Nate Cohn predicting D+1 its going to be close guys

[DestinyIsles]

Link to tweet

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[Johnny2X2X]

1. They need their tight race

Ratings!

The reality is Warnock is outperforming November and Dem GOTV could make this a comfortable win in the end.

[Beautiful Disaster]

2. Not sure anyone knows if he's out-performing or not...

It's too soon to say because a lot of this is early votes and as same-day voting comes in, Warnock's lead in a lot of strong Democratic areas is likely to come down.

So, he might be at 81% in one county right now and pulled in 75% when all votes were counted last November - but it's not an equal comparison because that 81% doesn't necessarily include same-day. It's possible once that's calculated, he comes down to 75%.

[Beautiful Disaster]

6. Do you have a source from that?

[ColinC]

17. Meh it wasn't entirely true

Instead it looks like both are mostly hitting a lot of their benchmarks but Warnock is doing slightly better based on the New York Times results. Needle now at Warnock+2.4!!!

[joshcryer]

3. Every red county is down by 2-10% in turnout.

There's no way Walker can make it up if these counties keep trending this way.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. All I know is in November

Walker had a lead for quite a while after the early going saw Warnock with a lead, and then Warnock retook the lead late as the big counties in person voting came in.

I don’t remember Warnock being up almost 12 points with 44% in like right now. I think he had a very small lead with half in in November. But if the numbers from November do show that, don’t expect the networks to report it to distract for their headlines.

[Beautiful Disaster]

7. CNN has Warnock up 8.6 with 47% in

I tried to find a similar flash with 47% from November and the closest I found was 38% and Warnock was leading 53.8-44.6, so a bit better.

But that was with 10% fewer out than currently. And who knows what has been counted compared to in November.

[Johnny2X2X]

8. Warnock led by 13% tonight at 38%

Or about that. The middle 3rd of the voting is where Walker will gain like is happening now.

[Beautiful Disaster]

14. But we also don't know what was counted in November compared to today.

It's probably not an equal cut.

I do think Warnock is the favorite - I just don't think it'll be as large a I had hoped (I was hoping by a margin of four-to-six points). Maybe it will be ... but it feels like it'll be by like two points at the most.

[Johnny2X2X]

18. NY Times at 77% win chance

That should keep rising as more votes come in. The 23% chance is basically the uncertainty.

[Beautiful Disaster]

21. Sure but 77% is only a chance of winning 50.1 to 49.9 (as in, just odds he wins - not wins big).

It's sad it's this close.

[LeftInTX]

10. Warnock is at 52.7% right now..47% in...

That's less than 6%

[BlueCheeseAgain]

15. More info

Comparing the numbers from counties that have finished counting tonight-- the NYT has this near the bottom of the page. So far the numbers are more or less the same-- which is good, considering Warnock finished ahead in November.

[brooklynite]

9. Do you imagine the people who aren't political junkies are watching?

And the people who are watching know what the results are.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

12. I'm pretty sure Nate Cohn plays it straight.

If you look at the county-by-county, you see the margins of nearly-complete counties at more or less the same as November.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

11. Predicted margin has grown to 1.8%, and the race is now "leaning Warnock"

[mvd]

13. Now at "probably Warnock"

[BlueCheeseAgain]

16. Getting better by the minute!

[Hav]

19. Now at 2.5% estimated margin

I guess that means as more votes came in, the result was better than expected for Warnock.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

20. I think you're right.

On Twitter, he's also saying that Warnock is doing better than baseline on E-Day votes.

[WarGamer]

22. Yes, will be very close.

First you have the lack of a Libertarian candidate and then the reduced turnout...

Very close.