Buffalo is supposed to get another 2-3 feet of snow in the next two days

[Renew Deal]

What's crazy is that they have already gotten 6+ feet of snow this season. Buffalo is supposed to be a climate haven and I have to wonder how much longer Buffalo winters will be worse than summers elsewhere.

[Ocelot II]

1. Gotta love that lake effect...

[SergeStorms]

4. You don't see any flat roofs around here.

They won't last long, if someone was fool enough to put a flat roof on any sort of structure.

[SergeStorms]

3. It's going to get nasty.

They're expecting a seiche as well. Lake Erie is relatively shallow, at an average of 62'. A steady, strong wind - like we're expecting with this storm - actually pushes all the water from one end to the other. That phenomenon is knoen as a seiche. Seiches can also be caused by large atmospheric pressure differences, like those accompanying large storms, like this one.

I've experienced a few of them in my day, and actually had a beached 12' boat washed away once, never to be seen again. They can range anywhere from 3'-10' in the Great Lakes.

[Renew Deal]

6. Looks like the marine forecast is worse than you expected.

What does a low water advisory mean?

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM EST FRIDAY
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...

REST OF TONIGHT
South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and
increasing to 35 knot gales after midnight. Rain late this
evening, then rain and snow after midnight. Snow late. Waves 1 to
3 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around
11 feet.

FRIDAY
West gales to 45 knots increasing to 50 knot storms.
Heavy freezing spray. Snow in the morning, then a chance of snow
in the afternoon. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around
18 feet.

FRIDAY NIGHT
West gales to 45 knots becoming southwest. Heavy
freezing spray. A chance of snow. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves
occasionally around 18 feet.

SATURDAY
Southwest gales to 40 knots diminishing to 35 knots.
Heavy freezing spray. A chance of snow showers in the afternoon.
Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally
around 14 feet.

SATURDAY NIGHT
West winds to 30 knots. A chance of snow
showers in the evening. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Waves occasionally around 10 feet.

SUNDAY
West winds to 30 knots becoming southwest 15 to
25 knots. Freezing spray during the day. Waves 4 to 7 feet
subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.

MONDAY
Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet
subsiding to 1 foot or less.

TUESDAY
Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Waves
2 feet or less.


LEZ165>167-230930-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
1010 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EST FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

REST OF TONIGHT
Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming
southwest and increasing to 35 knot gales after midnight. A
slight chance of rain late this evening, then rain after
midnight. Rain and snow late. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 8 to
11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.

FRIDAY
Southwest gales to 45 knots increasing to 50 knot
storms. Heavy freezing spray. Snow. Waves 14 to 18 feet building
to 17 to 22 feet. Waves occasionally around 28 feet.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Southwest storm force winds to 50 knots
diminishing to 45 knot gales. Heavy freezing spray. Snow. Waves
16 to 21 feet subsiding to 15 to 20 feet. Waves occasionally
around 27 feet.

SATURDAY
Southwest gales to 45 knots becoming west and
diminishing to 35 knots. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers.
Waves 15 to 19 feet subsiding to 11 to 15 feet. Waves
occasionally around 24 feet.

SATURDAY NIGHT
West gales to 35 knots. Freezing spray. Snow
showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers
overnight. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around
18 feet.

SUNDAY
West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots.
Freezing spray. A chance of snow showers. Waves 8 to 12 feet
subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.

MONDAY
Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to
15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding
to 1 to 3 feet.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts/FZUS61.KCLE.html

[SergeStorms]

7. For that particular forecast...

which looks like it's for different parts of Lake Erie, from the shores of northern Ohio to the southern shores of Ontario, Canada and the shores of western New York. They expect the storm to push the water across Lake Erie to the southern shores of Ontario, Canada and western shores of Lake Erie in New York. Some people and manufacturing companies have water lines that draw water from Lake Erie. They're warning everyone that they might not have any water to pump because its been blown to the other side of the lake. That's the seiche I was describing in my original post.

In the middle of the lake (if you're dumb enough to be on a boat during this crap) you could expect 11 - 14 foot waves, freezing spray, and gale force winds.

They're getting off easy. Lake Ontario, which is larger and deeper than Lake Erie, is expecting wave action up to 24'. That's incredible. I've been sailing in 30 knot winds with waves 13'-15' high and it was scary as hell. I can't imagine being in any watercraft with waves of 24'.

The Great Lakes are serious bodies of water. It's unlike sailing anywhere else in the world, because you can have 15' waves coming at you from all different directions. Until you experience it theres no way to adequately describe it. Scary, and dangerous pretty much sum it up during winter storms.

[Renew Deal]

8. Thanks. Good luck with the storm.