Not so fast Sinema - Arizona requirements to run as an Independent for U.S. Senate

[ThoughtCriminal]

Filing Requirements for U.S. Senate in 2022. Signatures required:
3% of total registered voters who are not members of a ballot-qualified political party

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_requirements_for_political_candidates_in_Arizona

How many registered voters are not members of a ballot qualified party?

https://azsos.gov/elections/results-data/voter-registration-statistics

Voter Registration Statistics – November 2022
Republican: 1,436,852
Democratic: 1,270,544
Other: 1,404,385
Libertarian: 32,148

I'm not certain, but I think that the 1,404,385 voters listed as other fit in that category. I am not aware of any parties besides Rep, Dem, and Lib that are ballot qualified.

3% of that would be about 42,000 signatures

Can she get that between 120 and 90 days before the primary date?
Probably, but it might not be as easy as some may assume. She is not particularly popular with ANYONE except Republicans - and registered Republicans are not allowed on the petition.

IMPORTANT EDIT. As Salviati notes below, while the number of signatures is set by the number of non-affiliated voters, the signatures can be from any registered voter that has not signed a petition for another candidate. So, contrary to my initial interpretation Republicans and Democrats can in fact sign her petition.

[TheRealNorth]

1. Although it might not as easy with a Democratic governor....

The Republican legislature could try to change the rules.... cause rules are only meant for Democrats.

[tanyev]

2. Well that would be hilarious.

You mean I can’t just say “I hereby declare?!!”

Probably some Unaffiliated In Name Only organization will magically materialize to help gather those signatures, though.

[RockRaven]

3. Enough money can accomplish almost anything, signature-wise. But it takes money & organization.

Will she have enough of both?

[ThoughtCriminal]

8. Taking a look at what the GOP invested in Walker

I would guess that the GOP will spend lavishly on anything that might help flip a seat. But it's also money they will not have for other campaigns.

Organization - hard to say. It won't be a grass-roots effort because the support just isn't there, so they will have to buy that too.

But finding those 42,000+ eligible signatures many not be easy no matter how big they spend.

[SergeStorms]

4. How many republicans...

would change their party affiliation to Independent just to fuck the Democrats over?

Answer: probably way more than 42,000.

[ThoughtCriminal]

7. Not that easy

Well, it isn't hard but it would take a rather intensive campaign to get them to change in time. Only a tiny percentage of voters are that invested in these games. And it's not enough just get them to change party affiliation, you have to find this sub-group and get them to sign. Many would need to be reminded that Arizona has open primaries.

I'm not sure, but I think they would have to change registration BEFORE the 120-day mark.

Prediction: Quickly gets 100k signatures, but it gets dicey when over half turn out to be registered GOP.

[Salviati]

9. They don't need to change.

The number of signatures needed is related to the number of unaffiliated voters, but the signers can be of any political party.

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_requirements_for_political_candidates_in_Arizona#Process_to_become_a_candidate

[ThoughtCriminal]

10. You are correct

"Though the number of signatures required to gain ballot access as an independent is related to the number of registered voters who are not affiliated with recognized political parties, the affiliation of those signing the petitions does not matter as long as they have not already signed a political party candidate's petition"

[D23MIURG23]

15. I'm not convinced Rs will think they need Sinema in the race to win.

Arizona is usually pretty red. They could decide they have a better shot focusing on their own candidate against a D who doesn't have incumbency advantages.

[republianmushroom]

5. darn, fine print

[SCantiGOP]

11. I don't condone what she's done

But had she not won the seat four years ago Biden gets almost nothing accomplished and Justice Brown would not be on the Court.

[quakerboy]

12. the money behind the republicans will pay as much money as necessary to get her on the ballot

[grantcart]

13. Good research. She will need to harvest 60k signatures to get 42k

[rubbersole]

14. Hey, Independent maverick woman...

Hope you don't fuck this up. Could be embarrassing.

[Emile]

16. Well That's All Folks!

[former9thward]

17. Anyone can sign the petitions.

Though the number of signatures required to gain ballot access as an independent is related to the number of registered voters who are not affiliated with recognized political parties, the affiliation of those signing the petitions does not matter as long as they have not already signed a political party candidate's petition.

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_requirements_for_political_candidates_in_Arizona

So Indies, Republicans and Democrats can sign. That number can be gotten fairly easily. In reality no one does any cross checking between petitions to see if someone has signed a Dem or Rep petition and is signing an Indie petition.