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brooklynite

(94,517 posts)
Thu Dec 1, 2022, 07:27 PM Dec 2022

Prediction: New Hampshire still goes first

Michigan has a Primary. Governor Whitmer and the Democratic Legislature would be happy to move up the date. However, New Hampshire law requires the SoS to move the date to be at least 7 days before any other State's Primary (Iowa had a pass because they hold a Caucus). The Republican Governor and the Republican legislature will have no incentive to change the law for the sake of the Democrats.

I'll add that there will STILL be an Iowa Caucus (for Republicans only) before the NH Primary.

19 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Prediction: New Hampshire still goes first (Original Post) brooklynite Dec 2022 OP
New Hampshire does not reflect the demographics of the Democratic Party LetMyPeopleVote Dec 2022 #1
That's true, but that won't make NH change the date of its primary. Ocelot II Dec 2022 #2
The DNC can strip New Hampshire of their delegates LetMyPeopleVote Dec 2022 #4
The last tweet is inaccurate. former9thward Dec 2022 #6
You are WRONG LetMyPeopleVote Dec 2022 #12
Why did you delete the facts which prove you are WRONG? former9thward Dec 2022 #13
Thank you for the laughs LetMyPeopleVote Dec 2022 #14
Everyone who was part of the process knew at the time the delegates would count in the end. former9thward Dec 2022 #16
I am well aware of the DNC rules and the rules of many state parties LetMyPeopleVote Dec 2022 #17
Everyone who reads these posts can see where you deleted information from your citations. former9thward Dec 2022 #18
Do you ever tire of being WRONG? LetMyPeopleVote Dec 2022 #19
The NHDP can choose to ignore the results of the Primary and hold a Caucus at their own expense. brooklynite Dec 2022 #3
Hopefully all caucuses will be abolished LetMyPeopleVote Dec 2022 #5
Caucuses were recently abolished in my state, MN, Ocelot II Dec 2022 #15
It doesn't, but in combination with the other early states... W_HAMILTON Dec 2022 #7
Not many states do. What does being first, especially with the method used in Iowa ... marble falls Dec 2022 #10
But the DNC could refuse to accept the NH delegates Fiendish Thingy Dec 2022 #8
Would you risk NH's electoral votes? brooklynite Dec 2022 #9
I guess it will depend on how badly Biden wants to shake things up. Fiendish Thingy Dec 2022 #11

LetMyPeopleVote

(145,168 posts)
1. New Hampshire does not reflect the demographics of the Democratic Party
Thu Dec 1, 2022, 07:46 PM
Dec 2022

A 90%+ white state does not reflect the demographics of the party

former9thward

(31,997 posts)
6. The last tweet is inaccurate.
Thu Dec 1, 2022, 09:07 PM
Dec 2022

Apparently the tweeter was not "old enough" to remember the convention. Michigan did not have its delegates stripped. The DNC originally gave each delegate a half vote. Then before the convention started the DNC gave the delegation its full voting rights,

LetMyPeopleVote

(145,168 posts)
12. You are WRONG
Fri Dec 2, 2022, 02:43 AM
Dec 2022

I remember the 2008 convention fight very well. I was on the Obama voter protection team and we were successful in using the caucus part of the Texas two-step to help President Obama win the most Texas delegates despite losing the primary to then Senator Clinton.

Here are the facts as to Michigan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Michigan_Democratic_presidential_primary

However, the Democratic National Committee determined that the date of the Michigan Democratic Primary violated the party rules and ultimately decided to sanction the state, stripping all 156 delegates and refusing to seat them at the convention. Despite this, the Michigan Supreme Court ruled that the primary could go ahead as scheduled.[2] The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee later met on May 31, 2008, and agreed to seat all of Michigan's delegates with each delegate receiving half of a vote.[3] As a result of this compromise, Michigan had 78 votes at the convention. On August 24, the delegates had full voting rights restored.[4].....

The decision of the DNC diminished the significance of the Michigan Democratic Primary.[1] On October 9, 2007, following Michigan's breach of DNC rules, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, and John Edwards withdrew from the Michigan Democratic Primary ballot.[8] Dennis Kucinich unsuccessfully sought to remove his name from the ballot.[9] Hillary Clinton and Christopher Dodd decided to remain on the ballot.[10] Although Clinton said she would honor a pledge that she and the other Democratic candidates had earlier made to refrain from campaigning or participating in Michigan,[10] Clinton and Dodd drew sharp criticism from Biden, who stated that the two candidates had "chosen to hedge their bets" and had "abandoned Democrats in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina" by staying on the ballot.[10][11].....

In late May, attention focused on the upcoming May 31, 2008, meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) of the Democratic National Committee (DNC). The RBC would choose whether to assign seats to Florida and Michigan delegates for the Democratic National Convention. (The convention itself could change the seating.) During the period before the RBC meeting, 22 uncommitted delegates pledged their support to Obama should they be seated at the convention.[32]

On May 31, 2008, the RBC voted 19-8 to seat all of Michigan's delegates with each receiving half a vote. The resolution allocated 69 pledged delegates for Hillary Clinton and 59 pledged delegates for Barack Obama, resulting in these pledged delegate votes:[33]

Clinton: 34.5
Obama: 29.5


The same thing happened to Florida
https://dbpedia.org/page/2008_Florida_Democratic_presidential_primary

The 2008 Florida Democratic presidential primary took place on January 29, 2008. Originally, the state had 185 delegates up for grabs that were to be awarded in the following way: 121 delegates were to be awarded based on the winner in each of Florida's 25 congressional districts while an additional 64 delegates were to be awarded to the statewide winner. Twenty-five unpledged delegates, known as superdelegates, were initially able to cast their votes at the Democratic National Convention. However, the Democratic National Committee determined that the date of the Florida Democratic Primary violated the party rules and ultimately decided to sanction the state, stripping all 210 delegates and refusing to seat them at the convention. The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee later met on May 31, 2008, and agreed to seat all of Florida's delegates with each delegate having only receive half a vote. As a result of this compromise, Florida's delegation had 105 votes at the convention. (en)

The DNC had the power and in effect strip all of the delegates from Michigan and Florida. As a compromise the DNC restored one-half of the votes for the delegates in these states. The DNC has the right under the rules to punish states who do not follow the rules.

Texas was forced to give up the Texas Two Step in 2016 by the DNC
https://www.texastribune.org/2015/07/07/texplainer-whats-texas-two-step-and-why-it-gone/
The two-step had garnered complaints, especially after the 2008 election. Barack Obama’s campaign informed voters of the caucus’ importance, so they turned out to support him. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, but because of the primary/caucus hybrid, Obama won more presidential delegates and claimed victory in Texas, leading some to call the system undemocratic. Additionally, the popularity of the 2008 election brought thousands of new voters to the caucuses and overwhelmed the voting process, strengthening the case against the Texas system. Some have also criticized the two-step for discriminating against the elderly, soldiers and others who cannot physically come to a caucus.

But Democratic Party leaders in Texas wanted to keep the two-step because they say it encourages voter engagement. When manpower determines who wins the caucus delegates, supporters have an incentive to turn out in large numbers. “Our argument is that we see a lot more participation and a lot more party building when people would actually come to the caucuses in person,” said former state Rep. Glen Maxey, who now works for the Texas Democratic Party.

The change wasn’t a complete surprise. Texas Democratic Party leaders say the system has been on thin ice for a while. The Texas system was grandfathered in and DNC officials had been telling the state for years it would have to choose either a primary or a caucus. Texas applied for a waiver for the 2008 and 2012 elections to keep the two-step. Maxey traveled to Washington, D.C., last month to advocate for the hybrid system in front of a DNC rules committee, but the request was denied.

The Obama team brought down people from the Iowa caucuses to train Obama delegates as to how to play the caucus system which helped Obama end up with the most Texas delegates even though Hillary Clinton won the primary.

former9thward

(31,997 posts)
13. Why did you delete the facts which prove you are WRONG?
Fri Dec 2, 2022, 11:39 AM
Dec 2022
On August 24, the delegates had full voting rights restored.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Michigan_Democratic_presidential_primary

That is from YOUR citation which YOU did not post. Why? Do you really think people can't read?

Full voting rights restored to Florida and Michigan

DENVER, Colorado (CNN) - In another bid to restore party unity, the Democratic National Committee voted unanimously Sunday to restore full convention voting rights to Florida and Michigan delegates.

The move, which had been sought by former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton since shortly after the primary season began, was endorsed by presumptive nominee Barack Obama last month.

https://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/24/full-voting-rights-restored-to-florida-and-michigan/

LetMyPeopleVote

(145,168 posts)
14. Thank you for the laughs
Fri Dec 2, 2022, 12:17 PM
Dec 2022

I have been active in politics/voter protection for a long time and was a Clinton delegate to the 2016 Convention. We were expecting a floor fight on a number of issues and the Clinton campaign had a "whipping infrastructure" in place. Luckily these floor fights were avoided but it was my whip who warned me about the planned stunts by the Sanders delegates to boo John Lewis, Elijah Cummings and others and who informed me that Nina Turner had been blocked from speaking at the convention. It is clear that you do not understand how the convention process works in the real world.

I was involved in a Texas democratic party credentials fight for my county delegates urged by the Clinton campaign. Two days before the Texas convention, Hillary Clinton conceded to President Biden and the Clinton campaign withdrew the credential challenge. The Texas Two-Step resulted in Senator Clinton winning the primary but President Obama getting the most delegates because the Obama team trained the caucus attendees as to how to maximize results in the caucus. The Obama campaign brought trainers from the Iowa caucuses to train Obama supporters in ways to game the caucus process. I attended one of these trainings and organized my local county convention. Caucuses can be gamed.

The key is that after Senator Clinton conceded, these credentials contests were moot. My middle child was a chaperone for a group of high school kids who attended the Denver convention. She remembers this fight and it was clear that there were a number of steps taken at the convention to strengthen party unity. My middle child got to watch President Obama give his acceptance speech with the high students being chaperoned.

Both Florida and Michigan each had all of their delegates stripped and later they were awarded only half delegates. https://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/01/us/politics/01rules.html

To jeers and boos that showcased deep party divisions, Democratic Party officials agreed Saturday to seat delegates from the disputed Florida and Michigan primaries at the party’s convention in August but give them only half a vote each, dealing a setback to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.

The agreement, reached by the rules committee of the Democratic National Committee behind closed doors and voted on publicly before a raucous audience of supporters of the two candidates, would give Mrs. Clinton a net gain of 24 delegates over Senator Barack Obama. But this fell far short of her hopes of winning the full votes of both delegations and moved the nomination further out of her reach.

She now lags behind Mr. Obama by about 176 delegates, according to The New York Times’s tally, in the final weekend of campaigning before the nominating contests end.

Mrs. Clinton, who led the voting in the Michigan and Florida contests, which were held in defiance of party rules, picked up 19 delegates more than Mr. Obama in Florida and 5 delegates more than Mr. Obama in Michigan.

At the Convention and after Senator Clinton had conceded the full voting rights may have been restored because the votes of the delegates no longer made a difference. This was a move for party unity and does NOT negate the fact that the DNC had the full power to punish a state who violates DNC rules. Again, you are WRONG in your claims.

The key issue is that the DNC can strip New Hampshire of its delegates if New Hampshire holds an early primary in violation of the then current DNC rules.

Attending a national convention can be an amazing experience. The 2016 Convention was not fun other than the chance to meet John Lewis and others at events. My youngest child got a guest pass for the first night and got to hear Michelle Obama speak which was amazing.

former9thward

(31,997 posts)
16. Everyone who was part of the process knew at the time the delegates would count in the end.
Fri Dec 2, 2022, 02:04 PM
Dec 2022

You might not have but .... The DNC has the power to cancel the convention but they are not going to do that either.

LetMyPeopleVote

(145,168 posts)
17. I am well aware of the DNC rules and the rules of many state parties
Fri Dec 2, 2022, 03:48 PM
Dec 2022

In getting ready for the 2016 National Convention, I read the rules of each state party on some issues for the 2016 convention in part because of the expected floor fights that luckily never occurred. Again, I was an actual delegate to the 2016 convention and had fun reading the actual platform (one of my friends was on the platform committee). Thank you for the laughs but it is clear that you were WRONG in your amusing claims.

The statement you about everyone knew that the Florida and Michigan delegates would count in the end amuses me. After the concession by then Senator Clinton, the voting rights of Florida and Michigan were restored as a way to motivate voters in these states. The restored voting rights of the Florida and Michigan delegations were meaningless in that President Obama was going to be the nominee. The contest as to who was going to be the nominee was over when the decision to count the votes of the Florida and Michigan delegates was made. President Obama did go on to win both Florida and Michigan in the 2008 election. States like Iowa and New Hampshire do NOT have the electoral power to violate the DNC rules.

The DNC does indeed have a great deal of power with respect to conventions. I have some friends who were "delegates" to the 2020 convention that ended up being a virtual convention. The Texas delegation was supposed to be at hotels in Chicago near the airport and would have had 2-hour commute to and from the convention each day. The DNC was able to change to rules to make it a virtual convention with votes by internet. We did the same thing for the Texas state democratic convention. I had the fun of being on a 3 hour zoom call for the Rules Committee for the Texas convention.

Again, if either Iowa or New Hampshire want to violate the decision of the DNC as to primary dates, these states will be dealt with by the DNC. It is likely that both states would lose their voting rights at the National Convention. No one will really care if Iowa voters are upset in that Iowa is a deep red state now.

I strongly support NOT having two 90%+ white states having too big of a role in the selection of the Democratic nominee. Neither Iowa nor New Hampshire reflect the demographics of the party.

Again, thank you the laughs. Your claims on this thread were WRONG.

former9thward

(31,997 posts)
18. Everyone who reads these posts can see where you deleted information from your citations.
Fri Dec 2, 2022, 04:20 PM
Dec 2022

Information which contradicted your claims.

LetMyPeopleVote

(145,168 posts)
19. Do you ever tire of being WRONG?
Fri Dec 2, 2022, 05:08 PM
Dec 2022

All of your claims have been shown to be WRONG. Thank you for the laughs. Again, the DNC sanctioned both Florida and Michigan for violating DNC rules by stripping both states of ALL of these states' delegates. The DNC later agreed to restore the delegates of these states with only one-half of a vote. After then Senator Clinton conceded and the nomination contest was decided in favor of President Obama, the full voting power was restored because such voting power was meaningless.

I faced a similar issue when we had a credentials committee fight/protest for my county's delegations to the Texas state convention. A couple of days before the 2008 Texas Democratic Convention, then Senator Clinton conceded, and the credentials committee dismissed the dispute because it was moot. The restored votes of the Michigan and Florida delegations occurred at the Convention after the contest was decided and so these votes were in effect meaningless. The restoration of the full voting power of these delegations would have only mattered if the nomination contest was still in doubt. That is NOT what happened in the real world

Again, the point of this thread is that if New Hampshire or Iowa try to violate DNC rules, the DNC has the power to punish these states. Given that neither state is critical to an electoral college win by the President Biden or the Democratic nominee, these punishments should, and I believe would be enforced. Michigan's and Florida's delegations were punished in 2008 and the votes of these delegations was only restored after the contest had been decided.

Again, thank you for the amusement. Your claims are WRONG.

LetMyPeopleVote

(145,168 posts)
5. Hopefully all caucuses will be abolished
Thu Dec 1, 2022, 08:51 PM
Dec 2022

Last edited Fri Dec 2, 2022, 02:47 AM - Edit history (1)

I worked on the Obama voter protection team in 2008 when Texas had the Texas two step. 75% of the delegates were selected in primary and the rest in caucuses held the night of the general election. Hillary Clinton won the primary but President Obama got the most Texas delegates due to the caucuses. The DNC has abolished the Texas two step and is look at abolishing caucuses elsewhere


Ocelot II

(115,683 posts)
15. Caucuses were recently abolished in my state, MN,
Fri Dec 2, 2022, 01:41 PM
Dec 2022

and we've gone back to holding primaries. Caucuses were kind of interesting events but they were time-consuming and ended up excluding a lot of people who were unable for various reasons to participate. The original reason for them was to bring in citizens and allow them to participate in the work of the party, but in recent years they were often dominated by activist factions that wasted a lot of time pushing their pet issues, some of which were kind of fringe. I'm glad we're doing primaries instead.

W_HAMILTON

(7,864 posts)
7. It doesn't, but in combination with the other early states...
Thu Dec 1, 2022, 09:16 PM
Dec 2022

...(e.g., South Carolina, which is heavily black, and Nevada, which is heavily Hispanic), it makes more sense. By itself it might not, but as a small state that is easily "campaign-able," it makes more sense. It's also a swing state. I think a combination of New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada makes sense. The only issue is that South Carolina is of course a Republican-heavy state and we are unlikely to win that state anytime soon; however, it does have a significant black population that usually is very much in tune with how the black Democratic electorate overall is feeling, so I can see it still being a part of the mix.

Are there any diverse, relatively small and "campaign-able" states out there? I was thinking somewhere like Delaware maybe, but since it is in that Northeast media market, that might make it not so "campaign-able," but I'm not sure how that works. Just spitballing here...

marble falls

(57,080 posts)
10. Not many states do. What does being first, especially with the method used in Iowa ...
Thu Dec 1, 2022, 09:57 PM
Dec 2022

... really do for anyone three weeks down the line? Make Maine first. Getting some of the more New Hampshire-ish states out of the way first is a good idea.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
8. But the DNC could refuse to accept the NH delegates
Thu Dec 1, 2022, 09:31 PM
Dec 2022

The state may have a law that stipulates the scheduling of their primaries, but primaries are run under party rules, and the DNC could decide not to seat any NH delegates if they hold their primary outside of the party’s approved schedule.

So, NH could go ahead and vote first, but the state wouldn’t have any official say in choosing the nominee.

I mean, that’s if Biden gets his way and the DNC wants to play hardball.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,601 posts)
11. I guess it will depend on how badly Biden wants to shake things up.
Thu Dec 1, 2022, 10:17 PM
Dec 2022

I’m thinking it might be worth the risk.

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