California and New York
The Democrats not being able to gerrymander the hell out these states while Republicans are able to gerrymander Texas and Florida is really a big problem. Democrats would be in the majority with about 225 seats at least . Dumbest thing the people in Cal and NY have done. Yes independent redistricting commissions are a good thing and should be how all states operate, but you can’t unilaterally disarm when the other side doesn’t.
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Biden will win the popular and electoral vote in 2024. However the GOP will use it’s control of state legislatures and congress to overturn the Electoral College and steal the election, thereby achieving their long-term goal of minority rule.
Shortly thereafter, many people in California will say; “we have over 10 percent of the population and economy bigger than that of France or England. But we're still taking orders from a bunch of old, white rednecks who think the earth is 6,000 years old.” A pro-independence referendum will pass and California will declare itself an independent nation, but there won't be a war. California will simply cease to participate in the federal government. Californians will be told that they do not have to pay federal income tax or obey federal laws, only California laws will be enforced. Federal employees can sit in their office and not be bothered, but any action they take will be simply ignored by the people and California government.
There is precedent for this type of passive non-cooperation. When Colorado legalized the recreational use of marijuana, it did so despite federal law prohibiting it. When the federal government was faced with the choice of either enforcing federal law or simply accepting Colorado’s decision, it chose the latter. The federal government could not prosecute the entire state of Colorado, and it certainly cannot prosecute the 40 million people in California.
Following California’s success New York and New England will join together and declare the northeast to be independent.
The south will happily agree to the succession of California and the northeast since they will now be rid of those godless coastal liberal elites. The south will then be able to establish what they have always wanted; a theocracy where all laws are based on extreme Christian fundamentalism, a Baptist Taliban.
The other states will align themselves according to their interests. The final result will be something like the following map.
She came within a hair of loosing to a right wing loon. Why? Because the commission changed her district from a blue district to a red one. CA 47 was a relatively normal oval shaped district that was +6 Dem, that had relatively balanced coastal and inland areas. But after 2020, they totally changed the district into a weird albatross shape where the wings were the very white, very rich beach areas of Orange County going from Seal Beach to Huntington Beach to San Clemente. And the head of the albatross was the only part that poked inland, and only far enough inland to cover Katie Porter's house in Irvine. It's like McConnell or McCarthy drew the damn thing. It is a miracle Katie Porter eeked out a win. It is a testament to what a fantastic candidate she is, and what a loyal group of supporters she has, like me. I went knocking on doors for her during a heatwave in Republican Huntington Beach and it absolutely sucked. I was so worried she'd lose, considering how many hostile Republicans answered the doors. We need to disband that commission.
CA-47's lines are NEW.
Are you denying the commission took our star representive from a blue district to a red district?
Yes, she represented a blue district that included her house in Irvine. Then that fucked up commission created a new district that had a rather ODD shape--all rich white beach towns except the little head of the albatross that went in to cover her house in Irvine. Why the fuck did they do that?
And why the fuck is the commission only 1/3 Democrats----in California?!
And you claim to be from Orange County?
And accuse *me* of gaslighting?
She beat incumbant Democrat Harley Rouda, turning our district red with 50.95% of the vote, when Seal Beach was in CA-48. https://www.ocregister.com/2020/11/03/early-election-results-show-harley-rouda-with-edge-over-michelle-steel-in-tight-race-for-48th-district/ But Steel is now in an even redder district. For 2022, the CA Redistricting Commission put her in newly drawn CA-45, where she was declared the winner, beating Democrat Jay Chen 52.4 to 47.6 at last count, a much higher margin than she had with Rouda
Seal Beach is 39.4% registered Republicans to only 36.7% registered Democrats.
https://ocvote.gov/datacentral/
Our City Council is very Republican. They have "In God We Trust" emblazoned over their seats in the the City Council chambers. And our police department has a big Blue Lives Matter flag painted on its station wall. And a big chunk of the Seal Beach population consists of the very conservative elderly residents of Leisure World. The city's nickname is "Mayberry by the Sea." The reason BLM & Long Beach based Caravan4Justice came here on August 29, 2020, to protest was because a newly arrived black resident was getting his front door pelted with eggs and nasty notes by the locals, and the police hadn't managed to stop the harrassment.
The CA Redistricting Commission is dominated by members who act like conservatives, whether they call themselves that or not. People have to be judged by their actions. These Commission members redrew OC to put Michelle Steel in a safer district, while screwing Katie Porter.
Your own logic fails if you contend that adding Seal Beach to Porters district puts "Michelle Steel in a safer district, while screwing Katie Porter."
But whatever.
Ok
Seal Beach has common interest to Long Beach as both are beach towns with tourists, and their residents shop in each other's town, and many Long Beach kids go to school in Seal Beach/Los Alamitos. That is why Seal Beach was always listed in the Long Beach Coastal phone book (that picture is my phone book) and was always in a congressional district with Long Beach, until now. Irvine was not in a congressional district with Seal Beach before the conservative majority commission tacked it on to conservative Seal Beach and even more conservative Huntington Beach. How "integral" could Seal Beach be to Irvine if it wasn't in its district before?
The two towns don't even share a border. Irvine is in central inland OC, a town of business and industrial parks, and planned developments filled with young professionals. Irvine does not rely on tourism. Seal Beach is an old, white, rich beach town. Seal Beach relies on tourism. The two towns do not have any common interest, other than both have a large white population. The commission screwed Porter.
If that was not your desire, you sure spent a lot of energy trying to insist that it had to happen.
Last edited Thu Nov 24, 2022, 01:11 AM - Edit history (2)
Only 5 of the 14 commissioners on CA's redistricting commission are Democrats---in a state where Republicans comprise less than 30% (23.9% as of June 2022) of the electorate. It is totally back asswards!
This is the postmortem of the House results by Brookings following the 2016 election.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2017/02/22/misrepresentation-in-the-house/
As you can see, Republicans got 50.6% of the votes, but 55.4% of the seats. That is the "simple mathematical fact" I'm talking about.
I haven't seen a similar study for the 2022 election. Votes are still being counted in California so I imagine there won't be any definitive studies for a while. Where are you getting that "51% of the votes got them 51% of the seats" figures from?
video at link:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/illinois-may-be-the-worst-democratic-gerrymander-in-the-country/
Illinois’s aggressive gerrymander is a big part of the reason Democrats have gained seats from redistricting nationwide this year. But it could also backfire. In order to draw so many blue seats, Democrats had to spread their voters thin, leaving some districts with only a small Democratic lean. If Republicans have a strong 2022 election, they could end up winning not only their three safely red seats but also those light-blue seats. This gerrymander could end up being the biggest blunder in Illinois since Mrs. O’Leary’s cow knocked over that lantern.
To be sure, this map will most likely help Democrats in their quest to hold onto the House. But it’s also possible that they’ve bitten off more than they can chew.
on edit: article & video from may 2022
