Putin's Secret Attack Plan Would Be Ukrainian Nightmare

[WarGamer]

Lots of info here, mostly from Ukrainian Intel service... counters some of the "happy news" that's been filling the feeds lately.

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-secret-attack-plan-ukrainian-094858834.html

KYIV—Ukraine is braced for a major new offensive that could begin within weeks. One of President Zelensky’s key insiders told The Daily Beast that they expect a looming Russian move to encircle the country with a simultaneous attack on three fronts.

“They are coming from all directions, with three lines of fighting: criminals, private contractors, and regular forces. Their goals are to get rid of their criminals, to test and train their contractors,” Umerov said.

"We are watching Russia build lots of forces in the Zaporizhzhia region. It looks like they are planning a pincer attack from Kharkiv [in the east] and Zaporizhzhia [in the south] directions, they will attempt to capture all of Ukraine’s major defense forces,” Zhdanov told The Daily Beast. “We are also watching Russian military constantly moving 10-12,000 men in Belarus [to the north]. They are also reinforcing in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.”

Makes sense now... this is why Zelenskyy is so frantic right now trying to get heavy weapons... It looks like they're expecting Russia to attempt a coup de grâce to end the war.

This tactic goes back to WW2, surround the opposing force, cut them off, squeeze them geographically and "reduce" the contained force primarily with concentrated artillery and air attack. The Germans did it to the Russians and a couple years later the Russians did it to the Germans. THIS is how armies of a million soldiers+ were snuffed out.

[Kaleva]

1. I don't see sources confirming Umerov as being a key insider

He's a member of the Ukrainian Parliament

[WarGamer]

2. So you don't believe any of his claims?

I've seen confirmation re: the forces in Belarus and reinforcements in Donbas... and I'm not looking for source material 24/7

Russian MIC is working 24 hours a day... lots of reports out there. They plan on fighting WW2 style... no concern for casualties just swarm men and machines. Millions of rounds of artillery... just heard today, Wagner alone has more than 50k troops in Ukraine.

[Irish_Dem]

3. May God help Zelensky and his people.

This sounds very bad.
Like it is going to be a living hell.

[WarGamer]

5. Many of us saw this coming.

Politically... there was no way Russia could just roll over.

It's all bad... war sucks.

[Irish_Dem]

6. Maybe this is why no one wants to give Zelensky tanks?

NATO knows it is over?

[WarGamer]

8. I see so many historical comparisons.

And it's all terrifying.

The Ukrainians are building a network of trenches and defensive works South of the Belarus border.

The Germans built defenses in the Seelow Heights on the Oder River and the Russians pounded every square inch with artillery before pushing tanks and soldiers forward.

Today, the Ukrainians will have to endure artillery and thermobaric artillery on top of the defensive works.

It's all too horrible to contemplate.

[Irish_Dem]

11. You and I know enough WWII military history to know what this sounds like.

And we know it doesn't sound good.

Putin is not going to stop. And it is going to get ugly, very ugly.

[WarGamer]

12. Sad. Just dreadful.

[Irish_Dem]

13. Why do you think NATO won't help Ukraine win this?

What is the real reason?

I didn't buy the whole Germany story about why they wouldn't give the tanks.
And the US was not saying much.

NATO spent Trillions on the Cold War.
Now won't spend a fraction to win Ukraine, where the people are willing to spill blood.

[WarGamer]

14. Two possibilities

Like you said, maybe NATO is afraid Russia will win?

And two, the threat of nuclear war or major escalation?

The EU wants to go on after the fighting stops... It's very bad for the EU to have a new Cold (or warm) War on their doorstep.

[Irish_Dem]

16. The experts I have been listening to seem to think Putin is just threatening nukes.

And wouldn't actually do it.
He knows Russia would be destroyed.

I didn't have a good feeling about Germany refusing to let other countries donate their tanks.
And the US not saying anything.

Putin's plan has been to keep going until the US and Europe gets tired.
Maybe that is what is happening. We are giving up.

It is very bad for the EU to have a rogue terrorist state next door.
Russia is not a superpower, it is a criminal enterprise.

If we embolden Russia, China will act on Taiwan.

[JanMichael]

46. Every time I see thermobaric I read it as thermobarbaric.

[pazzyanne]

20. + 1 nt

[InstantGratification]

30. I doubt it

Russia's abject incompetence at logistics is what kept them from winning this in the first week of conflict like Putin expected. They can't operate effectively more than 25 to 50 Km from a rail head because they just don't have enough support troops and vehicles to do it. We have pallets of supplies loaded by forklift in a few minutes per truck load. They don't use pallets or forklifts, they load rounds of artillery one at a time (each in a separate crate) BY HAND. Then they unload the same way on the other end.

It is wildly inefficient. As a hypothetical example: If it takes 30 minutes to load a truck, 30 minutes to drive to it's destination, 30 minutes to unload and 30 minutes to drive back, that is 2 hours for ONE LOAD. Double the distance. Now you have 30 to load, 60 to drive, 30 to unload, 60 to drive back. That is 3 hours.

Now double the distance again. 30 to load, 120 to drive, 30 to unload, 120 back. That is now 5 hours.

If the first example take 10 trucks a day to keep a unit supplied, the second example takes 15 a day, the third takes 25 trucks a day. It gets dramatically worse the farther Russian gets from a rail head. That is where Russia's logistics fail, they don't allow for more trucks they farther they get from a rail head, hence, their resupply capacity gets smaller with each step farther from the rail heads.

Russia is struggling greatly to supply what they have in the field now. And still failing to keep them fully supplied with the CURRENT supply lines. Longer supply lines (and a great many more of them) just make all of that worse. I doubt that, 11 months in, that they have magically reinvented their entire logistics system.

[Irish_Dem]

34. It's not about artillery. It is about whether or not NATO will support Ukraine.

Can we give what Ukraine needs to win this war or not?

That is the real issue.

[Kaleva]

43. Is the guy sn insider or not? He looks to be a low level member of Parliament

If they lie or embellish one part of the story, one should be suspect about the rest


Don't let confirmation bias trip you up

[WarGamer]

4. NBC story re: massive build up in Belarus.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-russian-belarus-renewed-offensive-war-invasion-border-rcna64858

Ukraine is preparing for battle in this quiet forest clearing less than five minutes driving from the border with Russia's close ally. Originally built in April, Ukrainian forces continue to update and strengthen defenses such as these trenches, amid reports of Russian troops and armor pouring into Belarus.

[Samrob]

7. If "preemptive strikes" were good enough for Israel in the 60s, they should be good for NATO now. nt

[WarGamer]

9. I'm sure NATO is thinking... thermonuclear global war or "targeted strikes"

Hmmm...

[Samrob]

24. They are over thinking. Target their nukes and have at it. Either that or democracy dies

by a thousand Russian strikes.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

10. From the same group that planned the initial 3 Day invasion of Ukraine.

If Putin's goal is to rid himself of his convict population by using them as "cannon meat," that I believe.

Suicide waves does not an army make.

[Irish_Dem]

15. It is what Stalin did very successfully in WWII against the Germans.

Millions of men who were just suicide waves. Men who died from bullets, starvation, freezing.
Just kept throwing them at the Germans until the Germans couldn't do it anymore.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

17. Stalin had the US supplying him weaponry and the Soviets were on home turf.

I don't think the analogy holds, when the Ukrainians have drones, friendly "eyes in the skies," in addition to some of the best kit in the NATO arsenals.

21st century warfare vs suicide waves of untrained, unmotivated, and under equipped convicts and others from the bottom of Russian society.

Won't be pretty.

[Irish_Dem]

19. Russia has occupied parts of Ukraine, so it is home turf to some extent.

And Russia is now much wealthier than in Stalin's day.

Unfortunately for some of us WWII buffs this is now looking too much like WWII strategy and tactics.

A war of nerves, psychology and raw determination. And very very ugly.

Putin's plan is to get as brutal as possible, drag this out as long as he can.
Let the US and Europe get tired of all of it and stop sending weapons to Zelensky.
We just saw Germany refusing to let other countries donate tanks to Ukraine.
US not saying much about it.

[dalton99a]

22. +1. Putin knows the West's love for Ukraine has a shelf life and is not unlimited

Especially if there is a recession coming

[Irish_Dem]

23. Putin is banking on this.

I always thought Putin installing his puppet into the WH was the crime of the century.

I was wrong, Putin destroying Ukraine for his own personal pleasure and ego is the crime of the century.
And the US let it happen.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

27. That is a terrible bet, as the US and NATO resolve will not break.

Putin is miscalculating.

[Irish_Dem]

33. I hope you are right. How Ukraine uses weapons is not the issue.

Its tactics and strategies are not the major point of contention.

THE major issue is if NATO and the US will support Ukraine.

[orangecrush]

29. Putin

Is way past his expiration date.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

26. To the contrary, Russia has used up much of their conventional military capacity and they

that have been the effective occupiers once 2014; however, that’s not so much of a strategic advantage when it comes to anotheR attemp at a broad invasion on Ukrainian home turf.

This is not WWII and those who employ outdated strategy and tactics will be wiped off the field very quickly. That’s the whole point.

Putin’s brutality will result in his losing a lot of people who he doesn’t seem to care about in any case. That’s not sustainable. Even for a large nation.

[Irish_Dem]

35. As I said above. Tactics are not the major issue.

It is all a moot point if NATO and the US will not give Ukraine the support it needs to win the war.
Germany won't give tanks now, or let other countries give tanks.

Also if you look at the videos, sure looks like a lot of street to street fighting in Ukraine.
Some of the psychology of this is the same as WWII.

Yes some of the 21st century weapons are different.

But some of the elements of war are as old as time.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

39. Absolutely untrue. The US and our NATO allies have been and will continued give

Ukraine precisely the weapons they need to defeat Putin’s forces, while also being mindful that we have twin goals of not being so escalators that we tough off a nuclear conflict.

We have struck the prefect balance. Putin is losing.

WWII mentality is the wrong mindset to achieve victory in this conflict.

[Lonestarblue]

18. The US and NATO have dragged their feet just giving Ukraine enough weapons to keep fighting.

They may have delayed too long in giving them more powerful weapons, though I hope not. It would be fantastic if the people of Belarus, who voted their dictator out of office but Putin helped him stay there, would sabotage Russian soldiers and equipment moved into their country.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

40. Not remotely factual.

The weapons the west has provided have been stratigically well-chosen to meet the needs of UKR forces in an ever evolving conflict.

It has been a absolutely brilliant deployment of weaponry.

[joe_stampingbull]

21. I haven't seen any evidence that russia could pull it off

It is too complex for them to pull it off successfully. It reminds me of the 3 day plan to win at the beginning of the war.

[LymphocyteLover]

25. Same. I'm skeptical that they have the personnel, arms or organization to do this

They've been worn down mightily in this war and the Wagner group are the only ones really fighting hard

[Emrys]

32. Without wishing to tempt fate, nor have I.

The situation's more dynamic and a bit less gloomy that the OP paints.

Tomorrow sees a major meeting of NATO and its allies at Ramstein where more aid is certain to be agreed to culminate a week when large tranches of new weaponry supplies for Ukraine have been announced from a variety of countries.

The log jam over supplies of tanks looks like it may be breaking after the UK announced its supply of Challengers. More long-range artillery - arguably more critical than tanks - is being supplied and of very good quality. Large numbers of Ukrainian troops are being trained in NATO countries and will arrive on the battlefield fresh and well equipped in due course.

The Wagner forces are suffering vast attrition in battle for very few gains. Assessments vary, but thousands of the 50,000 mercenary troops quoted above have been eliminated. Another troll of the Russian prisons to top up their ranks is likely to make scraping the bottom of a barrel look more productive. The toll on the Ukrainains has also been costly, but not in the same ball park.

Russia's domestic politics are increasingly in turmoil, with Putin fearful of Wagner chief Prigozhin, who Putin can't afford to see fail, but whose successes in any military manoeuvres make him more of a leadership threat. The relatively mild weather in most of Europe this winter has defused Putin's blackmail attempts over oil and gas supplies and the rouble's tanking again. Locations in Russia far from the border keep going up in flames or spectacular firework shows for whatever reasons ...

Belarus is very reluctant to get involved directly. Internally, it can't afford the schisms direct involvement in the armed conflict would worsen, and internal dissent would likely grow to an alarming extent for what is an illegitimate regime going though hard economic times. Poland would be very jumpy about any adventures near its borders with Belarus and Ukraine. The land any northern attack on Ukraine in the direction of Lviv would have to navigate has very restricted roads and is generally flooded marshland when it's not frozen.

It's not a rosy picture, but not as doomy as set out above. Couple that with the proven vastly superior military leadership of the Ukrainian forces, and I think some unpleasant surprises are in store for Putin as the year progresses.

[bronxiteforever]

45. +1 excellent points. The GOP support of Russia

would require support for Iran and the GOP cannot take that hit from the voters.

I also think Iran is in for long term instability and Russia has neither the troops or the weapons to stabilize Iran. The people are in revolt and are not going to stop now. The Iranian government has many external enemies that will take advantage of the clerical government’s weakness.
Iran is a failed state that is in demographic free fall and is weakening by the day.

China has major economic,social and demographic challenges that will occupy its leadership for sometime. China can’t prop up the rUssian bear. China has no interest in the Ukrainian war and its leadership believes Putin made a catastrophic mistake by invasion.

I don’t subscribe to the doom porn of the OP. Too much given to Russia and its alliances. Look below the surface of those alliances and the support for the Russian war is thin. I prefer the realty based view. The Ukrainian struggle for freedom is bitter and hard fought but it is an existential one for its people. Russia is just fighting a war of conquest and does not have the morale factor. The Ukrainian people are fighting for their survival and that is what our species does best.

[Emrys]

50. In the end, realpolitik means any prospective Putin allies have to ask themselves

whether he looks like a winner.

The fact is that neither China nor Iran have chosen to openly support the invasion, indeed not even pariah state North Korea, which the RF's been driven to tap for armaments. Belarus is a reluctant vassal state. Other more distant NATO-hostile countries are no doubt waiting to see which way the wind blows.

Given that any futher expansionism beyond Ukraine westward would enlist NATO, it's not an enticing prospect for Putin's pals. And meanwhile, he faces the prospect of challenges to his federation from within, from its southern states, which are growing increasingly restless. It just takes one or two of them to make an opportunistic move, and he'll be longing for the days before he started all this.

[Irish_Dem]

36. All Putin needs to do here is trick Ukraine away from Crimea.

Whether they pull it off or not, it still scatters Ukrainian troops and weakens their positions.

Fighting a war on three fronts is very difficult.

It will cause a lot of damage to the Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure.

And take the focus away from Crimea which is the goal of Putin here.
If Putin loses Crimea, he loses the war.

[orangecrush]

31. YAWN

Republicans don't cross defense manufacturers.

Don't expect majority of Republicans to desert Ukraine

[Irish_Dem]

37. If Putin wins the war in Ukraine, it is the final chapter in the Cold War. Putin wins.

Putin successfully weakened the US, damaged our democracy by installing his puppets into high office.

Now he gets control of eastern Europe, can do whatever he wants with impunity.

No war crime is unthinkable for him. He knows no one has the guts to prosecute him.

China will be emboldened, Taiwan will be next.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

41. Putin is losing the final stages of the Cold War--and quite badly.

The last gasp of a dying authoritarian/totalitarian nightmare and a victory for liberal capitalist democracies. The path that is actually progressive is proving liberal resiliency.

[Irish_Dem]

42. I hope NATO feels the same way.

But yes. Putin has been surprised that the West kicked back on him.

I am not counting out the son of a bitch quite yet.
He is a ruthless psychopath and will try to win no matter the cost to the world.

The ending of this story is not yet decided.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

56. Clearly, they do. All the countries of Europe understand the threat--and especially those that

endured living under (or in the shadow of) Soviet Socialist tyranny.

We have a huge coalition of prosperous states with liberal democratic values and advanced capitalist economies. Even smaller countries like Spain and Italy had GDPs that individually rival that of Russia.

Putin badly miscalculated. He is failing and NATO (et al) will see this to the end.

[Emrys]

47. It's worth considering for a minute what "taking control" of Eastern Europe

as you describe would involve.

It would mean either overcoming the armed forces of each country (and NATO for countries which are NATO members) or subduing and enlisting them to Putin's cause in order to impose some sort of order and proceed with the conquest. Invading a country is one thing. Running it is successfully is quite another.

Belarus - where Putin's dream is closest to realization on a small scale - is not cut and dried as a vassal state or ally. Its population is seriously divided and its current leadership's status is very precarious. Numerous members of its armed forces are already fighting Russia in Ukraine. Poland's a non-starter, and would crush Putin's forces (and Belarus's) quickly even without the wider involvement of NATO. Serbia and its neighbours have their own problems and no interest in the adventure. Hungary is dithering in its degree of engagement with the EU, and would be crushed by sanctions if it joined the RF cause. Does Putin look like enough of a winner right now to offer an enticing prospect for any prospective allies in Eastern Europe?

Having seen how the Russian Federation has treated the population and infrastructure in areas of Ukraine it has occupied for various periods - acts amounting genocide and numerous other horrible war crimes - do you imagine the people of any country are likely to be keen to join in on Putin's path to his grotesque dream other than a relatively few tankies and useful idiots?

Meanwhile, outer states of the Russian Federation are growing increasingly restless. It's only a matter of time before the Federation faces true existential challenges to its existence - but from within, not outside.

[Irish_Dem]

49. Putin wants to be a global superpower, but first must get regional control.

Just like China must get control of the Pacific.

If Putin wins the war in Ukraine via his control of resources, threat of nukes and
sheer determination and will power, then he has control of Europe. Even
now Germany refuses to help Ukraine with tanks. Germany blinked.

Putin has installed his puppets across European governments and
winning in Ukraine is the last step in gaining regional control.

Putin doesn't care about the country of Ukraine, he doesn't care about the pile of dirt
he is turning it into. Running it is a non issue.

Europe appears to have no appetite for long term conflict with Russia.
And assumes if they let Putin have Ukraine or Crimea it will placate him.

[Emrys]

52. Putin is barely in control of the Russian Federation!

It's only a matter of time before some of the disgruntled southern states decide on taking their opportunities to redress the balance and really stretch his military resources.

In fact, he's barely in control of his own government! He's terrified of the growing power of organizations like Wagner, and if he doesn't succumb to illness in the near future, he may have an accident involving an upper-storey window or whatever.

I don't recognize this "Europe" you portray, as a European myself. The idea of placating Putin with Crimea is a thing of the past. We know enough of the barbarism of RF forces in their occupied territories that it's sharpened minds, beyond a few tankies and useful idiots.

Your information on Germany is out of date, by the way. This is a highly dynamic situation, and it's necessary to constantly work really hard to keep up.

[Irish_Dem]

53. Did Germany relent and give Zelensky the tanks overnight while I was sleeping?

If not, I stand by my comments.

Sometimes it is necessary to work really hard to see reality staring at us.

ETA The US and NATO refusal to given Zelensky the weapons to take Crimea
are telling us the story for right now.

[Emrys]

55. OK, sidestep my other comments because they don't fit in with your gloomy world view.

Ukraine needs longer-range artillery much more than it needs tanks. It's not so much a matter of Germany supplying tanks directly, it's agreement that other countries can supply German-made tanks.

Germany's just had a change of defence secretary, in case you hadn't noticed. It's also been one of the most generous donors to Ukraine, though that would be easy to miss amid all the noise.

And there's this:

Germany Allows Ukraine ‘Preparatory’ Training on Leopard Tanks

and this:

Germany's new defense minister says Leopard tank supplies to Ukraine not dependant on Abrams shipments

The pressure on Germany is mounting quickly. Poland is champing at the bit and may tell Germany to go hang pretty soon, Norway has already indicated that it's likely to buy South Korean tanks rather than Russian ones because of the delays.

Stay awake for the outcomes from the Ukraine allies meeting in Ramstein. It's been very well attended and should see quite a few logjams breaking before long.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

58. Sweden is sending some stuff...

[ From https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217575116 ]

[Just A Box Of Rain]

57. The US and NATO are giving and have been giving Ukraine what they need ahead of the moment

at every stage of this conflict.

The weapons supply had been an outstanding achievement. It takes time to integrate new weapons systems--and to the credit of UKR forces they have been the fastest of learners. In addition to taking up NATO weapons systems, the Ukrainians have come up with their own innovations.

The picture you seem to be painting doesn't reflect what has actually been happening.

[Captain Zero]

38. I hope Putin thinks we have stopped arming Ukraine

The day he finds out we haven't will be his end.

[Renew Deal]

44. Europe is going to be forced to decide if they will allow Russia to take one of their countries.

And if they do, shame on them.

[marmar]

48. If it's the subject of a news article how big of a secret could it be?

[Irish_Dem]

51. WarGamer I think I figured out one possible scenario.

Europe and the US are growing weary of a long term war as you suggested.

Putin is doubling down and will keep sending suicide waves indefinitely.

Europe and the US are only giving Zelensky enough to defend Ukraine,
but NOT Crimea. If Zelensky gets more help and takes Crimea he
wins the war. Europe and the US appear to hate that outcome.

I think a deal may be on offer from NATO. Putin leaves Ukraine but he keeps Crimea.
Everyone is happy but Zelensky. But what he wants doesn't appear to be top
on the US priority list.

Germany refusing to let other countries give tanks to Ukraine tells the story.
Ukraine is not going to be allowed to take Crimea. NATO is giving it to Putin.

In exchange Putin stops the war. Sells cheap fuel to Europe again.
Stops making NATO supply weapons to Ukraine. Europe doesn't have
to deal with more Ukrainian refugees. Putin's puppets he installed across
European governments are happy.

But it is very foolish for the west to give Putin regional control.

[Takket]

54. wish there was some way to talk to the prisoner regiment

tell them they are just cannon fodder and the only way they are coming out of this alive is to turn on their Russian handlers and switch sides.