DeSantis Is Polling Well Against Trump -- As Long As No One Else Runs

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

I’m not happy about it, and you’re not happy about it, but it’s time to talk about polls of the 2024 Republican presidential primary. We’re still (probably) more than a year away from the Iowa caucuses, yet pollsters have already asked about the Republican primary at least 96 times since the 2022 midterm elections.

Yes, it’s still very early to be looking at these polls, and yes, a lot can change in the next 12 months. But we are now in the period where 2024 polls are at least somewhat interesting. As FiveThirtyEight’s Geoffrey Skelley has written, national polls conducted in the calendar year before the election are fairly predictive of who will eventually win the nomination.

Or they would be … if this cycle’s polls weren’t all over the place. Some, like Morning Consult’s tracking poll, give former President Donald Trump a wide lead. Others, like a December survey from YouGov/The Economist, show Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis far ahead, despite the fact that he has not yet officially launched a campaign.

But there’s a reason the polls disagree so much: They’re asking about different campaigns. Some surveys are asking about a hypothetical head-to-head race between Trump and DeSantis, while others are asking about a multiway battle royal among several Republicans. In one of these scenarios, DeSantis is the favorite; in the other, it’s Trump.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/desantis-is-polling-well-against-trump-as-long-as-no-one-else-runs/

[Lovie777]

1. Wait a minute .....

didn't I just see a "poll" showing that GQPs loyalty still resides with shithole? Something like 38% hard core insane next to 30% of semi - insane.

But then I read that the GQPs are fleeing shithole a day later.

[Tickle]

5. I think dick head will always have maybe %25

of repub votes which is why I fear him cutting a deal with DeSaten so he can get a pardon.

I can see him at one of his rallies telling his followers to vote for DeSantis blah blah blah. If that were to happen how hard would it be for DeSaten to win the primaries.

[Stargleamer]

6. There was this from November 22

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142998787

[SomedayKindaLove]

2. I don't think Trump can win a national election again

But if he were to win the GOP nomination, the angst would be too great that he could win again.

So do Dems want Trump to win the GOP nomination, and have a greater chance of retaining the Presidency? Or hope he's derailed before the GOP nomination and perhaps have a lesser chance of winning? Best option might be that he loses the nomination and runs as a third party.

[WarGamer]

4. I don't think he'll run 3rd Party.

He desperately needs/wants pardons and the DoJ called off his ass.

He NEEDS an ally in the White House.

[Mr.Bill]

7. I don't think so either.

I don't think he has the money or the staff to put something like that together.

[WarGamer]

3. IMHO, Trumps numbers only go down from here.

I think DeSantis wins easily. In fact, I think Trump drops out well before the last States vote.

[Quixote1818]

8. I would rather be up against Trump than DeSantis. nt