How many seats will the Dems have??

[ColinC]

AP projection from google provides 212 seats called for Dems. It appears they did not call CA34 which is a Dem V Dem race. They also did not call Alaska, which nobody doubts is going to Peltola. This puts Dems at 214 unless google messed up?

(Dave Wasserman put the most likely outcome at 213)


Update: AP does add CA34 to their count for Dems. This puts Dems at 213 if no other seats change hands.

[brooklynite]

1. Dems will pick up 2 more; 3 if Boebert seat flips.

We'll take Alaska and California 34 (both candidates are D); Republicans will take CA-3, and CA-22. MAYBE CA-13 is competitive (down by 800).

[Polybius]

17. Boebert's seat is not flipping

I know of no recounts that have ever overturned a 500+ vote lead in a Congressional race.

[eppur_se_muova]

2. CA(13) is still close, but leans R. CO(3) will likely be a recount.

216 is pretty much the absolute maximum the Dems could get, with two lucky breaks. 215 is reasonably likely, 214 a lock at this point.

[brush]

4. So that means the repubs have how many?

Meaning all those bat shit crazy repubs like evil but dumb MTG will be able to play Manchin whenever they want because votes will be so close and McCarthy can't control them?

[emulatorloo]

6. I doubt Manchin is a fan of MTG. Besides seems doubtful the R House will produce any legislation,

They are too interested in dumb investigations to legislate.

[brush]

7. Manchin being a fan of MTG has nothing to do with her...

playing obstructionist because her vote, along with others, may be the difference in close votes. Funding bills still have to be passed just to run the government, an opportunity to wring concessions from McCarthy on committee assignments, investigations, impeachments. In fact, MTG already is after McCarthy to investigate Nancy Pelosi for allegedly poor treatment of J6 insurrectionists in the DC jails, believe it or not.

[emulatorloo]

12. Yeah I saw that she asked Scalise to investigate. Whether DU likes him or not, Manchin is a

Democrat. It is clearly part of his self-identify. He voted for Obamacare, and he stopped its repeal. He worked hard on IRA of 2022 and decimated a fox host when she came at him hard with lies about it.

I am not a fan of Manchin, but I dont ever see him as some patsy for deranged MAGA Republicans.

I have a different view of how the R Controlled house will work out than several DU’ers.

I believe (naively maybe) that Dems will find a few normal Republicans (5 or so depending on the final number) to block the most egregious legislation the so-called Freedom Caucus vomits out.

[brush]

13. Oops. Sorry, I replied to the wrong post.

[emulatorloo]

14. That's ok, it happens!

Just edited my reply to clarify my position better, so I appreciate it.

[brush]

15. Hope you're right. The next two years will be a challenge.

[eppur_se_muova]

8. 435 minus whatever the Dems get.

It seems there is still confusion about CA(34), which has two Dems only -- different Web sites have/have not already included this in their total, but then don't mark it as blue. So it's not clear what the current total is! NBC, maddeningly, gives only their projection, not total actually called.

I think 215-220 is likely; I would love to see 216-219, giving Rs only one vote over the majority. But it seems unlikely we'll be that lucky.

[brush]

9. Thank you. It's not what we wanted but sure beats a red wave.

[Polybius]

19. They will get at least 221, possibly 222

They have 218 now. They are solidly ahead in two more, one will go to a recount that they will win (Boebert's CO race), and one they are ahead by just 0.66%. That would be 222 if they take them all. The only other uncalled race besides Alaska (we'll win easily) is CA District 34. We lead by 3.22%.

[Polybius]

20. 221 or 222

See post 19.

[Maraya1969]

3. So let me get this straight. 435 is the total number of seats in Congress

If Dems get 213
Then the GOP 222 ?

That is a much higher difference than I thought. Or are there still vacant seats?


Also is it harder for the GOP to do whatever they want to do if the margin is smaller?

[JohnSJ]

5. Your math is about right. The question is are there 9 republicans in the House who will work, or

vote with Democrats to prevent the complete takeover of the crazies in the House?

While the number for republican seats is higher than many of us hoped, it is still a heck of a lot better than the 20-30 seats that the so-called experts were predicting.

The one hope that exists is that there were seats republicans won in traditionally Democratic districts who were NOT election deniers. What will they do?

[ProfessorGAC]

10. For A Bit Of Bright Light,...

...a 9 seat majority means only 5 Rs need to cross over, not all 9. Then it would be 218-217 at the vote.

[Maraya1969]

11. So we just have to pay them like they did for Sinema and Manchin.

Did I say that?

[JohnSJ]

16. +++

[Demsrule86]

18. I bet we could get some of those Democrats from CA and NY to turn Democratic if we work it.

[brooklynite]

21. Did you mean "Republicans"?

[onenote]

22. No legislation that is opposed by 200 Republicans is going to pass

Indeed, no such legislation is going to ever come to the floor for a vote. It will die in committee.

During the 117th Congress, most bills that passed actually had substantial bipartisan support (between 100 and 200 republicans). But on high profile bills that were Democratic priorities -- Infrastructure, election reform, etc. -- it was rare to get more than a handful of Republican votes, if any. Case in point: the election reform bill got 9 Republican votes. All nine of those Republicans were defeated in primaries or retired. None of them are going to be in the 118th Congress. And its unlikely that any newly elected republicans are going to go up against party leadership to support legislation oppoosed by 200 Republicans.