2024 Arizona Senate race

[Polybius]

We must nominate a great candidate and get behind him or her 100%. Sinema must not play spoiler. Think about this. The Republican is going to get 45-47% no matter what (Kari Lake is a good guess). I don't see many Republicans voting for Sinema, so we absolutely must do the same and unite behind our candidate. I know that all of DU will.

[grantcart]

1. Gallego will be the nominee

A Marine that served in combat who can motivate the Hispanic community and has a winning personality. His ex wife is mayor of Phoenix (they are friendly).

Sinema would struggle to get 20% in a 3 way race.

IMO she is preparing to cash out and make big bucks as a lobbyist.

[Polybius]

2. Does Arizona have a runoff like Georgia?

If not, 20% could be a real problem. Lake/Masters will almost certainly get at the very minimum 42%, however horrible that they may be.

[grantcart]

3. No one has a run off like GA

[AZSkiffyGeek]

5. I think Louisiana does

Or did at least.

[themaguffin]

17. Yep. I think that they have a run off next week. It's a legacy racist tactic

[AZSkiffyGeek]

4. No run-off

I'm honestly leery that Gallego could win statewide. I just don't see him running the type of campaign that Sinema and Kelly did to win. This could be a play from Sinema to freeze the Democrats out from running. Or she could be judging that her popularity amongst independents and "sensible" Republicans would be enough to beat him and a crazy R.
I dunno.

[ChazII]

43. Backing AZSkiffyGeek, both

Kelly and Sinema ran a center left campaign. Both of them said in their television ads that they would put Arizona before party.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

45. Kelly's ads were all Republican leaders and businessmen...

Talking about voting D for the first time.
Sinema's never actually mentioned her party, just that she was an "Independent Voice"

[ChazII]

46. True, n/t

[Just A Box Of Rain]

21. No run off.

In a three way race with Sinema in the field, we are probally fooked.

Like it--or don't (and I don't) this was a master-stroke on her part.

There are nearly as many people registered as Independents (technically "Other" in AZ) as there are Republicans. And more "Others" than Democrats.

The plurality candidate wins.

[Demsrule86]

11. I don't think he can win statewide. Arizona is still to reddish purple.

[grantcart]

16. Depends on 3 things

1) who is the Presidential nominee

2) who is the Republican nominee. He beats Lake type but loses to Jeff Flake type (also how destructive the Republican primary is)

3) If he can significantly increase Hispanic turnout.

AZ is reddish purple with most independents leaning right, it always boils down to how crazy the Republican nominee is. If they go with a Flake type they win but Flake types (or Ducey) can't win contested Republican primaries.

[Polybius]

27. I'll answer

1) Pretty sure it'll be Biden. He seems to indicate that he'll be running.

2) This is a tough one. If Trump wasn't in any legal trouble, I'd say it would be him. But he may go to jail. So let's divide this into two answers:

2.a) It's Trump, and he picks Lake as his VP. Blake Masters gets the Republican Senate nomination.

2.b) It's DeSantis (Trump either loses or is in jail). Kari Lake gets the Republican Senate nomination.

3) I think that he can increase it, but not significantly.

[grantcart]

37. Agree with all points

Gallego is more likely to be the nominee because he can run and lose and still get a good gig with his CV.

I don't think Stanton is likely to give up his seat for a tough primary and a long shot GE.

Not surprised to see the Dems clear the field quickly with a single candidate.

If the Republicans clear the field with Ducey only Sinema will be lucky to get 15%

[brush]

6. IMO that figure is much too high for republicans...

Last edited Fri Dec 9, 2022, 06:45 PM - Edit history (1)

as Sinema will siphon off a percentage of republican vote. as they know of her voting time and again against Biden's acenda...I mean her theatrics in making a scene in the well of the Senate in a ballet tutu to give a thumbs down to the big, high profile infrastructure bills, why that was designed to get republican attention and fund raising.

Yeah, she'll get some republican votes all right if she runs. And it'll help the Dem candidate.

[Polybius]

8. I dropped it to 42% bare minimum in another post

On every major issue that Republicans believe in, she doesn't agree with them. Spying on some of their sites, they like her no more than we like Susan Collins. Now, if she drops her committee assignments, that could change how they feel.

[Me.]

7. Arizonans Just Voted For Democrats Across THe Board

Last edited Fri Dec 9, 2022, 03:20 PM - Edit history (1)

that should that have told her unless she really doesn't care and is banking on a future big payday

[Polybius]

10. Yup, Arizona has gone from Purple to Light Blue

She may not even run for re-election.

[Demsrule86]

14. No it hasn't. We barely won in most cases and we had January 6 and Roe...Sinema has done this

to avoid a primary...and if she runs third party, we will lose.

[Polybius]

15. That was sorta the purpose of my OP (her running Third Party will be a huge issue)

Masters lost fairly handedly. Lake barely lost, true.

[Demsrule86]

18. Well, I agree with you. We may have to keep her. Let her run on the Democratic ticket as an

Independent like Sanders does.

[Polybius]

20. We agree more than we disagree, hehe

And if it looks like we may lose, we may just have to suck it up and support her. However, it's not looking like many agree with us. Unlike Bernie Sanders and Angus King, there seems to be no support for her at all, at least at this time.

[Demsrule86]

31. I see that and I believe people don't consider political reality in many cases. Everything is

political. I would rather have Sinema than a Republican...as long as she caucuses with us.

[Me.]

39. Then The Major Netweorks Like CNN Need To Change Their Meme

For that is what they are saying today

[former9thward]

13. No they did not.

Republicans got five of the state wide positions. In 2024 an Independent Sinema would mean either a R victory (most probable) or a Sinema victory.

[grantcart]

19. They voted against radical nut jobs. If they nominate Jeff Flake types we lose.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

26. In non-three way races

with great candidates on our side and complete loons on the other.

With thin margins.

[Demsrule86]

9. We will have to go with Sinema or she will run third party and we will lose the seat and we can't

afford that...clever move on her part.

[Polybius]

12. Do you think there's another option?

Can't we unite behind a great candidate and still win? BTW, you're the first post that agrees with me in the sense that she will take many more votes from us than them.

[Demsrule86]

22. No, a third party candidate will doom us.

[jcgoldie]

24. this is just a huge assumption based on no evidence

.

[Demsrule86]

29. Did you see how close the Arizona races were? What do you think siphoning off even a few votes.

will do? It seems logical to me. As for proof...what proof do you need look at the result with an open mind and you see how f'd we are if we have a third-party candidate.

[jcgoldie]

32. the assumption you are making...

...is that all the siphoning of votes will work one way. Poster below said 36% of AZ electorate identifies as independent. That means in any given election the party that gets most of them likely wins. Why assume that Sinema will siphon more of those who would break for the democrat than the republican? It may be true... but you are just guessing.

[Demsrule86]

34. They are mostly independents that lean Republican.

[jcgoldie]

36. well they didnt this year

[Demsrule86]

35. They are mostly independents that lean Republican.

[jcgoldie]

23. how many registered Democrats are there vs Republicans in AZ?

I do not see why people are assuming Sinema will sap more independents from the Democratic candidate than the Republican. If they are right leaning independents they are likely to vote for her over someone like Kari Lake who is likely to win the GOP primary based on recent candidates they have run.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

25. I want to say the percentages are around...

30% D
34% R
36% I

I know Democrats are lowest, and Independents are highest, I'm just not positive of the percentages.

[grantcart]

38. But the independents lean right

[AZSkiffyGeek]

40. They don't vote for crazy R though

The past 3 elections they've voted for moderate Ds - make no mistake, Kelly isn't much further left than Sinema and his campaign this time was EXACTLY like hers in 2018.
I don't know if the Independents who put Sinema and Kelly in would vote for Gallego.

[grantcart]

41. Some do but a plurality doesn't.

Some independents aren't Republicans because they think they are too moderate but a majority are anti nutso.

Don't forget that Gallego was a combat veteran.

But in the end your main point is the key.

If they nominate Ducey we lose if they nominate another crazy pants we have a chance

[Demsrule86]

30. The reason we win in Arizona is Republicans vote for us too if they don't, we will lose.

[jcgoldie]

33. no they dont.

independents decide the outcome just like everywhere else thats competitive. It just so happens in AZ that Indy number is much higher than most states. The 34% who identify republican do not vote blue in any significant amount.

[grantcart]

42. You are correct on the numbers but the endorsement of

Cindy McCain and Liz Cheney helps us with the independent vote.

[LonePirate]

28. 3 Person Race Likely R. 2 Person Race Lean D or Lean I

[Sky Jewels]

44. Let's keep working like the election is in a month.

Support voter organization efforts financially, help get young people registered, do postcard writing, etc.

One slightly morbid but relevant factor ... in two years, tens of thousands more old white Republican Silent Gen & Boomer Arizonans will have died, while tens of thousands of Gen Zers will have aged into voting. And it will be a presidential election year, so the Zoomers will probably turn out more than they did for the midterms.