What will come from the Poland incident?

[ColinC]

Better air defense over Western Ukraine near Polish territory? More policing of Polish borders through patrols? F-15s to Ukraine? Or just business as usual?

[maxsolomon]

1. Business as usual

appears it was anti-missile defense from Ukraine.

[relayerbob]

2. Yep.

Continuation of current policies

[ColinC]

3. But as a result of the barrage of missiles on the west.

I imagine that a more robust western missile defense system on that side could have prevented the incident.

[Kennah]

4. There's a chance NATO will start overflying parts of Ukraine to guard against errant missiles

[ColinC]

5. Naturally Russia will call any action escalation to ww3

But this would be a very reasonable reaction. Simply protecting Lviv from missiles is in essence protecting Poland.

[Mordred]

8. Russia's Defense Ministry's quick denial

seems to indicate that Russia definitely has some trepidation over NATO retaliation/escalation in any direct attack of a NATO member nation.

Sadly no hesitation in attacking civilians and societal infrastucture.

[ColinC]

9. Yep. Which is why I don't think direct involvement would create any war

It would just prevent more deaths.

[Chainfire]

6. It has been tamped down. Not much will happen.

[ColinC]

7. I'm hoping better security over the border

Patrols over western Ukraine would be smart imho

[Emrys]

10. Maybe a (diplomatic) shot across Putin's bows impressing that he can't just hammer Ukraine

with mass missile strikes without making the neighbours, and NATO, a tad jumpy. War crimes have consequences.

That coupled with upgrading Ukraine's air defences by whatever means so that it's not reliant on archaic, if destructive, and unpredictable ex-Russian weaponry.

[sarisataka]

12. I'm not sure what we could give as a replacement

The S-300 (SA-10) is considered one of the most effective anti air systems in the world today.

Our Patriot system is superior, it is far more complex and isn't that something you can just deliver and expect people to know how to use. It has a steep learning curve.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

13. Looks like Ukraine will soon be getting older-gen HAWK missiles out of US military storage,

plus four similar HAWK systems that Spain provided in October.

[Emrys]

14. The Ukrainian troops have proven very able and quick learners.

The issue is more likely to be supply rather than skill in deployment.

There has also been hesitancy in supplying Patriots to Ukraine (it's actually requested them) for the usual fear of winding up the Russian federation. That may seem arse about face, as there'd be no need for them if the RF stopped indiscriminate bombing (under the guise of going after infrastructure), but that's the diplomatic-military space we've been in.

This may be a self-limiting problem given the RF's depleting stocks of missiles, the Ukrainians' success in shooting them down with the systems they already have, and the constant pushback of fronts where the RF can deploy missiles.

Here's one rundown from the Center for Strategic and International Studies on what's available at the moment: https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-united-states-do-more-ukrainian-air-defense

[sarisataka]

11. Probably not much that we will see or hear about

Maybe some more air defenses to Ukraine, NATO moving some anti air units closer to the border which may possibly engage missiles that are getting too close.

Poland will probably move more forces towards Kaliningrad and Belarus to watch the borders.

Publicly we will only see some condemnations and an announcement of more aid for Ukraine

[ColinC]

16. I mean more of the same is also not a bad thing

We need general reminders for what all of the resources we are providing Ukraine are going to. Sustained support cannot be taken for granted.

[doc03]

15. I don't think Ukraine ever got those MIGs from Poland. nt

[ColinC]

17. Maybe they will now?