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Polybius

(15,334 posts)
Mon Nov 21, 2022, 03:49 PM Nov 2022

Here is the status of the 5 uncalled House races (NY Times)

According to the NY Times, Republicans have clinched 218 members of the House. Other sites say 219, and project Kevin Kiley the winner (where he is leading Kermit Jones by 10,000 votes). Still, I'll go by the NYT model.

California 22nd
David Valadao *incumbent Republican 52.7%
Rudy Salas Democrat 47.3%
86% reporting

California 3rd
Kevin Kiley Republican 52.1%
Kermit Jones Democrat 47.9%
71% reporting

California 13th
John Duarte Republican 50.34%
Adam Gray Democrat 49.66%
95% reporting

Colorado 3rd
Lauren Boebert *incumbent Republican 50.08%
Adam Frisch Democrat 49.92%
95% reporting (other sites say 99%) pending recount

Alaska At Large
Mary Peltola* incumbent Democrat 48.7%
Sarah Palin Republican 25.8%
Nick Begich Republican 23.4%
95% reporting, pending ranked choice on November 23

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/10/us/elections/results-house-seats-elections-congress.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc®ion=NavBar

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regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)
5. I'm not sure Alaska's looking so good for us, TBH...
Mon Nov 21, 2022, 05:34 PM
Nov 2022

Due to ranked-choice voting, the only way we win is if at least 10% of Begich’s voters picked the Democratic incumbent as their second choice over his fellow Republican.

tinrobot

(10,885 posts)
7. Begich was basically the anti-Palin candidate, I suspect his voters won't go to her.
Mon Nov 21, 2022, 05:38 PM
Nov 2022

Very good chance we'll get more than 10%

muriel_volestrangler

(101,265 posts)
12. In the special election a few months ago, Peltola got nearly 30% of Begich's transferred votes
Tue Nov 22, 2022, 06:22 AM
Nov 2022
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election

https://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/22SSPG/RcvDetailedReport.pdf

Begich got 53,810 votes in the first round; 27,053 transferred to Palin, and 15,467 to Peltola (over 11,000 didn't give a 2nd choice). I think Peltola should win comfortably.

MichMan

(11,868 posts)
4. A concession is no more than a statement
Mon Nov 21, 2022, 05:03 PM
Nov 2022

That being said, I dont believe there has ever been a recount in a district that has overcome a lead of that magnitude

SoCalDavidS

(9,998 posts)
8. I Realize DU Only Thinks Good Thoughts
Mon Nov 21, 2022, 06:16 PM
Nov 2022

But wouldn't a candidate know better what their chances are. I doubt he would have conceded unless he felt there was no chance of overcoming the deficit.

DemocraticPatriot

(4,306 posts)
11. It seems that California enacting an anti-gerrymandering law,
Tue Nov 22, 2022, 12:29 AM
Nov 2022

was a case of "uni-lateral disarmament" ??


I only supported the Michigan anti-gerrymandering initiative because the Republicans had mostly controlled the legislature for the past 40 years, and in "fair" districts we had a better result here, with Democrats seizing "the trifecta" in this election, finally...


Democrats believe in "fair elections".... sometimes, we are too good for our own good...


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