All this "Trump feels like a joke now" is fine and good, except...

[Tommy Carcetti]

…that’s exactly what everyone was saying in June 2015.

Remember? He actually had to rent actors to play his supporters for his first announcement. That’s how much of a joke he was.

And most of our responses were either, “He’s just doing this as a publicity stunt and won’t make it to the primaries” or “I hope by some freak of nature he gets nominated because we will absolutely cream him in the 2016 general.”

And we all know how things turned out.

The one game changer?

Indictments.

If he gets indicted it will throw the dynamic completely off course.

But we need to get there first and not allow himself time fester and corrupt the process any further.

[Kaleva]

1. Indicting him may motivate his supporters and is no guarantee he'll be found guilty

Not saying he shouldn't but it may not be the game changer you think it might.

[calimary]

30. But then again, letting him get away and face no consequences doesn't work either.

[Bev54]

32. So are you saying that Garland should not indict?

I don't think many people have the stomachs to be held hostage by this bloated pus bucket any longer, he needs to be off the streets and in prison.

[Kaleva]

34. Reread the first sentence in my post

"Not saying he shouldn't..."

[Just_Vote_Dem]

2. Absolutely correct

People are joking about this like they did in 2015, and we all know what happened afterwards

[wnylib]

27. What happened afterwards is what

works against Trump this time around, particularly the J6 insurrection. He will always have his die hard base, but many others who voted for him have drifted away.

I do not advocate underestimating Trump. He can still create social and electoral chaos with his hard core followers. But he's a known quantity now, and a lot of people besides us don't like what they now know.

[PortTack]

43. Nailed it!

[Johnny2X2X]

3. He's still dangerous

But he's also a joke. He's going to destroy the GOP.

While the stakes are higher than ever, IO also think his campaign is doomed this time around.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Here is a very rough analogy

Mike Tyson was "the baddest man on the planet" but by the end of his career he was getting clowned in the ring by journeymen. It is likely TFG is done.

[calimary]

31. Oooooh, GOOD one!

He may indeed be done. But it’d be nice if he burned his own house down on the way out.

[Maeve]

4. There is also "experience"--we know more about him now

And a lot of folks won't get fooled again

[Probatim]

26. We - lots and lots of normal Americans - knew about him.

There were a large group of voters who weren't too knowledgeable about his stupidity and voted for him. That group of people won't get fooled again.

Sadly, this same group is likely to be fooled by DeSantis or Youngkin or one of the other "more likeable" assholes on the right.

[CrispyQ]

29. 11 million more people voted for him in 2020 than 2016, even after his disastrous Covid response. nt

[Maeve]

49. And even more voted against him eom

[Walleye]

5. I don't think we can relate this to 2015. There is no historical precedent for what he's doing

Even in the most recent history. Things are entirely different than they were in 2015. He’s talking about what he would do if he got in office. We should be talking about what he didn’t do when he was in office. Is America great again? What the hell is wrong with these people

[ProfessorGAC]

6. I Don't Think It's Comparable

In 2015, he was: an unknown quantity, an outsider, an incorruptible rich guy, a successful businessman, ...
Middle America, in large degree, no longer accepts that. That why 2018, 2020 & 2022 happened. It was a reaction to everything voters got wrong in 2016.
The moneyed interests will move on to another standard bearer and except for the 18% in the truly brainwashed category, Americans will move on from him.

[plimsoll]

25. He was known in 2015.

There has always been a huge gap between what he says about himself and what he's actually done. People who looked at his record understood that he was a conman, but he did get a hammer lock on 2 important GOP demographics the perpetually aggrieved and the bigots. I don't know if DeSantis can peel off enough of the perpetually aggrieved to beat Trump. Part of me hopes he can't, frankly DeSantis is a much more dangerous fascist than Trump.

[ProfessorGAC]

48. Not To Middle America

Sure, NYC or FL or NJ knew the disconnects.
But, much of America saw the name on buildings, (and didn't know about the failures), saw it on The Apprentice, and heard about his terribly flawed Forbes rating. (To this day, there are still people who think he's a billionaire. )
I'm not as convinced as you that he was a known quantity in '15 & '16.
It didn't take that many people in '16 to "give it a shot". He did lose the popular vote.
If he loses half of that relatively small number, he's toast.
One thing I will acknowledge is that the cult status is not necessarily transferable so, his acolytes, like DeSantis, isn't going to have the same appeal. That appeal may still be useful to the Rs.

[plimsoll]

50. Well I'm in Washington.

So about as far from those places as you can be in the continental US. The “liberal” media knew, as did the people in power at Faux, his shenanigans have been in the news for literally decades. So I’ll agree with you that there seems to have been a deliberate blackout of the his (ahem) abilities or lack there of, but it was known by the press and not adequately reported. He’s good for ratings, something they actually admitted.

[czarjak]

7. The Vlad Factor won't be the same?

[Aristus]

18. Vlad has his hands full losing a war and not getting ousted in a coup.

I do kind of wonder how many of his troll farm denizens were press-ganged into Vlad’s rotten war.

[honest.abe]

8. This one feels different.

I was not one of those who thought Trump had no chance in 2015. I saw him as a dangerous threat and we could not allow him to get anywhere near the WH. However this time Trump is different. He is being seen as an old burned out loser/criminal. His time has passed. He has serious competitors and wont make it past the first few primaries. However I still dont want him to be part of the process. He just causes chaos and sucks the media in every time. The sooner he is off the stage the better.

[ananda]

9. Yeah, after my misjudgment of 2016, I'm considering him dangerous...

until I'm sure he's not.

And that might be never.

[yankee87]

40. Always dangerous

Agree, never underestimate the stupidity of a mob

[gab13by13]

10. His announcement is intended for Merrick Garland.

[SKKY]

11. TFG has ZERO intention of actually winning the nomination...

...and winning a 2nd term. ZERO. He didn't look like he even believed the words Stephen Miller wrote for him. There are only 2 things he cares about right now:

1. Trying to use his status as a candidate to avoid any imminent indictments against him and his business.
2. Continue the grift and make as much money as possible from the stupid, blind, and idiotic MAGA nation.

[honest.abe]

12. I think you are correct.

He is doing a "hail mary" to at least potentially delay the indictments. Not sure it will work. And yes of course he needs to drain more money from his ignorant followers.

[JohnnyRingo]

13. And he lost 2016 by 3 million votes.

...and people hate Hillary. Then he lost 2020 by three times as much by an elderly gentleman and a black woman.

Donald Trump would be a gift to Democrats if he's on the ballot in 2024 and I don't care who we run.
He really hyped Herschel Walker last night, so let's see how much political capital he can really muster.

[Aviation Pro]

15. When Bloated Tick is indicted by DoJ the trial will go to DC

Where 92% of voters voted for President Biden.

Another fuck you to Motherfucker.

[Cosmocat]

16. He was not joke then and he most assuredly is not now

I told people THEN, countless times he was no joke, that he was a real threat to win the nomination because he embodied everything the party had become, and that if he did, this country was absolutely stupid enough to make him POTUS with all the bullshit that the D candidate will face (All of which happened).

And, he is in a STRONGER position now.

Rs have been teeth nashing over him ever since he came down the escalator, but for all their big talk the servile and weak, and always have and always will, bow to him when it comes time because he KNOWS that they will and how morally corrupt they are, which is his masters skill in knowing the darker elements of the human spirit and how to channel them.

Difference is that he is starting now already having penetrated, and controlling, the key party apparatuses, and has the starting point with the base.

Only things stopping him are a debilitating health issue or the outside chance he faces justice.

[Mr. Ected]

17. His base continues to be the greatest threat

He seems to have a Svengali-like effect on them, they number in the tens of millions, and the media will find every one of them and supply them with an open mike and an audience.

[JCMach1]

22. His base is still there and they are the majority of R voters

Don't forget that.

The party elites and oligarchs are trying to replace him... Going to fun to watch.

How soon they forget JEBtm...

[wysimdnwyg]

19. I'm more worried about DeSantis

My fear is that Trump's campaign will be used by the GOP as a counter to help make DeSantis look more mainstream. (Of course, we know he's anything but.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

20. I was feeling sanguine (if not a little smug) about TBL being a spent force politically.

A joke. An albatross. Maybe even someone to "prop up" to guarantee a victory in 2024.

But yesterday's speech snapped me out of that mood.

Unlike the "reviews" that dinged TBL for "not being Trump" or claimed he was low-energy or bored, I saw a guy who was focused on weaving a dangerous and sharply defined counter-narrative. A narrative loaded with falsehoods, to be sure, but well-targeted to those in his cult.

Populism is the greatest threat to liberal democracy and TFG hit all the dark notes that a demagogic populist could.

He framed the nation as one in decline, with a future of blood in the streets, unless he--the unique savior--comes to the rescue.

The "other" is us. "Joe Biden and the radical left" are the cause of all this nation's problems, is a theme he hammered.

Let's not underestimate this fascist maniac.

[relayerbob]

21. Not everyone thought that

I knew, and told people, in August 2015 he would be the winner in 2016. Reason? Backlash by racists and appeals to the lowest common denominator in people, combined with ruthlessness. Easy call to anyone watching historical trends.

Now, however, he's an old, sick fool and even the GQP nutjobs are backing away.

He won't even make it to the first primary.

[Whiskeytide]

23. He's now a joke for a different reason. In 2015, he was ...

… a joke because no one took his campaign seriously. That was before his true nature was revealed, and before the base rallied behind his populist message.

Now he is a joke because his true nature HAS been revealed. No one is failing to take his threat to America seriously now. Even a good percentage of the Republican Party is beginning to drift away from him. I heard Michael Schnitt dissing him the other day.

[catbyte]

24. The one big difference is that we all know what we're getting this time. Back in 2015-16, he

was an unknown and folks thought it might be "fun" and "exciting" to elect a non-politician. He ended up losing the popular vote twice and I can't see him ever winning the popular vote, and the EC will also be out of reach. I hope I'm right, but he appears to have become a toothless tiger at this point. The country is exhausted, even those who voted for him in 2020. His cult is probably thrilled, but the rest of us are exhausted just thinking of having to deal with that bottomless pit of need and ego.

What really concerns me are the traitors waiting in the wings to take his place. They are as craven and depraved as he is, their only goal is to achieve and then keep power. They have no principles and have absolutely no interest in doing anything for anyone other than their monied overlords but they're smarter about hiding their true agenda.

[chriscan64]

28. I would feel better if he was not running.

Yes, his chance of winning is small but a small non-zero chance is too much. I want a 0% chance that he ever gets near the levers of power again. Other gop candidates will have policies that are just as bad, but none of them are as pathologically unfit as he is.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

33. Think we need a whole new more savvy media strategy

Against him. One that might work ?

Hell, yesterday Weisselberg said he ORDERED him to break tax laws and not even a blip from us.

[vlyons]

44. Ridicule is the best strategy

Label him "Loser." Constantly refer to him and all his endorsements as losers. Never miss an opportunity to reference his losses in politics and in business.

loser loser loser

[LeftInTX]

35. I thought he was gonna announce a PAC or something last night

Ugh..You were right
Two years of his mug and rallies..

[Pepsidog]

36. Good points. Let's hope the tyrant rips apart the party. Rs have a real problem, either they all

jump on with TFG or they split into factions at which point it will be glorious watching them maul one another.

[FakeNoose]

37. What we know now that we didn't know in 2015:

- Most failed to realize how many big spenders were donating to Chump's campaign in 2015 (he kept it secret)
- Many New Yorkers knew what a liar he is, but the rest of the country really believed his BS. Now we know better.
- Most were surprised that he would totally bow to the QAnon conspiracy theorists, the racists, the Nazis, the Evangelists, and the incel crazies.
- It was kept under wraps for years that he'd been making millions from the Russian oligarchs buying condos.
- Even though he "published" best-selling books (written by other authors) for 30 years, he's incapable of composing a coherent tweet.
- Every word he utters is a self-serving lie.
- His only emotion is anger, his only motive is revenge against perceived enemies.
- For Chump, grifting is a multi-million dollar business, and his only profitable one at that.
- Every time he accuses someone else, we can be sure that accusation is exactly what Chump is doing or planning to do.
- "The Apprentice" show's ratings success - falsely accredited to Chump when he really had very little to do with it - gave him the ego-boost to run for the Presidency. Believing his own hype, Chump managed to convince others at his rallies in the Midwest and Southern states. Credit where it's due, Chump's rallies did get people excited to vote for him and follow him. That morphed into a crazy, brainless hero worship that defies description. But that bubble has burst. After 4 insane years of Chump in the White House, America can see now that he's nothing like the Boss on "The Apprentice." He's the guy that should have been fired first.

[sop]

38. Trump will definitely throw a wrench into the GOP's attempt to find another demagogue.

He's the Republican party's worst nightmare because Trump's rabid MAGA base will stick with him, no matter what.

[louis-t]

39. His own party is turning against him now. Finally.

Cowardly Republicans who remained silent while he did as much damage to this country as he could are suddenly a lot braver now that his power is diminished. They don't want him. I don't think he will be chosen again.

[sarisataka]

41. I looked up some DU posts from 2015

And it is amazing how many of the same things being said today were said seven years ago. Sometimes they are being repeated verbatim.

If we are so arrogant that we cannot learn to take every opponent seriously then we deserve the results.

[vlyons]

42. No, there's another game changer -- money

Money is what the GOP is all about. Murdoch and a lot of other billionaires are not throwing good money after bad. Their boy is now De Santis.

[sop]

47. I recall another popular Florida Governor was the Republican party's anointed one back in 2016.

"Jeb's unbeatable in the primaries, Trump is a joke," people said back then. Trump destroyed the entire Republican primary field and won the nomination. Then Democrats said he was unelectable. The rest is history.

[BannonsLiver]

45. A lot has happened since June 2015.

[Sky Jewels]

51. This.

[mountain grammy]

46. My feeling?

Garland is NOT going to indict.. if he was it would have happened by now.

And I would be happy to be proven wrong.. just any day now.

[Progressive dog]

52. Trump has to be indicted because

no one is supposed to be above the law.
No American who cares about democracy should worry about whether his indictment would help or hurt his electoral chances. If the indictment helps Trump gain votes then democracy is over. If he is not indicted democracy has ceased to exist anyway.