Trump won't even make it to the first primary

[relayerbob]

Mark my words

[Freethinker65]

1. Depends if he is still getting free media attention and significant campaign donations

[walkingman]

11. Absolutely - as long as he benefits he continues. BTW - there is no jeopardy

for him from the DOJ. That is not the way our justice system works. The wealthy and powerful figured that out long ago. This is the real history of America that no one likes to admit.

[Hortensis]

32. Yes. Donations, free media exposure, ...

protection against becoming irrelevant.

Attention! Cheering crowds!

An identity as presidential candidate being targeted for political reasons is reportedly also seen as his big "defense" against his legal troubles since his legal defenses are almost nil. He's counting on outrage at his (their) persecution by "the establishment" to reenergize his populist base, court delays, etc. And it will work, just how much?

But agree that if he wanted nothing else, he wouldn't give up the donations and free media. He'd just campaign from the patio at Mar a Lago while he planned to become a TV character again, or something.

[at140]

2. When is the first primary?

I am guessing end of 2023?

[relayerbob]

6. Probably Feb 2024

[DemocraticPatriot]

7. Iowa caucus should be late January 2024, and New Hampshire primary

one week after that, if the usual schedules do not change....


However, there is pressure on the Democratic side to scramble the order of early primaries and caucuses--- but if President Biden runs for re-election, and has no 'significant' opposition, the pressure about changing early primary state dates would likely be deferred for another 4 years...

In any case, no national party can change dates of primaries that are mandated by state laws... so things are unclear at this early date.

[Better Days Ahoy]

15. I thought the Iowa caucus was going the way of all obsolete

And irrelevant concepts.
There was talk of ending these stupid exercises.

[Bettie]

19. I'm not even inclined to do the caucuses

this time around.

It requires hours and hours of work, training, and ultimately, it means less than nothing except the phone ringing constantly for nearly a year.

[at140]

42. Thank you for that information! nt

[nycbos]

3. That's what we said in 2016 and look what happened.

[relayerbob]

5. Absolutely not what I said ...

I said in August 2015, that he would win. The racists of the country would all be drawn out because of Obama and he would win be appealing to the lowest common denominator.

No longer. He now looks like a cockroach that has been sprayed but isn't quite dead yet. Flailing, flapping his wings, trying to look tough.

But it's over

[DemocraticPatriot]

8. He may not be "over" until he is defeated in another general election...

unless a "hero" comes out from the mist.. a messenger from God, I expect-- or the grim reaper...

[relayerbob]

9. He'll never see another election

With the possible exception ... if he runs as an independent. But that's even less likely

[DemocraticPatriot]

10. Maybe not. Maybe so.

But 2 years is a very long time, especially in politics. You may be right.

[BannonsLiver]

24. It's not 2016.

[Enter stage left]

4. I'm hoping by then they won't let him out of...

lock-up to campaign for anything.

[sarisataka]

12. Heard that before

Many other predictions as well that were equally accurate.

[MichMan]

13. How many Dems will cross over and vote for him?

[Kennah]

14. Imma gonna kill a goat or chicken or whatever in prayer to whomever for Trump to be the GOP nominee

[Tribetime]

44. 👍 + 10000

[GoCubsGo]

16. Probably not. The real question is

how much damage he does to his party before he drops out. May it be irreparable.

[relayerbob]

17. 100% agreed

[sarisataka]

21. Donald Trump is Democrats' greatest gift: Why his buffoonish politics threaten to bring down his ent

Donald Trump is Democrats’ greatest gift: Why his buffoonish politics threaten to bring down his entire party

The GOP embraced and enabled him at every turn. Now he's become a yoke they may not be able to shed before 2016

BILL HUMPHREY AND STEPHAN RICHTER, THE GLOBALIST

***
Rather, the problem emerged from the inside of the tent of the Republican Party. It is commonly called the “Donald Trump problem.”

The worst part for the Republicans is that Trump has the same effect as a Trojan horse. (Beware of the “Greeks” bearing gifts, Republicans of the United States!)

***

Outside of the 20% of voters who enthusiastically vote for Ross Perot types, people don’t love Trump. They love to hate him. They live to see his humiliation and failure, whether through his next bankruptcy (of which he has had quite a few) or in other venues.

Donald Trump may not win the nomination, but the Republicans will have a very hard time to rein him in or control him. To the Democrats’ great delight, he is setting the tone and terms of the race on the Republican side of the field.

https://www.salon.com/2015/07/10/donald_trump_is_democrats_greatest_gift_why_his_buffoonish_politics_threaten_to_bring_down_his_entire_party_partner/

[Johonny]

18. He has a non-zero chance of dropping dead long before then

He doesn't look well and you have to feel most in the GOP know his real health condition.

[Cosmocat]

20. They don't care one bit about his health

heck, most of them think he is a divine entity.

[Johonny]

35. I don't think the GOP will nominate a dead man

[at140]

43. He has gained weight and speech is slower than usual

This man does not look healthy and needs to retire to his Mar-a-Lago house.
He is not going to win nomination, and then his legacy will be 2 time loser.

[obnoxiousdrunk]

22. Tha's what I said

in 2015.

[BannonsLiver]

25. It's not 2015 anymore

Do you expect history to repeat itself every time? Are the circumstances that got Trump elected in 2016 the exact same as they are now 6 years later?

[relayerbob]

27. You weren't paying attention

It was quite obvious to me in 2015, that he would win. He was playing on racists and fools after 8 years of a competent Black man as President.

[sarisataka]

31. The day he announced his candidacy in 2015

I told my wife he would be the next President. I predicted Republicans would underestimate him and he would win the nomination. I said Democrats would then assume he could not possibly win and not take him seriously enough.

This time I am saying if he gets nominated and we do not take him seriously, he will win again.

[kentuck]

23. If there are more than two other Republicans running...

Trump will be their nominee.

The only way to defeat him in a primary is with a one-on-one primary.

I hate to think what will happen if there is another Trump presidency.

[relayerbob]

26. Nope

His announcement is an act of desperation, not strength. Assuming he’s not in GA state pen, or dead, he won’t be a factor in the GQP. As a third party candidate, he might be on the ballot, but the most likely GQPper is DeSatan.

[onenote]

28. If I had a nickel for every wrong prediction made on DU about Trump I'd be able to pay his lawyers

Going back in time to 2015, there have been predictions that:

Trump will drop out before the primaries.
Trump will drop out before the convention.
Trump will drop out after the convention.
Trump will drop out before the debates.
Trump will drop out after the debates
Trump will drop out before election day.
Trump will quit before inauguration day.
Trump will quit before a vote on impeachment
Trump will die before the end of his term.
Trump will flee the US right after Biden is inaugurated.
Trump will have to be physically removed from the White House.
And so on and so forth.

Folks misread him all the time. May be like a stopped clock, a prediction about Trump may finally be borne out, but I wouldn't bet money on it.

[relayerbob]

29. Yawn

I called it in August 2015, it was obvious to me, since he was playing the stupid/racist cards. Other folks chose to believe that our country wasn’t loaded up with them. However, this isn’t 2015, and he’s toast. The big money will be going to DeSatan, trump won’t be a significant factor in anything except damaging the GQP.

[obnoxiousdrunk]

37. +1. N/T

[relayerbob]

30. See this report. This tells it like it is

https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/donald-trumps-fake-2024-campaign-arrives-with-a-thud/47857/

[onenote]

33. The Palmer Report.

I noted that it may be the case that predictions about Trump quitting before the first primary might be right, but wouldn't bet on it. If the Palmer Report is offering the same prediction, it's probably even less likely to happen.

[JCMach1]

39. RW elites do not BASE

I think it's a desperate hail Mary where he imagines he will pardon himself once elected.

So, in that since, it's very real.

[ZonkerHarris]

34. He's going nowehere fast without the support of Fox News and the Murdochs

[relayerbob]

36. This is pretty funny and very telling ....

"A crowd has formed by the exit of the ballroom as some try to leave Trump’s announcement speech before he has finished…. But security won’t let them."

Link to tweet

[GoodRaisin]

38. This.

He’s toast.

[ZonkerHarris]

40. and the WSJ for the serious types. It's nice to own an empire.

[GoodRaisin]

41. Indeed.

Make the world however you want it to be.