, free media exposure, ...	Hortensis	Nov 16	#32
When is the first primary?	at140	Nov 15	#2
Probably Feb 2024	relayerbob	Nov 15	#6
Iowa caucus should be late January 2024, and New Hampshire primary	DemocraticPatriot	Nov 15	#7
I thought the Iowa caucus was going the way of all obsolete	Better Days Ahoy	Nov 16	#15
I'm not even inclined to do the caucuses	Bettie	Nov 16	#19
Thank you for that information! nt	at140	Nov 16	#42
That's what we said in 2016 and look what happened.	nycbos	Nov 15	#3
Absolutely not what I said ...	relayerbob	Nov 15	#5
He may not be "over" until he is defeated in another general election...	DemocraticPatriot	Nov 15	#8
He'll never see another election	relayerbob	Nov 15	#9
Maybe not. Maybe so.	DemocraticPatriot	Nov 15	#10
It's not 2016.	BannonsLiver	Nov 16	#24
I'm hoping by then they won't let him out of...	Enter stage left	Nov 15	#4
Heard that before	sarisataka	Nov 15	#12
How many Dems will cross over and vote for him?	MichMan	Nov 15	#13
Imma gonna kill a goat or chicken or whatever in prayer to whomever for Trump to be the GOP nominee	Kennah	Nov 16	#14
👍 + 10000	Tribetime	Nov 16	#44
Probably not. The real question is	GoCubsGo	Nov 16	#16
100% agreed	relayerbob	Nov 16	#17
Donald Trump is Democrats' greatest gift: Why his buffoonish politics threaten to bring down his ent	sarisataka	Nov 16	#21
He has a non-zero chance of dropping dead long before then	Johonny	Nov 16	#18
They don't care one bit about his health	Cosmocat	Nov 16	#20
I don't think the GOP will nominate a dead man	Johonny	Nov 16	#35
He has gained weight and speech is slower than usual	at140	Nov 16	#43
Tha's what I said	obnoxiousdrunk	Nov 16	#22
It's not 2015 anymore	BannonsLiver	Nov 16	#25
You weren't paying attention	relayerbob	Nov 16	#27
The day he announced his candidacy in 2015	sarisataka	Nov 16	#31
If there are more than two other Republicans running...	kentuck	Nov 16	#23
Nope	relayerbob	Nov 16	#26
If I had a nickel for every wrong prediction made on DU about Trump I'd be able to pay his lawyers	onenote	Nov 16	#28
Yawn	relayerbob	Nov 16	#29
+1. N/T	obnoxiousdrunk	Nov 16	#37
See this report. This tells it like it is	relayerbob	Nov 16	#30
The Palmer Report.	onenote	Nov 16	#33
RW elites do not BASE	JCMach1	Nov 16	#39
He's going nowehere fast without the support of Fox News and the Murdochs	ZonkerHarris	Nov 16	#34
This is pretty funny and very telling ....	relayerbob	Nov 16	#36
This.	GoodRaisin	Nov 16	#38
and the WSJ for the serious types. It's nice to own an empire.	ZonkerHarris	Nov 16	#40
Indeed.	GoodRaisin	Nov 16	#41

Response to relayerbob (Original post)

Tue Nov 15, 2022, 10:45 PM

Freethinker65 (7,856 posts)

1. Depends if he is still getting free media attention and significant campaign donations

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Response to Freethinker65 (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 15, 2022, 11:47 PM

walkingman (5,463 posts)

11. Absolutely - as long as he benefits he continues. BTW - there is no jeopardy

for him from the DOJ. That is not the way our justice system works. The wealthy and powerful figured that out long ago. This is the real history of America that no one likes to admit.

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Response to Freethinker65 (Reply #1)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 12:06 PM

Hortensis (55,127 posts)

32. Yes. Donations, free media exposure, ...

protection against becoming irrelevant.

Attention! Cheering crowds!

An identity as presidential candidate being targeted for political reasons is reportedly also seen as his big "defense" against his legal troubles since his legal defenses are almost nil. He's counting on outrage at his (their) persecution by "the establishment" to reenergize his populist base, court delays, etc. And it will work, just how much?

But agree that if he wanted nothing else, he wouldn't give up the donations and free media. He'd just campaign from the patio at Mar a Lago while he planned to become a TV character again, or something.

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Response to relayerbob (Original post)

Tue Nov 15, 2022, 10:45 PM

at140 (6,025 posts)

2. When is the first primary?

I am guessing end of 2023?

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Response to at140 (Reply #2)

Tue Nov 15, 2022, 10:57 PM

relayerbob (5,806 posts)

6. Probably Feb 2024

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Response to at140 (Reply #2)

Tue Nov 15, 2022, 11:01 PM

DemocraticPatriot (1,815 posts)

7. Iowa caucus should be late January 2024, and New Hampshire primary

one week after that, if the usual schedules do not change....

However, there is pressure on the Democratic side to scramble the order of early primaries and caucuses--- but if President Biden runs for re-election, and has no 'significant' opposition, the pressure about changing early primary state dates would likely be deferred for another 4 years...

In any case, no national party can change dates of primaries that are mandated by state laws... so things are unclear at this early date.

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Response to DemocraticPatriot (Reply #7)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 07:17 AM

Better Days Ahoy (644 posts)

15. I thought the Iowa caucus was going the way of all obsolete

And irrelevant concepts.
There was talk of ending these stupid exercises.

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Response to DemocraticPatriot (Reply #7)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 09:51 AM

Bettie (14,573 posts)

19. I'm not even inclined to do the caucuses

this time around.

It requires hours and hours of work, training, and ultimately, it means less than nothing except the phone ringing constantly for nearly a year.

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Response to DemocraticPatriot (Reply #7)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 07:23 PM

at140 (6,025 posts)

42. Thank you for that information! nt

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Response to relayerbob (Original post)

Tue Nov 15, 2022, 10:46 PM

nycbos (5,640 posts)

3. That's what we said in 2016 and look what happened.

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Response to nycbos (Reply #3)

Tue Nov 15, 2022, 10:54 PM

relayerbob (5,806 posts)

5. Absolutely not what I said ...

I said in August 2015, that he would win. The racists of the country would all be drawn out because of Obama and he would win be appealing to the lowest common denominator.

No longer. He now looks like a cockroach that has been sprayed but isn't quite dead yet. Flailing, flapping his wings, trying to look tough.

But it's over

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Response to relayerbob (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 15, 2022, 11:04 PM

DemocraticPatriot (1,815 posts)

8. He may not be "over" until he is defeated in another general election...

unless a "hero" comes out from the mist.. a messenger from God, I expect-- or the grim reaper...

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Response to DemocraticPatriot (Reply #8)

Tue Nov 15, 2022, 11:33 PM

relayerbob (5,806 posts)

9. He'll never see another election

With the possible exception ... if he runs as an independent. But that's even less likely

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Response to relayerbob (Reply #9)

Tue Nov 15, 2022, 11:37 PM

DemocraticPatriot (1,815 posts)

10. Maybe not. Maybe so.

But 2 years is a very long time, especially in politics. You may be right.

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Response to nycbos (Reply #3)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 11:16 AM

BannonsLiver (14,700 posts)

24. It's not 2016.

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Response to relayerbob (Original post)

Tue Nov 15, 2022, 10:47 PM

Enter stage left (2,892 posts)

4. I'm hoping by then they won't let him out of...

lock-up to campaign for anything.

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Response to relayerbob (Original post)

Tue Nov 15, 2022, 11:54 PM

sarisataka (15,219 posts)

12. Heard that before

Many other predictions as well that were equally accurate.

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Response to relayerbob (Original post)

Tue Nov 15, 2022, 11:59 PM

MichMan (8,549 posts)

13. How many Dems will cross over and vote for him?

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Response to relayerbob (Original post)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 12:03 AM

Kennah (9,941 posts)

14. Imma gonna kill a goat or chicken or whatever in prayer to whomever for Trump to be the GOP nominee

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Response to Kennah (Reply #14)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 07:37 PM

Tribetime (4,224 posts)

44. 👍 + 10000

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Response to relayerbob (Original post)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 07:20 AM

GoCubsGo (30,800 posts)

16. Probably not. The real question is

how much damage he does to his party before he drops out. May it be irreparable.

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Response to GoCubsGo (Reply #16)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 09:41 AM

relayerbob (5,806 posts)

17. 100% agreed

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Response to GoCubsGo (Reply #16)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 10:09 AM

sarisataka (15,219 posts)

21. Donald Trump is Democrats' greatest gift: Why his buffoonish politics threaten to bring down his ent

Donald Trump is Democrats’ greatest gift: Why his buffoonish politics threaten to bring down his entire party

The GOP embraced and enabled him at every turn. Now he's become a yoke they may not be able to shed before 2016

BILL HUMPHREY AND STEPHAN RICHTER, THE GLOBALIST

***
Rather, the problem emerged from the inside of the tent of the Republican Party. It is commonly called the “Donald Trump problem.”

The worst part for the Republicans is that Trump has the same effect as a Trojan horse. (Beware of the “Greeks” bearing gifts, Republicans of the United States!)

***

Outside of the 20% of voters who enthusiastically vote for Ross Perot types, people don’t love Trump. They love to hate him. They live to see his humiliation and failure, whether through his next bankruptcy (of which he has had quite a few) or in other venues.

Donald Trump may not win the nomination, but the Republicans will have a very hard time to rein him in or control him. To the Democrats’ great delight, he is setting the tone and terms of the race on the Republican side of the field.

https://www.salon.com/2015/07/10/donald_trump_is_democrats_greatest_gift_why_his_buffoonish_politics_threaten_to_bring_down_his_entire_party_partner/

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Response to relayerbob (Original post)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 09:47 AM

Johonny (18,087 posts)

18. He has a non-zero chance of dropping dead long before then

He doesn't look well and you have to feel most in the GOP know his real health condition.

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Response to Johonny (Reply #18)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 09:57 AM

Cosmocat (14,273 posts)

20. They don't care one bit about his health

heck, most of them think he is a divine entity.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #20)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 01:02 PM

Johonny (18,087 posts)

35. I don't think the GOP will nominate a dead man

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Response to Johonny (Reply #18)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 07:27 PM

at140 (6,025 posts)

43. He has gained weight and speech is slower than usual

This man does not look healthy and needs to retire to his Mar-a-Lago house.
He is not going to win nomination, and then his legacy will be 2 time loser.

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Response to relayerbob (Original post)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 10:20 AM

obnoxiousdrunk (2,744 posts)

22. Tha's what I said

in 2015.

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Response to obnoxiousdrunk (Reply #22)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 11:17 AM

BannonsLiver (14,700 posts)

25. It's not 2015 anymore

Do you expect history to repeat itself every time? Are the circumstances that got Trump elected in 2016 the exact same as they are now 6 years later?

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Response to obnoxiousdrunk (Reply #22)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 11:34 AM

relayerbob (5,806 posts)

27. You weren't paying attention

It was quite obvious to me in 2015, that he would win. He was playing on racists and fools after 8 years of a competent Black man as President.

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Response to relayerbob (Reply #27)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 12:01 PM

sarisataka (15,219 posts)

31. The day he announced his candidacy in 2015

I told my wife he would be the next President. I predicted Republicans would underestimate him and he would win the nomination. I said Democrats would then assume he could not possibly win and not take him seriously enough.

This time I am saying if he gets nominated and we do not take him seriously, he will win again.

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Response to relayerbob (Original post)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 10:21 AM

kentuck (108,538 posts)

23. If there are more than two other Republicans running...

Trump will be their nominee.

The only way to defeat him in a primary is with a one-on-one primary.

I hate to think what will happen if there is another Trump presidency.

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Response to kentuck (Reply #23)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 11:32 AM

relayerbob (5,806 posts)

26. Nope

His announcement is an act of desperation, not strength. Assuming he’s not in GA state pen, or dead, he won’t be a factor in the GQP. As a third party candidate, he might be on the ballot, but the most likely GQPper is DeSatan.

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Response to relayerbob (Original post)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 11:38 AM

onenote (39,064 posts)

28. If I had a nickel for every wrong prediction made on DU about Trump I'd be able to pay his lawyers

Going back in time to 2015, there have been predictions that:

Trump will drop out before the primaries.
Trump will drop out before the convention.
Trump will drop out after the convention.
Trump will drop out before the debates.
Trump will drop out after the debates
Trump will drop out before election day.
Trump will quit before inauguration day.
Trump will quit before a vote on impeachment
Trump will die before the end of his term.
Trump will flee the US right after Biden is inaugurated.
Trump will have to be physically removed from the White House.
And so on and so forth.

Folks misread him all the time. May be like a stopped clock, a prediction about Trump may finally be borne out, but I wouldn't bet money on it.

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Response to onenote (Reply #28)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 11:50 AM

relayerbob (5,806 posts)

29. Yawn

I called it in August 2015, it was obvious to me, since he was playing the stupid/racist cards. Other folks chose to believe that our country wasn’t loaded up with them. However, this isn’t 2015, and he’s toast. The big money will be going to DeSatan, trump won’t be a significant factor in anything except damaging the GQP.

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Response to onenote (Reply #28)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 05:50 PM

obnoxiousdrunk (2,744 posts)

37. +1. N/T

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Response to relayerbob (Original post)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 11:53 AM

relayerbob (5,806 posts)

30. See this report. This tells it like it is

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/donald-trumps-fake-2024-campaign-arrives-with-a-thud/47857/

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Response to relayerbob (Reply #30)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 12:25 PM

onenote (39,064 posts)

33. The Palmer Report.

I noted that it may be the case that predictions about Trump quitting before the first primary might be right, but wouldn't bet on it. If the Palmer Report is offering the same prediction, it's probably even less likely to happen.

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Response to relayerbob (Reply #30)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 05:55 PM

JCMach1 (27,041 posts)

39. RW elites do not BASE

I think it's a desperate hail Mary where he imagines he will pardon himself once elected.

So, in that since, it's very real.

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Response to relayerbob (Original post)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 12:45 PM

ZonkerHarris (22,063 posts)

34. He's going nowehere fast without the support of Fox News and the Murdochs

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Response to ZonkerHarris (Reply #34)

Wed Nov 16, 2022, 01:18 PM

relayerbob (5,806 posts)

36. This is pretty funny and very telling ....

"A crowd has formed by the exit of the ballroom as some try to leave Trump’s announcement speech before he has finished…. But security won’t let them."