Did Sinema make her decision to drop her Democratic affiliation before the last election?

[kentuck]

If Warnock had lost the GA race, then the Senate would have been tied at 50/50 with VP as tie-breaking vote, in favor of Democrats.

However, if Warnock had lost and Sinema then left the Democratic Party, she probably would have announced that she was caucusing with the Republicans and would have made Mitch McConnell the Majority Leader.

The Warnock race was historical in that respect. She can still leave the Party but she cannot put the Republicans in charge of the Senate.

I tend to believe that she had made her decision to leave the Party before the last election was decided.

[Celerity]

1. I don't think so. Her gambit is to basically blow up the Dem primary process, so she is not defeated

there and has a free run at relection in the general. She is gambling that we stand down and do not put up an actual Dem challenger.

IF she had switched to the Rethugs, she would have been crushed in a Rethug primary. There is no way they would have stood down, as they want her to run in a 3 way race, expecially if they nominate Ducey or another non MAGAt type. They also feel confident if it is a two way race as well, Sinema v Ducey expecially.

[kentuck]

2. She would have run strong as a Republican...

picking up a lot of support from Independents and maintaining support from a good percentage of the Democratic vote, in my opinion.

[Celerity]

3. There is no chance she would win a Rethug primary. Ducey or someone similar

would crush her.

[kentuck]

4. Unless there was a deal for switching Parties?

...and there may have been?

[Celerity]

5. There's no deal that will get Rethug primary voters to vote for a bisexual atheist who voted 93% of

time with Biden.

[Zambero]

9. And voted to impeach the Dear Leader twice

Sinema is held in low esteem by members of both parties in her state. Arizonans' current political affiliation is roughly 1/3 each Dem, GOP, and Indie. It seems like her strategy would be to corral most of the Independent vote and peel off enough blues and reds to get to 50%. Given her across-the-board unpopularity, I don't see her succeeding with this, as most party-affiliated voters would gravitate to their general election candidates. A recent poll had Sinema's approval amongst Democrats at 5%. Well-deserved, I might add.

[DarthDem]

6. I believe this is exactly right.

She knows she can't win re-election as a Democrat - that ship has sailed. So this is a last-ditch gambit (and a bluff) to try to spook the Dems into not running anyone against her. That effort is going to fail, very quickly and very spectacularly. After that, my very firm bet is that she decides not even to bother running. She'll continue to vote with Dems on judges and quietly leave the Senate of her own volition - she does *not* want to be defeated - having protected her relationships (she thinks) for a lobbying and/or media career to make the big bucks.

[jimfields33]

7. Politically she did the only thing she could.

It might not work, but the dem primary she had no chance. Running as an independent give her a glimmer of hope.

[GreenWave]

8. To escape criticism for not acting like a true Democrat.

I believe she timed it to golden shower over the 51 Democrat majority.

But no campaign $ from Democrats will come. I believe she will become a lobbyist rather than fail at re-election. She has no path to victory.

[Iggo]

10. lol...just another curtsy.

[DFW]

11. My personal opinion?

She had her plans in a box, ready to open the moment the Georgia election was called for Warnock.

[Jade Fox]

12. Yes. I think she believed the Red Wave prediction, and made her plan to join it......nt

[former9thward]

13. She made her decision at least by last spring.

She started running TV commercials in Arizona in the late spring before our primary in August. She, of course, was not even on the ballot. The commercials were on every network constantly and they emphasized her independence from parties. So its clear she knew her decision back then.

[Johonny]

14. I assume the poor performance of the GOP in the mid-terms and the rising popularity of Biden

made being a GOPer unattractive. I'm really surprised she just didn't play nice in a divided Senate which isn't going to get much done th next two years. It seemed like the smarter play if she wanted to win in 2024. Yeah, she was going to get primaried, but if Kelly and Biden rewarded her for playing nice, she probably wins that primary. Now she will almost certainly lose in 2024, so I still lean toward attention and money grab. Being the swing independent will get her a next gig alah Tulsi Gabbard.