Trump beats Biden by 5 pts. DeSantis beats Biden by 3pts. Harvard poll.

[Cattledog]

13-18% undecided.

Voters don't want Trump or Biden to run in 2024.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/HHP_Jan2023_KeyResults.pdf

[CrispyQ]

1. I'll get flamed but I don't want Biden to run in 2024 either. -nt

[Polybius]

2. Problem is, Biden does a lot better than Harris

He's our best hope.

[iemanja]

48. It's not like there are only two potential candidates.

[W_HAMILTON]

52. There can be dozens like in 2020 -- and yet it won't matter.

Biden will run and Biden will win.

[iemanja]

56. If Biden runs

He will of course win the nomination. But this subthread was about who the poster, and others, wanted to see be the nominee. Those aren't the same things.

[W_HAMILTON]

73. Biden will run and win...

...because none of your other "preferred" candidates are preferred by as many as Joe Biden is (and was in 2020).

It seems as though the anti-Biden contingent repeatedly misconstrues lack of fervent support for Biden as support for their candidates. The lack of support for Biden comes from the many disparate groups that make up the left and the Democratic Party nowadays. They may each want their own particular candidates, but the problem is, the other groups dislike those preferred candidates even more than Biden. Which is why Biden trounced them all in 2020 and will trounce them all again if any one is dumb enough to challenge him in a primary in 2024.

[iemanja]

75. Biden didn't run in 2022

and the Democrats hardly trounced the GOP. We did better than the media predicted. That's it. We still lost the House.
I don't have a particular candidate. I don't want DeSantis as our next president. (I don't believe Trump will win the GOP nomination.) My singular goal is to see a Dem in the White House. Now I recognize that I have no control over that, but your claims of overwhelming victory don't reflect the reality of politics today. Elections are ALWAYS close. That is a simple fact.

As for support, I will support the Democratic nominee as I always do. And from the current horizon, that looks to be Biden.

[W_HAMILTON]

89. You seem to be all over the place.

And I was referring to the Democratic Primary. Biden trounced all competitors in 2020 and he will do so even more handily in 2024, if any one is dumb enough to risk their political career as a Democrat by challenging him in 2024.

[iemanja]

93. I doubt they'll be a primary if he runs

or not much of one. So I think we are in agreement there.

I don't know what you mean by all over the place. Perhaps you're expecting a narrower view than I have. I did misunderstand your point about trouncing to be about the GE rather than the primary. Perhaps therein lies the confusion.

[wnylib]

110. Dems had a historic year in the 2022 midterms.

As the incumbent WH party we maintained the Senate and even gained there while losing the majority in the House by a mere handful. We also gained several governors and some state legislatures. That's a remarkable achievement for an incumbent party in the midterms.

[iemanja]

111. I'm aware

We did better than expected. We need to do better in 2024.

[SheilaAnn]

4. Agreed. n/t

[BeyondGeography]

8. Yes, it's an obviously terrible idea

Which probably means it’s inevitable.

[Chicago1980]

9. Why not?

And who do you want and who you think is capable of winning?

[Demsrule86]

28. No one else.

[doc03]

10. I think Biden has done a great job and I would support him but his (age?) then who would better?

[Demsrule86]

27. There is no one in 24.

[LakeArenal]

15. You will be flamed. Changing horses is a killer and plays right into rw agenda.

“See even Democrats think Biden’s incompetent.” “Even Dems hate Biden.
Blah blah blah.”

Personally I think saying it is Dem bashing

But it’s an opinion so I would never alert.

[former9thward]

102. Not changing horses can be a killer.

Carter was unpopular and he lost. Kennedy probably would have won if we "changed horses". Bush I was unpopular and if the Rs had changed horses they might have beat an unknown Clinton. Trump was unpopular and another R might have beat Biden.

BTW when has a party changed horses and lost?

[Polybius]

103. 1968

LBJ decided not to run again and Democrats lost to Nixon.

[former9thward]

104. Well LBJ knew he was going to lose and took himself out.

So that horse was going to be changed no matter what. Also there was that little thing called the Chicago Democratic convention police riot and chaos televised to the country. Once that happened it was over except the counting of the votes.

[Cha]

21. YEsh, Who Do you Want to Run that

will Win this thing like PJB did?

[Demsrule86]

29. Flamed? Deserved because Biden is

Running. Support our folks.

[In It to Win It]

33. I'm unsure how I feel because

on one end, I think Joe Biden has gotten some really important legislation passed, a good bit of it with bipartisan support. For the last two years, Congress has actually not been so useless and I think a lot of that is owed to Joe Biden being POTUS.

On the other end, the right will crucify him on immigration and whatever bullshit "wokeness" that they can make up. The immigration issue is real, and unfortunately for Joe Biden, it got worse. I don't blame Joe Biden for that but the circumstances got worse on his watch. The media is unrelenting when it comes to covering it.

Joe Biden has had a lot of on-the-ground and real world success, and for that, he should be re-elected. However, all of his success is getting buried, undeservingly, in the dumbest bullshit. I'm not confident enough (yet) that people will see past the bullshit.

But if it's not Joe Biden as the party nominee, then who? I don't have an answer to that. I don't have an alternative choice so Joe Biden has to be my choice, and therefore will receive any support I can give.

[dpibel]

65. Who dodges the bullshit?

You apparently believe there's a candidate who will not be smeared with the same bullshit as Joe Biden.

I guess if it's a younger person, it takes away the ageist part of the bullshit. But all the rest is going to be there, and the Repubs will come up with something to substitute for age as a fatal defect regardless who the candidate is.

[In It to Win It]

77. I don't believe that. You're misreading.

I don't believe anyone will dodge the bullshit. My concern is that it just appears to me that the bullshit seems to stick to Joe Biden more than others.

My concern that is Joe Biden's actual success will be overshadowed by the bullshit. As I've said in the previous post, I have no "younger person" or anyone else in mind that would replace Joe Biden as the nominee. I think Joe Biden has had some great achievements and should be re-elected.

Speaking of the ageist bullshit, I think that's the reason why the some BS seems to stick. People seem to be more willing to believe the bullshit because Joe Biden is old(er).

[iemanja]

39. I feel the same

Not because he's not a good man, but he does so poorly in the polls that it concerns me. There are other reasons I feel that way as well.

[Wingus Dingus]

54. I've said that before, it doesn't usually go over well here.

[pink]

66. It wasn't so hard for Biden to campaign in the 2020 election.

Because of covid, he did most of his campaigning from his basement. He will be 4 years older for 2024 and the campaign will be much, much harder. He will also have to prove that he will be a competent president at the age of 86. I love Joe but I think time is against him.

Also, I wasn't keen on Harris in the primaries, so I wouldn't like to see her automatically be given the reins. There are many competent Democrats with valuable experience. Jamie Rasken comes to mind. Hopefully he will recover from his medical issues very soon.

[underpants]

71. Well this is interesting 🧐

[former9thward]

101. I don't want anyone Biden's age (or Trump's age) to run for president.

It is simply too old for that office.

[CrispyQ]

115. Agreed.

We'll be accused of agism, although no one ever explains how minimum age requirements are not ageism, just an accepted form of it.

[Aviation Pro]

3. Again with bullshit polls

Again.

[Rebl2]

6. Yep

[LakeArenal]

16. Exactly. Two years of them. Heads.

[Bev54]

36. Yep last week Biden was far ahead in polls.

I wish people would quit even putting them out, they mean nothing as was shown by the last election.

[panader0]

60. After seeing so many repubs and other bad folks who graduated from Harvard,

my opinion of Harvard as THE premier college in the country has fallen apart.

[JohnSJ]

84. but they did so well in the midterms

[Rebl2]

5. Just saw

a poll a couple days ago that said Biden would beat Trump. To early for me to pay attention to polls.

[LakeArenal]

17. I refuse ever to believe any polls.

Good or bad.

[W_HAMILTON]

7. You know who else they don't want to run?

Pretty much every single one of their potential primary opponents.

There isn't anyone that will beat Biden in a Democratic Primary and there probably isn't anyone that will beat Trump in a Republican Primary.

So, while voters may not want them to run, they want their potential primary opponents to run even less.

[The Magistrate]

19. Hear Hear, Sir

Not only opening as favorites, but holding till the finish.

It's certainly the way to bet....

[DURHAM D]

11. lol Mark Penn's Harris poll.

He is a full blown Trumpie toe sucker.

[Meadowoak]

61. Push poll.

[ColinC]

12. I wouldn't be surprised if 18 percent are undecided

Between a moderate Democrat with a rational temperament and two deranged wannabe dictators with napoleon complexes. Just kinda how Americans are…

[Freethinker65]

13. Trump would not beat Biden.

DeSantis could not beat Biden if he continues to embrace ignorance for Florida.
Biden could be beaten tho, by a moderate sane Republican that shuns the fringe of the GOP (if they could win the primary).

[Initech]

14. So we're back in the shitty dark timeline? Great.

[LakeArenal]

18. Agree.

[RKP5637]

20. I have a hard time seeing what Biden is doing that some think is so horrible in the poll. n/t

[Cha]

24. If anyone is brainwashed by

the manipulative media then it's easy to see.

[JohnSJ]

85. +++

[RKP5637]

114. Between Fox and OAN plus others, they keep so many dumbed down and in the dark.

And they pound the crap into peoples heads and echo chambers 7x24. In short, the US media for the most part really sucks! I recall way back in my early education being taught discretionary thinking ... it seems that is lacking today. It's really shocking how some of these critters get voted into positions of power.

[Demsrule86]

26. It is just another bullshit poll who think

someone else other than Biden can win in 24- which won’t happen.

[a kennedy]

68. Exactly, and it's one damn poll right??

🤬 🤬 🤬. And it isn’t like the MSM is helping BIden, it’s all bad news all the time about him.

[ripcord]

94. For many it is his age

If he runs and wins in 2024 he will be 86 during the last year of his term.

[RKP5637]

107. Yep, I was thinking about that some more, most likely is.

[moonscape]

22. If not Biden then ..

I think a Buttigieg v Santos race would be awesome, with required debates.

[BeyondGeography]

44. Lol

Points for humor.

[Takket]

23. Harvard poll: we've learned nothing from 2020 and 2022

[JohnSJ]

86. It seems many here fall for the same crap everytime

[jcgoldie]

113. ooooo

[Demsrule86]

25. Just stop with the meaningless polls

Biden has the advantage for being an incumbent and for being the only candidate who can win the rust belt… and of course coming off a huge midterm victory which has happened only three times in 100 years.

[Silent3]

32. There's a big difference between "accurate victory predictor" and "meaningless"

This poll is probably more than accurate enough to let you know that way, way too many Americans haven't learned properly from the Trump experience to reject anyone vaguely Trump-like.

The rejection of Trump or DeSantis SHOULD be large enough to overwhelm all but the worst polling errors, and put Biden safely ahead.

Either too many Americans are so ignorant and out-of-touch as to not understand the important differences between these choices, or they're nasty enough to actually understand what Trump and DeSantis are, and to want them because of that.

[ProfessorGAC]

40. Yes There Is

Yet, this poll is meaningless.

[Silent3]

59. I just gave you meaning that can be extracted from this poll...

...you seemed to agree with that meaning, but then you inconsistently respond "et, this poll is meaningless".

The concept of "meaningful" is much broader than "provides an accurate depiction of what will happen two years from now".

[ProfessorGAC]

72. We Disagree Completely

This PARTICULAR poll, AT THIS POINT IN TIME is pointless and of zero value.
I did not agree with you about the meaning as it relates to the situation. My general agreement in principle should not be confused with agreement in specifics.
And, I do disagree that a statistically driven poll with zero predictive value has some other value. The whole point of social statistics is to be able to do some reasonable extrapolation.
I agree that polling can have value beyond ONLY predicting outcomes. The point of a poll like this, however, is to predict an outcome. If it's the point of the poll & it fails to do that it is meaningless.
I will not engage further on this matter as it's obvious there is an agenda beyond this poll, and that is an agenda for which I have no use.

[Silent3]

74. The title of the poll is "APPROVAL AND MOOD OF COUNTRY"

The title is not anything that claims to "predict an outcome".

You're foisting your own idea of what the poll is intended to do onto the poll.

Polls like this have value in, among other things, just getting a rough idea of where people stand -- knowledge that has value in and of itself -- and for deciding what work has to be done to change outcomes in the future.

[Silent3]

30. Even if this isn't incredibly accurate, it's still sickening

Biden SHOULD beat Trump or DeSantis or any of these MAGA-ish monsters by so many points that the crappiest poll would show Biden way ahead.

For all of those "I'm not paying attention to polls" people, be smart enough to realize that most polls aren't off by 10-20%. They might be far from accurate enough to make predictions of electoral victory when so many races are decided by narrow margins, but they are good enough to give you a rough sense of where the electorate stands.

We have an enormous problem in this country if an overwhelming majority of voters haven't learned from the Trump experience that anyone even vaguely like Trump is dangerously unacceptable.

[colsohlibgal]

37. Amen

The pure dangerous stupidity in the USA now is staggering and of course dangerous.

There has always been a dangerous right wing fringe in the USA but far right wing propaganda has exponentially spread right wing propaganda to vulnerable minds.

[SoCalDavidS]

43. Why I'd Like To Retire To Another Country

I don't feel comfortable being surrounded by so many who would vote for him a 3rd time, let alone the 2nd or 1st.

[Silent3]

49. If it were all affordable, and a country with smarter voters would let me it...

...I'd be right on that. Unfortunately the best-seeming alternatives are too expensive to move to, and they don't want to provide their much better social services to people who haven't been paying taxes in those countries for a good portion of their life.

Even with in-demand skills, which I have, a country like, say, New Zealand, isn't going to get enough taxes out of someone like me who is 60 and would want to retire in a just few years.

[DFW]

76. Even that won't always help you

I have been living and working in Germany full time for over ten years, pay them over €40,000 every three months in taxes (in addition to what I pay the IRS in the USA), and get NOTHING in return. No health insurance, no pension, nothing whatsoever except the right to live with my wife, and vote to for mayor of the town I live in. Enteignung hasn't gone completely out of style, and it doesn't help that one of only TWO countries on this planet that does NOT recognize residence-based taxation is the USA.

The Germans did let me in, of course. I am married to a German, speak the language, and still work full time (I turn 71 this year), and I don't cost them a euro. I do have a Roth IRA back in the USA on which I paid the 39.6% taxes (or whatever it was) due in 2009 or 2010. under US law, what's left is mine free and clear. But I don't dare take a cent out of it because the Germans want another 50% of that, too. Not everyone gets to benefit even if you DO pay them a fortune. Hell, I don't even like beer! (you can tell I never wanted to be a Republican Supreme Court Justice)

[JanMichael]

92. That's curious you can't get health insurance there.

There are several countries that have universal health that after a period of time you can still be a part of.

I didn't realize Germany was not one of those.

[DFW]

105. I CAN get health insurance, but nothing reasonable

If you work for a German employer, things get easier, but I don't. I still work for the same American employer I have worked for these last 40 plus years. The Germans offered me the option of what is called "Privat" insurance, which means you go to one of the non-government-related insurance companies. They make you fill out a form and submit a health evaluation, and they they give you a quote. Just like in the USA, they make you pay up front, and then you make a claim. There are plenty of things that are not covered. My quote for coverage was for €2500 a month, or €30,000 a year, about $32,500 at today's exchange rate. So, I keep my American Blue Cross (the Germans were OK with that), which pays for exactly nothing outside the USA. Still, I don't run up $32,500 a year worth of medical charges in Germany, and what I pay out of pocket there is tax-deductible from my German taxes, which are at about 50%. The 50% rate kicks in at under $100,000 gross, so that matters.

Germany most definitely does NOT offer universal health coverage. That is a myth that seems to be retold every time there is a Democratic primary for president, but it was never reality. My wife was a social worker there for decades (she is German), and she spent much of her time arguing with social services trying to get them to pay for costs incurred by citizens who couldn't afford them. Germany's health insurance system is a patchwork quilt of companies, agencies, and formulas. Due to health issues and mobbing at work, my wife took early retirement at age 60. Between her retirement and the day she turned 65, I paid something like €550 a month for her health insurance. Unlike Blue Cross, that insurance DID cover her, which was lucky, since she got a deadly form of cancer at age 64. She was saved by an alert team of oncologists and a very competent surgeon. She was in the hospital for a month after the operation, which lasted 6 hours. The insurance I was paying for did cover it. At 65, her German version of Medicare kicked in, and while it also doesn't cover everything, it appears more comprehensive than our version.

[womanofthehills]

69. This is an alarming Gallop poll

Americans Split Between Republicans And Democrats For First Time In Decade, Poll Finds—Because More Are Identifying As GOP


KEY FACTS

The poll found 45% identify as Republicans or Republican-leaning Independents, while 44% identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning Independents.

That’s the first time since 2011 that the parties have been roughly evenly divided, with Democrats previously holding at least a three-point advantage over Republicans for every year from 2012 to 2021, including a 46% advantage in 2021.

The poll also marks the first time since 1991 that Republicans have had at least a slight advantage over Democrats, with previous polls in 2002, 2003 and 2011 having them dead even at 45% each. https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/01/12/americans-split-between-republicans-and-democrats-for-first-time-in-decade-poll-finds-because-more-are-identifying-as-gop/?sh=3272cd527bf7

[elias7]

31. If Biden cannot be re-elected on what he has already accomplished, we don't deserve Democracy

If this is all reduced to a popularity contest, or age biases or speech impediment biases or other similarly superficial determinants, we don’t deserve to elect our own leaders.

[albacore]

51. I'm afraid you've described Murika perfectly. nt

[Paladin]

34. Sounds like bullshit to me. (nt)

[Emile]

35. I call bullshit on this poll. No way Trump has a 5 point lead over Joe!

[ProfessorGAC]

38. A Poll 22 Months Out Means Nothing (nt)

[TigressDem]

41. I never get these polls, only the ones that you have to pay to submit.

BUT THIS BOTH SIDE crap is what is the problem.

tRUMP trashed the place as he left office and Biden and DEMs are cleaning up his mess while the DeParty circus is holding the House hostage and throwing virtual monkey poo poo everywhere.

GAUGH, I am SO TIRED of it.

[cilla4progress]

42. Whitmer.

Newsom.

Buttegieg.

With POC VP: Jeffries, Abrams?, Keith Ellison. Michelle!

Need electability + competence/experience.

Govs (executive) usually preferred.

I like Whitmer/Jeffries.

[Kingofalldems]

45. Sounds like the 2022 polls touting the Red Wave.

[iemanja]

57. The media touted a red wave

Not the polls, certainly not the polling aggregators, which predicted a GOP House and close to a Senate toss-up. That was just about right.

The media always gets this stuff wrong, and that NEVER stops them from doing the same thing the next election.

[yardwork]

46. Way too early to be doing these polls.

[lees1975]

47. I have zero confidence in that poll.

Anything in the Harris poll line is suspect.

[Kablooie]

50. And I'll bet by 2024, Trump STILL won't be charged with anything.

He’s going to get a second shot at turning the US into his banana dictatorship.
And since he’s had practice he may succeed this time.

[czarjak]

53. There's more of US! Just vote D.

[Trueblue1968]

55. this is a BS poll and I don't believe it. HOG WASH & MALARKEY

[a kennedy]

70. Ha ha, I see what you did there. 🤣 😂 🤣

[Trueblue1968]

95. Joseph R's fav word !!!

[Just A Box Of Rain]

58. I want Biden to run as much as I've ever wanted anything.

What a great president and what a fine human being.

[LuckyCharms]

62. Hmmm...let's see...

Biden defeated Trump 306-232 in the Electoral College and had a 4-point margin in the popular vote in 2020.

Now this poll says there has been a 9 point swing in those results?

I wonder what in the world could have caused that?

A shitty poll, that's what.

[orleans]

63. my god--let's get trump's orange ass in prison

so the republicons can all clammer for: "convict for president!"

[highplainsdem]

64. Way too early, and way too many polls are inaccurate even when they aren't too early.

Way too many undecided there, too, at 13-18% undecided, compared to margins of 3-5%.

[FloridaBlues]

67. Online poll perhaps. Don't take it seriously

[pnwmom]

100. Online poll FOR SURE. Garbage in, garbage out. n/t

[pecosbob]

78. Probably took their poll at a Waffle House

Last edited Sun Jan 22, 2023, 07:28 PM - Edit history (1)

just down the road from the Villages.

[ificandream]

79. I stopped trusting polls. So fuck this one.

Nobody wants Trump over Biden. Nobody with any intelligence, that is. As far as DeSantis, Biden is much more preferable to the general public that the far right DeSatanis.

[Demsrule86]

80. If you go to the site...they have a bunch of rightwing bullshit posted.

[Hortensis]

81. I'm with those who do not find this credible. I could write poll

questions that would have half the MAGAs preferring Biden to either.

[LiberalFighter]

82. call it bull!

[JohnSJ]

83. If Someone who tried to overthrow the government beats Biden by 5 points, then this country can

go to hell

On the other hand, between the media and the polls telling us how bad the Democrats would do in the midterms, maybe the media and the pollsters can go to hell instead

[Beautiful Disaster]

87. Polls with 20% undecided are pointless and shouldn't even be published.

Unless they have a head-to-head where undecided is not an option, which forces the person taking the poll to make a selection, it's all irrelevant.

Of those 18% who are undecided, 15% could be leaning Biden and that changes the entire dynamics. These types of polls are done for clicks. Not to inform.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

88. After looking at the results I have to agree it's a push poll

[treestar]

90. Forget the presidency

biden will win

concentrate on Congress

will we ever learn that the presidency is not the only thing

gerrymandering to favor repubs is because they pay attention to state legislatures.

they pay attention to school boards.

can we ever get over obsession over the presidency as if its the only thing needed. Will we ever learn? We need state legislatures and school boards.

[ellie]

91. Right.

I believe this.

[bigtree]

96. online poll

...absolutely worthless.

Pure crap polling. The denizen of activists, trolls, and fans.

[lees1975]

97. That kind of political shift in two years is not possible.

A difference of eight million votes, especially with Trump never winning the majority when he ran, can't be overcome that quickly.

And in composite polls, Trump's favorability is hovering around the 30% mark. So this is just a bad poll. I'd love to see the sample numbers and the questions asked, and which responses they screened.

If Trump is not indicted, and makes a run for the GOP nomination, that's on Garland, and that would be trouble. This country wants that orange headed jackass in prison where he belongs. If that doesn't happen, all bets are off.

[PCIntern]

98. It's all bullshit.

[pnwmom]

99. Why are we paying any attention to a self-selected online poll that was probably paid for by R's?

Does this Harvard name suddenly turn a garbage poll into something trustworthy?

Doesn't anyone wonder why there are zero questions about abortion in this poll? Who does that benefit?

How come there's a whole section of questions on Biden's classified documents and only one question regarding Trump's -- which asks if Biden has been treated more leniently than Trump?

[RKP5637]

108. All very good points! n/t

[roamer65]

106. I'll be voting for whomever gets the Democratic nomination.

Period.

[Patton French]

109. Seriously? Heavy sigh... NT

[pinkstarburst]

112. Voters don't want either Trump or Biden

in 2024 due to their age. Biden having to run against DeSantis isn't a good scenario. It's going to come up again and again that he will be 86 at the end of a second term and we will lose independents as well as moderate dems.

How many people can say they have NEVER had a parent or grandparent who had a serious medical event or began experiencing mental decline by 86? That will be in the minds of voters if they see a young, spry DeSantis up against a candidate who will be 86 at the end of his second term. I think Biden was the perfect person to lead us through multiple crises post-covid. He has been an outstanding president. But I think we need someone new in 2024.

[friend of a friend]

116. I will wait until tomorrow's poll when it will be one day closer to the election.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

117. How does Newsom poll?

If Biden doesn't run, I'd vote Newsom.